stoozbet

I hope everyone had a nice NYE & the hangovers aren't too bad!

Looking to get the year off to a good start & I think I've found a nice spot to get us a trade in the 14.25 at Wolverhampton. Everyone seems to be piling into Woolfall Sovereign backing him from 6/4 into 4/5 overnight. It's not hard to see why on the bear form but I think that disguises another story.

I think that Woolfall Sovereign is a better horse over 6 furlongs than the 5f he races over today. He tends to get very out paced in the early parts of his race and the harder they go up front the better for him as he comes late & fast. Over 5 furlongs I would worry that the finishing line will come too soon. This would seem strange to say seeing has he won over 5f at Lingfield 2 times ago, I think he's bang in form & was able to stay close enough through the early part of the race that day to get up to win. He was raised 6lbs for that victory & then went to race over 6f which I think he's better over. He nearly won again hence everyone is piling into him today because they think he can overcome his current mark but I think that over 5f it may be much more difficult for him with the penalty.

The one I really like for a trade is Moorhouse Lad. His trading record is excellent, being available at the prices we require in each of his last 6 starts. He was 2nd to Island Legend last time out (anyone remember that race?!!) and has been trading heavily odds on in his last 2 starts. He likes to be right up with the pace and should get a tow in from Royal Bajan who is drawn just inside him, the race should pan out in a similar way to his last start where he received his tow in from Island Legend, the difference is that Royal Bajan is highly unlikely to be able to last home.

On my figures the runners outside the top 2 haven't been running to near the level required to win this today. Turning for home we should see Moorhouse Lad up with the pace, those around him weakening & hopefully Woolfall Sovereign will be quite far back which all adds up to his price dropping to give us a trade.

Moorhouse Lad can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 at the books (victor) and on betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point all green screen.

Best of luck.

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