In the 14.40 at Lingfield we have a fillie who's form figures read 111216 (last time out when she finished 6th she traded down to 1.63 and was undone by the heavy ground).
The fillie in question is Links Drive Lady, without looking at anything else her results tell the story of a well handicapped horse who is also improving. Upon further investigation we can see that hold up tactics are usually employed on her and this means she often just gets up to win by a short head or or at least less than a length. This prevents the handicapper from treating her too harshly as she's masking her true abilities by only just winning each time.
Going back further in her form she's actually been available to trade in each of her last 9 races. Last time out she was in a class above todays grade & shaped with promise before not getting home in testing conditions at Newbury, there should be no such issues on the AW at Lingfield today. The real clincher for this trade is the booking of Kieren Fallon, on a hold up type you want the most experienced of jockeys on board and whilst he's only ridden this horse once before that ride ended with a victory.
So it's likely to come late & may not be too good for the heart but if Links Drive Lady is making stealth progress weaving her way through the pack deep inside the final furlong then he price should drop enough to get us a trade.
Links Drive Lady has been taken on by the layers somewhat & is now available to back for 2 points at 10.0 at the books (coral, victor) and at 11.0 on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4 to give you a 1 point all round green screen.
Best of luck
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-2 points.