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By:

Escapee When: 20 Apr 26 23:09

my 'guess' is that the coffee song did better than the market predicted because the market hadn't priced in
his prior Social Media footprint which extended across a few EU countries.

Let us know if you find similar, Who's got the biggest SM foot print of this bunch?

By:

Henry VIII When: 21 Apr 26 11:31

The coffee song was brilliant. Nothing similar in the novelty character this year.

By:

Lifter When: 21 Apr 26 14:16

Thought the coffee song performed as expected. Good tele score but no chance of winning. Sweden was the big shock for me

By:

Henry VIII When: 21 Apr 26 16:58

Do you think Greece lives up to the coffee song?

By:

Angela Rebecchi When: 21 Apr 26 20:17

Tommy Cash was a pretty popular act across parts of Europe and Espresso Macchiato was a much better song than Ferto imho. However, Europe may not agree. It came 9th with the juries securing 98 Jury points and there's a very fair argument that Ferto can beat that.

I didn't expect the coffee song to get 258 TV points and outscore Sweden on 195. France's 50 was also a shock. I didn't think it would do THAT badly.

By:

Angela Rebecchi When: 21 Apr 26 20:25

Israel's price is based on the fact they're likely going to try to unfairly steal the TV win again. You would assume the majority of juries will all mark the song down like the last few years (60 points last year and year before Hurricane only getting 52 points, you would assume with an impartial jury this would have score much better), but had it not been for Austria last year then Israel would have got their victory.

By:

Lifter When: 21 Apr 26 21:20

That only increases Finland's chances IMO. Israel are a real threat, and dividing the points between the top songs means Israel sneak through the middle. They need to rally behind a strong fav

By:

Lifter When: 21 Apr 26 21:21

Apr 21, 2026 -- 4:58PM, Henry VIII wrote:

Do you think Greece lives up to the coffee song?

Would be shocked if Greece gets more than 258 tele votes

By:

Henry VIII When: 21 Apr 26 21:22

Apr 21, 2026 -- 9:21PM, Lifter wrote:

Apr 21, 2026 -- 4:58PM, Henry VIII wrote:Do you think Greece lives up to the coffee song?Would be shocked if Greece gets more than 258 tele votes

Same here.

By:

Angela Rebecchi When: 21 Apr 26 22:39

Apr 21, 2026 -- 9:20PM, Lifter wrote:

That only increases Finland's chances IMO. Israel are a real threat, and dividing the points between the top songs means Israel sneak through the middle. They need to rally behind a strong fav

100%. That's why I kept backing them with more surety than usual during Feb and March

By:

Escapee When: 21 Apr 26 23:14

Israel's price is based on the fact they're likely going to try to unfairly steal the TV win again. You would assume the majority of juries will all mark the song down like the last few years (60 points last year and year before Hurricane only getting 52 points, you would assume with an impartial jury this would have score much better), but had it not been for Austria last year then Israel would have got their victory.

As far as I remember, the ESC issued a veiled rebuke and warning after last years blatant shenanigans.
I can't remember the exact wording but I thought they made it clear they will step in and adjust some
countries tele scores if there are "technical irregularities".

Laying Isreal to win tele vote, especially with this years song, is pretty much nailed on imho.

By:

FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK When: 22 Apr 26 08:50

Norway top 10
7/1 hills

Can’t say many eye catching songs
That fella got something different
Going on

That’s my bet

By:

Henry VIII When: 22 Apr 26 09:36

Nice idea. I'm on them SF2 ToQual.

By:

Henry VIII When: 22 Apr 26 09:38

Escapee why do you think laying Israel Tele Vote Win is a good idea?

By:

Escapee When: 22 Apr 26 11:40

Escapee why do you think laying Israel Tele Vote Win is a good idea?

The 2025 dichotomy between Isreals jury vote and the tele vote embarrassed and damaged the ESC brand.
So the ESC have changed the televoting rules, from reducing the max votes from 20 to 10, to new rules
disallowing (government) funded targeted advertising campaigns.

They are taking action to protect the ESC brand, Isreal winning would be a big set back for the brand, and
it came so close to happening in 2025.

On the other side of the coin, betting against mossad is not a good bet.

By:

Escapee When: 22 Apr 26 11:42

P.S.
I haven't laid them yet as I'm using my bank for May 7th elections.

By:

Escapee When: 22 Apr 26 11:50

P.P.S.

if you think the vast majority of isreals 2025 televote across all of Europe was legitimate then
back them again this year, fill your boots.

g'luck

By:

Henry VIII When: 22 Apr 26 12:33

Thanks, I did indeed fill my boots, mainly in T10 and SF1 ToQual. And I accept there is a risk if the EBU disqualifies them for foul play.

Azerbaijan allegedly bought 2011 although it was a decent production so no proof that the final result was altered. There were murmurs they tried it in 2012 too. That was by paying students to make hundreds of votes. The Israelis last year apparently put too much money into advertising, so not as bad as Azer. (I did notice the Azer jury gave them 12 points).

So yes, I think "the vast majority of isreals 2025 televote across all of Europe was legitimate". Just people who are on the other side to you and the other side to the die hard fans. And your side are silent because you don't get to vote. (I'm neutral in these things where people take sides because I think there's more fake news than news. I do feel for the ordinary people but equally for both peoples.)

I'm not sure the EBU leadership cares that much about Israel winning. It would certainly create publicity. Probably unlikely but difficult to price.

By:

Henry VIII When: 22 Apr 26 12:40

Just following from that last line - they may put the word out to juries that Israel winning would be negative but more impactful maybe just the jury demographics' own feelings, having listened to sm etc. Because the song quality of 2024 and 2025 definitely deserved more.

By:

Henry VIII When: 22 Apr 26 12:50

Feelings maybe more relaxed because US brokered ceasefire since 10 Oct and I've heard from someone who's been to the Palistine side there's lots of building work going on (including 5* hotels !?!?)

By:

Angela Rebecchi When: 22 Apr 26 13:51

Stopping Israel from finding a way to get televotes could be a very difficult task indeed. The juries somehow already know, or are naturally inclined, to downvote them.

2nd in the TV 2024 with 323 points and 1st in the TV 2025 with 297 points. This is a much weaker year too as there's nothing even remotely close to Baby Lasagna to stop them. It would be great for the competition if they didn't unfairly win the televote again. I'm inclined to agree with Escapee and that the EBU will have done enough to stop it, but in such a weak year, I'm not paying to find out at around 3.0

By:

Escapee When: 22 Apr 26 15:43

I'm not sure the EBU leadership cares that much about Israel winning

4 or 5 countries have not entered this year, as a protest against isreal being in the competition.
Huge risk of more countries boycotting 2027 if its held in isreal.

What we do know for certain is that ESC tries hard to appear apolitical, going as far as banning some words and phrases in songs.

Holding the competition in a war zone, the most controversial political hot spot in "Europe", with a possible back drop of air raid sirens and venue evacuations... seems unlikely that the EBU leadership
would not care much about it.

By:

Henry VIII When: 22 Apr 26 18:25

I think EBU did care very much in prior years but they may be suffering from fatigue of the superfans, who have always personally attacked the leadership over Israel. It would never be held in Israel next year even if they won but all signs are that the war is over.

By:

Henry VIII When: 26 Apr 26 08:47

I wonder if we'd do better not actually seeing any song? But still continuing to go on data. My view on Denmark's chances recently changed, originally didn't like it just due to meaningless subjective personal taste.

By:

Cider When: 26 Apr 26 17:44

Not sure Escapee (well named) has considered that the juries underscored Israel in 2025, as many probably hold his views and were biased.

It's also not that long since Ukraine won in a landslide, evidently political televoting, and a huge disparity with the televote.

Some people can't help themselves, however.

By:

Cider When: 26 Apr 26 17:50

H, I have nailed my eurovision winning formula, and it definitely involves not listening to a single song before the semis. Or any data for that matter! The law of averages suggests it is bound to go pear shaped at some point, but every one of my bets last year got weighed in. To be honest I feel like you could win just playing the shifts in running, but it does rely on there not being a runaway winner.

By:

Escapee When: 26 Apr 26 19:57

Not sure Escapee (well named) has considered that the juries underscored Israel in 2025, as many probably hold his views and were biased.

Of course I've considered it.... at length.

It's also not that long since Ukraine won in a landslide, evidently political televoting, and a huge disparity with the televote.

I've also considered this at length, In a nutshell, without details, ukraine winning was good for the brand at the time, The opposite is true of Isreal winning it in 3 weeks.

Some people can't help themselves, however.

Your posts often show this to be true.

P.S. There are many ways to win or lose, it's unlikely we use the same strategy.
Like you, I'm using the same strategy as I did last year, which gave me the winner 2 months prior to the event.
Dunno if it'll work this year, different field, different set of boxes to tick. but at 7/1 I'm back to back one horse and enjoy the race and cheer loudly If I win or take a loss and try to learn about
the nuances of the event for next time.

G'luck.

By:

Escapee When: 26 Apr 26 20:07

I wonder if we'd do better not actually seeing any song? But still continuing to go on data. My view on Denmark's chances recently changed, originally didn't like it just due to meaningless subjective personal taste.

Denmark's entry is extremely strong based on:
It's very much of the same genre of the last two winners (pretty boy, pretty voice)
He's the only boy in the market. If a boy is going to win it for the 3rd year, it will be him.

But having seen last years winners odds move from 4.x in March, to 7.x in mid April, I wouldn't put to much weight on the market adjusting because it's picked the winner.

Eurovision 2026 -- Winner

40 Runners £994,144 Matched

			104.6%	99%
Finland	2.72	2.74	2.76	2.78	2.8	2.82	£377,153
	£457	£113	£32	£56	£141	£36
Denmark	7.4	7.6	7.8	8	8.4	8.6	£108,332
	£78	£43	£2	£31	£23	£30
France	8.2	8.4	8.6	8.8	9	9.2	£96,976
	£190	£39	£103	£13	£128	£121
Australia	9.4	10	10.5	11	11.5	12	£76,215
	£3	£180	£100	£30	£158	£33
Greece	10.5	11	11.5	12.5	13	13.5	£67,677
	£56	£51	£64	£174	£110	£517
Israel	13.5	14	14.5	15	16	16.5	£53,908
	£201	£44	£137	£280	£264	£8
Sweden	28	29	30	32	34	36	£46,053
	£47	£130	£53	£7	£137	£125
Romania	32	34	36	38	40	42	£21,390
	£5	£38	£2	£5	£20	£22
Ukraine	40	42	44	46	48	50	£21,964
	£67	£36	£92	£17	£108	£124
Italy	44	46	48	50	55	65	£19,412
	£15	£39	£9	£35	£5	£21
Cyprus	75	80	85	110	120	130	£8,228
	£2	£4	£8	£15	£35	£32
plus 29 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

By:

Cider When: 26 Apr 26 20:15

You might want to have it both ways, in the real world you can't!

The 2025 dichotomy between Isreals jury vote and the tele vote embarrassed and damaged the ESC brand.
So the ESC have changed the televoting rules, from reducing the max votes from 20 to 10, to new rules

You're claiming that the tele vote embarrassed and damaged the ESC brand, and that was [i]the dichotomy between Isreals jury vote and the tele vote[/i]

But there was a much larger disparity in 2022, when kalush scored a record televoting score. Unlike Israel however, it determined the winner, which happened to be a warzone.

Ergo, a purely political winner is perfectly acceptable if the politics that led to it are shared with the organisers.

I couldn't give a shyte who wins EV, outside of turning a profit, I just don't like gross hypocrisy or anti-semitism. That obviously includes the countries who rubbed their halos with Mr sheen, and pulled out this year.

By:

Escapee When: 26 Apr 26 20:31

You're claiming that the tele vote embarrassed and damaged the ESC brand,

I'm making that assertion based on subsequent statements of intended actions and press releases.
You've obviously not appraised yourself of these things.

I dunno why you're getting so het up about my analysis, especially when you're claiming to just trot up when the race starts without doing any of your own prior analysis.

P.S.

May I be the first to congratulate you for winning this year.

I offer my congratulations to you winning this year as like last year you won't put up any horses you're backing and will tell everyone you won, easy game.
So Congratulations to you for this year, we tip our hats in respect.

By:

Henry VIII When: 27 Apr 26 10:20

But there was a much larger disparity in 2022, when kalush scored a record televoting score.

I'm not with you Cider because in 2022 Ukraine won tele and were 3rd with juries, so no disparity.

Only way to solve (kind of) the Israel problem is for all EBU countries to vote Israel go/stay. That was actually going to happen but was cancelled after the ceasefire last year which has held so far.

I agree with you about the politics of the fans but I'm not sure how much it's also held by the EBU. The EBU have been more neutral walking a tightrope pretty well.

By:

stu When: 27 Apr 26 13:13

One problem is that they didn't take this stance on Russia - as soon as that happened it was Russia straight out.

By:

Henry VIII When: 27 Apr 26 14:11

It seems worse when an actual state is attacked (rightly or wrongly). I think Palestine should be a state, and should have been 60 years ago but at the same time I love "Michelle". In a normal year it could win. Hopefully we'll soon be back to those Netta days.

By:

Cider When: 27 Apr 26 14:48

I wrote a longish reply which some prat has deleted. They are trying to make the forum unusable. I'm not going to type it out again.

There was a huge disparity with the televote and jury vote in 2022, and Ukraine came fourth with the juries. Though, palpably, the political zeitgeist would have impacted juries' scoring as well, they don't operate in a vacuum.

Israel was attacked, H. And the 'Palestinian' protests around the world were planned before they did anything in response, before any hostages were rescued. However the whole point is that politics plays a part in decision making or it doesn't. It's not a debate about the rights and wrongs of any conflict because it's never cut and dried. The people of a country are not responsible for the choices of their nominal leaders or terrorists acting on their behalf (as they see it).

By:

Henry VIII When: 27 Apr 26 18:37

Wiki says Ukraine was 3rd with the juries and 16 points away from jury winner but even if it was 4th I don't think of that as a huge disparity. Isn't it more often the case that the winner wins either tele or jury but is lower down with the other?

I roughly agree about the politics. I wonder how the juries will mark Israel this year? What is your pick for the win? I remember when you came on the forum last year you said "why can't this win" after hearing Austria.

By:

Cider When: 27 Apr 26 18:59

439 televote (1st) and 192 jury vote (4th)

I know nothing about this year at all yet, I just remember it happens at the start of May so beginning to get ready for viewing the semi finals blind now! According to a post on this thread it seems the scoring system might have been changed so obviously I'll need to check that out.

I feel like you need to play to your strengths, for me that's my first instinct. Following the build up for months, not only can you get entrenched in your opinions, and biased by your bets, I find that I was overanalysing tiny things that are not material. Plus of course, time is money and you need to win plenty if investing hours and hours and that creates a pressure of its own. The counter to that is you're unlikely to find any huge ricks and if there's a runaway winner then there won't be any compelling opportunities. The temptation then is to look for reasons to get the fav beat when there might not be any plausible ones. But it worked well for me since 2021.

By:

Henry VIII When: 27 Apr 26 19:02

"They are taking action to protect the ESC brand, Isreal winning would be a big set back for the brand, and it came so close to happening in 2025".

If they're allowed in, and atm they are, it should be a fair contest, but it's not, and that's not good for brand.

By:

Henry VIII When: 27 Apr 26 19:10

My figures were SF1 oops but I still don't think 1st and 4th was a huge disparity as there were far fewer votes in total from the juries.

By:

Henry VIII When: 27 Apr 26 19:18

Israel oc has a massive disparity and looking at the Win market 15.5 people are betting that might stop this year. Be funny if they won (apologies from a hopeless disrupter) but I think they'll probably by under-marked again. They send quality stuff but the two girls of the last two years did get political. Not so, so far from Noam and his song is not political (although they'll always be some obscure interpretation).

By:

Cider When: 27 Apr 26 19:25

It's almost certain that Israel will get a political uplift in the televote and a negative political tariff from jurors. They won't get a kalush level of televote though and the juror tariff will be too heavy to overcome. If the order of play is the same as recent years, it would be most likely better to back them ir on the OR, if fancied.