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*. *. *.... S P O T Y... 2025 . .*.*.*.
*. *. *.... S P O T Y... 2025 . .*.*.*.
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Replies: 3,839
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Something that makes total sense now lol, bbc knew europe was winning the team award. And quite possibly, people with voting knowledge.
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Quite possibly, interesting spike down on Wednesday night, before the layers fought back a bit
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The golf voters actually got their act together, rory winning could involve casuals, but you wouldn't thing they'd vote ryder cup
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Think
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Three people I knew all voted lionesses without even thinking. I voted for the ruggers
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Yup Lando not involved in team, so they couldn't rule him out, otherwise it was effectively a mirror of the main award.
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Hello Betfair Team,
I’m writing to raise a concern regarding in-play betting activity on the Betfair Exchange during the BBC Sports Personality of the Year broadcast last night. The specific markets in question were: • “Winner Without Rory McIlroy” • Top 3 (Without Rory McIlroy) In particular, I noticed unusual and highly directional price movement on Ellie Kildunne in the Top 3 / Without Rory McIlroy market immediately before the final result was announced. Key observations: • Ellie Kildunne’s price contracted sharply and decisively shortly before the official announcement. • The move appeared non-reactive to anything shown on screen at the time, with no VT, commentary cue, or voting update that would reasonably explain it. • Liquidity entering the market looked confident rather than speculative, suggesting the move was not driven by normal public betting behaviour. • The timing strongly implied the market may have been acting on advanced or privileged information rather than anticipation. Given this was a live public-vote award, the accuracy and timing of the move stood out as highly unusual compared to typical entertainment or awards-based markets. I’m not making a formal allegation, but I would like to understand: • Whether Betfair reviews late in-play exchange movements where prices shift decisively just before results are announced. • What safeguards are in place to monitor for early result knowledge or information asymmetry in these markets. I would appreciate confirmation that this activity can be reviewed internally. Thank you for your time. |
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OK Mr figures
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Well put.
You should also mention the similarly well-informed lays of McTominay before the shortlist was released. |
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Regarding Lando for future reference to anyone reading this back, I’d say Lando was written off immediately after winning the drivers championship by the market (Rory backers) as his price shortly came into 3.5 before rapidly drifting to 6.0 after being around 5.0 at the start of the final F1 race.
By this point Rory had been confidently backed into the 1.90 range. A move that could not be explained definitively by anyone |
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Hi. Thank you for getting in touch and for taking the time to share such a detailed account of your observations during the BBC Sports Personality of the Year markets.
We take all concerns regarding market integrity and unusual betting patterns seriously. While we can’t comment on specific customer activity or positions, please be assured that Betfair has internal processes in place to monitor our markets, including in‑play activity, for any irregular or suspicious betting behaviour. In this case, we will ensure that your feedback and the details you’ve provided are passed to our Integrity and Risk teams for review. These teams regularly analyse market movements and, where necessary, liaise with relevant bodies to investigate any potential issues. Thank you again for bringing this to our attention. - Lee ♠️ |
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Send them the mctominay figures up the thread shraine
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A nice slab of £2.75K up to lay @1.5. Very confident
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There are some movements that can be explained, army.
If the market is fairly weak, at the time (e.g. people holding back in case Lando wins) then a decent bet on Rory will move it. Last night Chloe was matched at 2.0 for no apparent reason, but that was probably someone using an auto cash-out. The one on the BF site will take terrible prices if you are desperate enough to use it. |
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Having known Team Europe were winning maybe things swayed slightly towards Rory than planned but don’t think it made any difference to his motivated vote tbh.
The clip of his kid putting may of been added by production and Rory spontaneously crying over the murdered Southport girls came as surprise but he’s a father after all and was probably feeling tired and emotional of a very long week, flying to and from Florida. Bottom line remains the same, he simply deserved it, in one of the toughest years ever. |
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Cynical thinking army, and the bbc is cynical. No point in trying to get him beat if he would likely win anyway. It was engineered to get him to think about his family. Everyone who saw the VTs said he had the best one, and he had the best interview lined up too, no doubt. With Ellie second.
He had a compelling case to deserve it, plus the bbc ultimately went with it. Like I was stating yesterday, that didn't mean it was incorrect to oppose him at the odds, but on the journey, his backers got a run of green lights. |
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I think you have to conclude, if the footy ladies couldn't win the team award, they weren't winning the OR. Even if it had been only one nom. I wonder if they were even third in the team vote.
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Someone lost over a grand there. Though maybe they had her at the great early prices
That wasn't the final graph alas, I was too busy with managing my own position. The insider was too greedy. Once it became clear to me someone knew the outcome, I was mopping up some of the smaller amounts at lower prices. Hope the feds don't come for me lol |
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Yes, best VT and best interview by 18 holes and green lights all the way to the clubhouse
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Before the voting lines closed for the initial time you could lay Lando in the w/o market at around 1.4. Kildunne was available at 8 for small money. Shortly after the lines were reopened I put up a lay of Lando up at 1.15 (iirc) which was best price at the time. Next time I looked Kildunne was odds on.
cool_hand_luke posted @ 20.56 that "one site has already announced Rory as the winner" |
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It was literally IAC II, no attempt to hide or disguise it, just whacking up big chunks on Ellie to back and Lando to lay. Originally they tried for 3 on Ellie, with about £5K
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It could have gone wrong ha.
If you compared it to the OR, was ridiculously out of line. I mean maybe 10% chance it was an idiot or hedging, but it very much looked like knowledge to me. |
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Lando was never presented with a trophy. A fair few people would maybe have known after the top 3 announcement that he wasn't getting one and not to worry about recording that. And it was that info that got leaked?
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Years ago I heard they had to be prepared for anyone not there placing or winning. So BBC peeps in the background with replica awards.
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It was a new voting system, and had a cut off. Fair chance that's how it was exposed. It wasn't even made public that there would be a cut off until the last minute.
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The show remains dynamic, but context matters. We’ve now had four female winners in a row, including two Lionesses. At the same time, viewing figures have been declining, alongside a growing narrative that certain “huge achievements” are in fact underperforming. Whether that rhetoric is a cause or merely correlated with falling audiences is open to interpretation, but it clearly forms part of the backdrop.
Against that backdrop, it seems entirely plausible that the BBC were concerned about a Chloe victory—contrary to the popular hypothesis that she would be pushed towards glory. The issue isn’t gender, but perception: a win for Chloe could have been framed as rewarding comparatively little, especially in a year where Rory has achieved genuine sporting and golfing immortality. Chloe beating Rory may well have been seen internally as a potential nail in the coffin for the show’s credibility. It’s notable that only a few weeks ago Chloe was trading at a shorter price than Rory. The subsequent drift aligns neatly with the point at which insiders would have known the shortlist. And, as we saw yesterday, those insiders appeared confident that Rory was cruising to victory, with Lando and Ellie clearly ahead of the rest—Ellie ultimately overtaking Lando late on (no pun intended but I'll take it). |
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It was more that I don't feel you could bank on them not pushing Chloe to victory. It could have gone either way. The BBC often doubles down as it thinks it is always right and virtuous. But someone high up in the food chain decided not to here, and Europe winning the team award meant that it wasn't likely on the table anyway.
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The year Giggs won the PFA award it was a market I had some interest in. IIRC I had some money on Vidic. I knew it was a market closer to the time you had to be very careful. Anyway, I had a sixth sense that someone knew Giggs had won and was being really cute, so I tested it and took everything that was available on Giggs from maybe 4.5 to 5 or 5 to 5.5. It wasn't a lot, mebbe £50-£75 in stakes. Was along those lines. Within 30 minutes or similar he was odds on. My take was as soon as that someone thought he wasn't the only one that knew, he took the lot.
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Whoever knew that the Scottish lad didn't make the 6 knew not to scare the horses. They predominately left his OR money and only played in the t3. Even in the t3, they didn't take everything straight away.
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It's also cheaper to buy in the t3
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They were laying 60+, so not much in it. I think OR was around 90/100
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Scott was small fry. They were pretty smart as made good money from much larger amounts trading Rory in and Chloe out !
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No point whining in here, you do have options
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Laying Scott for £100 large prices or thousands at average backs Rory 2.5 and average lays Chloe 2.5 - that's where the insider trading made their good money knowing the shortlist
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50% extra
I mean you're right, but I've seen bets that I can't afford to take, even when I know they've lost already. Like Biden in the US Prez election. You know you'll win, but you run out of funds. (CLYDEBANK can put me in the aftertiming thread for that) |
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I've already spoken with Betfair about it. I suggest others do too. The more they hear about it the likelier they are to close the accounts of the insiders and let us play these markets in a fairer environment
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