I mean maybe he was close, but the facts say shona just beat him in a vote

The camp leader was a body blow for Jack as he's just they type who normally do disproportionately well in those votes, but not for Tom, as he'd already got the gig as hemsby said.  Not great for Lisa either as I thought she could possibly get it.  He's still featuring a fair bit and provides plenty, just not getting the big ticket item.  I did lay him a bit today as he'd shortened but I stopped because I was beginning to feel concerned it might be inside info. as there was no good reason why he shortens now that I know of.  (which doesn't mean there isn't one) He can still win imo, and still my biggest winner because of HS bets.  I'm never taking him red on here.  Does feel time is running out to me though

There's obvious special circumstances re Shona getting it,  the fact that Alex wanted her to win and how it would be great for her confidence if she did.  Which was just before the lines opened.  Added to that, there were prolly a fair few proxy votes too, given Aitch and Ginge weren't in it.  Which is ofc a pointer to their popularity as GB already pointed out.

Viewing as a casual. given the comments made by Alex yiu would have to say Shona was long odds on to be camp leader. That said if Lise, Tom or Jack were to be a significant threat to the front two they should have had enough support.
The only vote known to the insiders at this stage was last nights VTS so Lisas.Toms, Shonas Vogues and Eddies are at this stage unknown. Todays market moves show a distinct lack of support gor both Ruby and jack so both can be discounted from a winning POV.

GB
The Bible also says 'Thou shalt not kill'; how to reconcile this with Leviticus, I'll leave to the theologians to argue about! I, as a mere mortal, kinda have to figure out which takes precedence and, along with 100% of Christians, have opted not to kill anyone, rather than going around stoning homosexuals. That's islam's thing, not ours. Nor mine

As to ' begrudgingly tolerate gay people', well, as explained upthread, I don't care what people do in private, so 'through donkeys years of rtv' it's never stopped me backing them. Indeed, the most recent one I can think of was JoJo, and I started her train!



fll
Righty oh! Your forum, your rules. I'd been on thin ice there since posting stuff about The Don; the 'virus' and vax boll0x, Russiagate, Hunter's laptop etc, so no great surprise. At least it'll save me the ignominy of posting my disastrous 'Naps' game score and, if I ever get to The Pearly Gates, a bit of being Religiously Persecuted along the way might negate some of my sins!

Wouldn't mind but, having won three of the first five years, the new member who's won the three? four? years since then isn't having a great year, so the lead? joint lead? was there for the taking. Not sure but, even after a mare of a season so far, I think if Ruby wins, I might have a chance

I'm fully aware that the polling is the wrong demo and doesn't pick up on Aitch and Ginge's support.  The Camp Leader vote is imo much more indicative of public support

I'm surprised that you think trials still influence the outcome. When we had full access to the voting numbers, in the app era, whether they had trial or not, the vote hardly moved. Even the general edit didn't seem to have much effect.

Perhaps it would do if it was perceived as very unfair who did them (eg someone copping all of them, or dodging them).

more or less, it is decided by the time vts starts. the one doubt is JJ, but that was when they stopped publishing the voting. JJ was practically invisible for the whole series.

Just given my 5 votes for Tom.

I've been derelicting my duties as the train driver.  Think he will lead the vote at the final 2 stage myself

I'd prefer Ginge at this point but doubt there is much in it at all.  Keep going back to The Camp Leader vote which Aitch won ahead of Ginge.  The fact it's close is a good thing for Tom, and he is a great alternative to their sweet stealing and whingeing about washing up

disagree army, but Aitch's supporters are more motivated, so it maybe in a much smaller vote that made the difference

Aitch was polling very badly the day before the Camp Leader vote.  He drifted a fair chunk in the preceding day to the CL vote on the back of it.  At some point on this thread I stated that I had 4 greens Tom, Ginge, Shona and Lisa, which I believe was around that time.  I laid him on the back of that poll.  He might not be polling great now, but he was polling worse then.  I don't believe his support will show up on polls, but we will see.

The clip from the press centre of today's trials, makes Tom look like a group horse up against handicappers

Tom's stories on insta are fully loaded up with support from everywhere and everyone

15 years of CGD i can see those hard core fans voting in droves

Tom still incredible value. Ginge and Aitch were a good foil - full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

I've recently brought Ginge onside, the market will only change 10% when Shona goes and Ginge and Tom have been bouncing about more than that. Tom is mega for me though and with the eating trial. Shona is a loss.

Does ITV still give percentages? I think it might be closer than most finals.