Specials
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IM A CELEBRITY 2024
IM A CELEBRITY 2024
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Replies: 833
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5K lump waiting for Danny, must of sh@t in Dean's gob
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I think you'd just plough your 5k down to 1.1 if he'd done that
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Not a bad bet, probably a value bet.
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Oti looking like she had had enough
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The Danny fake laugh is back
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& production assistance for Rooney
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Not subtle are they
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Market working out that Maura has no chance. This aint cbb
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The money is saying (by its absence) that the market had it about right. Obviously GK and Alan right out of it, and Rooney not polling well either.
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The market says Alan and GK have no chance
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yes and Danny solid so obviously leading as anticipated
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Insiders don't have £50k sitting in their BF account.
This is the same person who laid Melvin for £25k and backed Tulisa Maura and Danny for chunks. Possibly are Baltic friend |
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I'm pretty good at recognising patterns if I say so myself. Those patterns mirror the last few years when the vtw has started. It doesn't really change much from my betting perspective but I would touch any of those three runners with a positive bet. Don't really see those unsophisticated lays in any other liquid specials market, especially correlated with the vtw opening. Let's see how it pans out tho.
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would not
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Do itv notice the betting patterns? Do they care ?
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If there is a leak, probably happening in the AU part of the set up, ie outsourced.
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Dean not in much of the edit,
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Quite the plunge on Rooney after being matched 16ish, before yesterday's broadcast.
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Coleen might last longer in the jungle than Wayne at Plymouth
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If we're waiting for her to doing something interesting. The 'abortion' chat broadcast last night was more producer intervention. We do have a precedent for this type of runner doing surprisingly well though.
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Soz, miscarriage wasn't it.
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Eating trials getting tedious
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Oti coming across well now, definitely stepped up a gear
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Itv want a cleen win i suspect
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No cleen sheet for Plymouth haha
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market screaming obviously, 16s into 5/2 with nothing material happening. plus Danny shifting right out. Perhaps it was a false flag on Rooney yesterday, these look like the informed shifts.
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Dunno, I've been backing, and i knarr feck all
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Just that the prods are pushing her hard
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These female winners often seem a last week thing, gio, charlie etc
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I had to lay Coleen at the price and get more on Danny. Time will tell if it's fixed for her with a decent part of the edit every day.
I don't think it was Coleen's best foot forward talking about her posh bar underground tunnel and two lakes. |
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But the contrast is there with people saying she as all this, and is still so normal. Doesn't harm her at all
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Nowt different tonight. Nothing that justifies the market moves. As we know, the app vote doesn't oscillate much at all, so if she does win she'll already be in front.
I've brought her onside as the percentage call on this thing is not to fight the heavy money. Nothing justifies Danny doubling in price either. tbh she's deadly dull and notwithstanding the palpable prod support I wouldn't be interested in backing her to win without the avalanche of market support. Maybe giving away profit, I'll live with that. |
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As mach states there is a big effort to move Oti up the table, I suspect she was asked to do the trial yesterday and it was softened. Doable as it's so close at the bottom with 12 runners. Pity we don't get the data any more.
I suppose it's a bit different to the Gio year, I felt they moved the production to her as she was going to win. Rooney is the big money signing, they've been spamming her itv show every night and has had obvious production support all along. But done pretty much nothing with it, hence still being friendless yesterday afternoon. |
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If we get a friends and family task where Coleens kids are on the other side of a screen and Coleen is crying it will all be over.
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The wifeys are voting cleen
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It's already won (or near as dammit). The app era is completely different, the edit from this point hardly shifts the voting at all. Should Rooney win she will already polling at the top, or second at worst. People have different opinions on whether there are insiders or not, but the broad destination is determined by the time the vts starts.
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The only thing that changes it in my view is that the distribution of votes moving from an eliminated runner to the remaining runners cannot always be mathematically equal. So say they go out in market order, and Richard's voters have a second preference out of the last 2, would they go Danny or Rooney. Maybe you'd lean to Danny, because of the action on the show. Although to be fair, he's not exactly been riveting either. It's something that insiders can't account for, though.
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"The app era is completely different, the edit from this point hardly shifts the voting at all" Why do you think that is Cider? I know one reason is that the votes get carried forward so the fav, if it's a stable fav, when voting starts will always have an advantage. But I can't remember how they did it before the app.
Borg I agree that would be good for her. She's having a decent run already. Danny has a six year old, a single child, also potential for tears. |
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I put a fair bit of analysis into it when it moved to predominately app, and all the voting data was still being published. It showed that the positions remained virtually static in each show, whatever happened during the period from vts being initiated up to the result. Really surprising initially, so for example where a runner had a btt, it hardly impacted their pv. As above, what it can't account for is the potential distribution of votes of the eliminated people, obviously the deeper you go the more 'new' votes are potentially up for redistribution to next preferences. In a nutshell, the voting pattern is established from the very first vts, and it remains consistent whatever happens on the show. Presumably there's an uplift in voter participation at the end as well.
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