A very warm welcome to my Trading blog. Winning at Gambling is an incredibly hard thing to do but it is most definitely possible by carrying out in depth form study and finding the value within markets.
There are many different strategies that you can use to make money on the exchanges. My strategy of choice has been pioneered by one of the legends of the Betfair blog, someone who is no longer on here but is still plying his trade, Jinxy1.
The basic strategy applies to any horse race where you back a horse prior to the race with a view to trading out of your position during the race in order to give yourself an even profit in every outcome.
The basic strategy is to back a horse for 2 pts and then when the price shortens if the horse runs well lay it off for 3 pts to give you an all round profit of 1 pt.
Here's an example:
If we say that 1pt = £10
We would back our horse "Tradeplease" for 2 pts IE £20 at a price of say 10's (decimal odds). I know that to make a return on my investment of 50% that I need the odds to drop by 1/3rd or by 33%. I will then put a LAY bet in the queue at a price of 6.6 for 3 pts which is £30. I will check the "keep in play" button so that the lay bet is still offered after the race starts. I am then hoping for my horse "Tradeplease" to run well so that the price drops to 6.6 or below. When my £30 lay bet gets matched I will have an all green positive position on the race of +£10 regardless of whether my horse goes on to win or not.
No selection is ever bombproof and winning in the long term is about consistency but in order to win you have to be able to loose without it affecting your decision making. Therefore no trade will ever be more than 2 points, this should be 2% of your betting bank.
So for the 1st Selection
In the 16.40 at Ascot the horse I'm looking to trade on is Love Your Looks. The filly is stepping up in class which makes her an unusual selection for me but she's been hugely progressive this year and has traded odds on in her last 5 races. She's got a great attitude and will stick on up the Ascot hill and I expect the step up in trip to suit.
Available to back now at 7.6 for 2 points, put your lay bet in the queue for 3.05 points at 4.8 and hope for the 1 point green screen (after commission).
Another variable to note is that last time out she finished 2nd by a head to Moone's My Name. This horse runs in the 15.30 listed event earlier in the day so if Moone's My Name wins or runs well the form will gain a boost & the price should shorten before the race. However the oposite can also happen, regardless I still expect Love Your Looks to trade nicely.