Sometimes you look at a market & just can't understand the prices no matter how much you analyse the form and this is the case in the 16.10 at Ayr. The two horses I'm talking about are Elusive Bonus at 5.3 and Economic Crisis at 13.5.
These two met on the track in September at chester and Economic Crisis finished about 7 lengths ahead over 5 furlongs. Yes Elusive Bonus meets on better terms at the weights today but 7 lengths is a lot to make up. Perhaps the market things there has been some improvement from Elusive Bonus as he ran well to finish 2nd last time out at Redcar, however if you watch that race it was ran at a ridiculous pace by a group of horses fighting for the lead which caused Elusive Bonus to be outpaced through the early part but she needs a strong pace to run at so things were set up perfectly for her to finish strongly as the leaders tired in the final furlong. I wouldn't want my money to be carried by a horse needing the perfect set of circumstances to drop right for her to have a chance.
In contrast Economic Crisis has been in great form, available to trade in each of her last 6 races including to below 1.4 in 3 of those races. She can be ran both from the front where she can often get her rivals off the bridle about 2 furlongs from home as they struggle to live with her natural speed. Hold up tactics have also been used where she can sit behind the leaders & her jockey can remain motionless as the pace increases at the front, this is often eye-catching enough for her price to drop around 2f from home.
So not only do we have a very valid trading prospect the prices also look to be plainly wrong & there may even be some readjustment pre race.
Economic Crisis can be backed now for 2 points at 11.0 at the books (Hills, Paddy, Victor) or 13.5 on Betfair. If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0.
As usual the lay off prices are for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish.
Best of luck.
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Stoozbet's Trading Blog
She still ran a big race to trade down to 7.2 in play and finish 2nd therefore delivering us the required 1 point profit.