Specials
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###EU Jimmy###
###EU Jimmy###
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Replies: 787
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"fits into place" or "gets her stake on at long odds"?
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PLP know if they put a few up v Jezza it will split vote...they need a h2h. In a VTS marmite in a multiway does well
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Well, I`m sure Alex Salmond is cleaning up, in this market! Great friends wit Harry Redknapp...
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Though in terms of momentum I think its probably game up for Jezza. At some point head/pragmatism will take over from heart; need to beat the Tories. Also who will get a vote? The £3ers? Full members? The PLP will be phoning Cowell for advice.
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Ignore last post tbh I'm clueless at the moment (as usual...to save bear a post)...not betting for now
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Me too, it seems, with Eagle announcing a press conference, where she`ll declare her challenge1
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i'm poised and waiting for the signal.
the signal is 'oompa lumpa'. when i hear it i will go trigger happy. |
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Don't be greedy Tom...remember....
Oompa loompa doompety da If you're not greedy, you will go far You will live in happiness too Like the Oompa Loompa Doompety do |
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lol you are too funny man
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Confirmed she will announce tomorrow at 3pm
I wouldn't be in a rush to take short odds she beats Corbym |
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its good of henry to describe politics as mostly a forum for political views as imo its a place where people throw sh1t at each other (i am afraid i must include myself in that). since the autumn i think there have been three threads started by people trying to make a nickle by gambling on political outcomes (and one of them was started by me and got zero responses
 ). my conclusion is that there arent that many gamblers on politics.most of the politics forum are right wing and were voting out yet when asked about gambling on the outcome the few who answered said they were punting on remain winning to numb the pain as they thought it would break in favour of the status quo! even on the night most were more happy that out may win than seeing the potential cash return. i was told that one of the polling firms used by many big city firms changed their polling methodology in the final few days and went from predicting out to remain on the voting day itself. i dont know if this is true but it would help explain why the market went crazy on the 23rd. the market got this one wrong big time and (as george says) this could and should have been a major day for those with a bit of foresight. when i came to specials i said i was the worst punter ever and this is just another in a very long list where i didnt do very well despite correctly predicting the outcome . tim's comparison between specials punters and politics punters is right; he only heard of ben bradshaw recently but won a fair bit on the referendum whereas i've known of bb for years and made pennies  . what's worse for me is that i traded out very early so could have gone back in again for many, many hours but because the price was dropping my mindset wouldnt let me even though the lower prices were still massive value. the prices were wrong for fecking hours, imo even when leave went 1.01 it was still value to any big hitters as it should have gone no offers long before. that's more than enough of the diary of jolly, mug punter of the year, ad infinitum.there is massive worlwide discontent with the political establishment and trump, despite the fact that he is nothing but a charlatan, is tapping into this. there's still a fair few months until the potus election and imo their economy hasnt got much upside but has plenty of downside which would benefit trump. who voted for brexit? angry, white, old people. the young were in favour of remain but didnt turn up. what do we know about bernie's potus effort? he excited the youngsters but they couldnt be bothered to turn up. trump's supporters are much more motivated than clintons imo. i am not saying he will win but the precedent is there (i should mention some republicans are still trying to block him). any views welcome as ever. i thought bozo was bad value when he went odds on for tory leader as they have a long history (9 elections over 60 years i'm lead to believe) of turning over the favourite. however, with lots of MPs even those who favoured remain supporting him and thinking the tory faithful like him i'm not so sure. the second favourite, may, has done a lot of work going up and down the country for several years trying to build support, will it prove worthwhile? the tory grassroots decide and who are they? old, white people i guess. more questions than answers here too. labour, what the feck are this shower up to? i wonder if the members would still support corbyn when he cant win a general election? i think if eagle beats corbyn she would only be a temporary leader. |
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1,500 words exactly. A-
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1499 too many for bear
 sorry all |
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jolly, give us a bit of history;
How long lurking? What were you betting on? Winning? What are you betting on? Winning? |
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FFS jolly. WTF is all that shyte
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Re the idea that we have less idea about POTUS than Americans:
I didn't follow the arguments in Brexit. Personally I could see arguments for both sides and was unsure. However I knew that if I follow the debates I would mistakenly think that the arguments I agreed with carried more weight with the populous than they did, and would think that the arguments I hated would be rejected more than they were. We all have convictions here, and they can get in the way. I did do something however that we all can, and many did: follow the polls; have an idea of historical precedent in the relation between such polls and reality; understand that 1.12 was a wtf price in a very close campaign before most had voted let alone had their vote counted. Therefore we are at no disadvantage with POTUS (although I haven't got into it myself much yet, not much movement atm). |
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Jolly why is Trump a charlatan?
I have a broad idea of his aims but I know nothing about him personally. |
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GB2 has a `US Election` thread going, on which Jolly has set forward his views.
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sorry for the dissertation.
gove is standing for tory leader, bozo now drifting like a barge. |
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bozo is out
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Mark Carney saying interest rates will be cut this summer. Lovely irony. Younger remainers helped with mortgages and old brexiters with no mortgages but fixed incomes will get less interest from capital to live on. Love it.
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OK, a few posts that need answering;
Hemsby, not sure if you`ve been following this thread, but I`m entirely `anti-Clinton`, rather than `pro-Trump`. As things have turned out, that`s left me supporting him, but previously I`ve been wanting Cruz, Rubio, even Bernie; ANYONE except her. Personally, I`d be voting for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson; clearly a life-long dopehead who wants as little governmental interference in our lives as possible. Including legalising cannabis, my kind of politician. Was pondering how to reply to a couple of other points, when it occurred to me to have a read of the Brexit thread, `EU Jimmy`. Sure enough, I found a couple of posts on there which I think may well be relevant to this POTUS malarkey. Henry VIII 24 Jun 16 04:36 polls are great. for often creating value by opposing them. Brexit was pretty much a global one-off event, unprecedented, and the polls were all wrong. Trump/Clinton is the strangest US GE ever, why would the polls be more accurate than they were with Brexit? Particularly as the `embarrassment factor` for the shy Trumpers would be much higher, (FAR HIGHER!!!) than it was for Brexiters. As for falling for what he market is telling us, let`s remind ourselves of Brexit; Angela Rebecchi 24 Jun 16 06:13 Staying In 1.06 £11,680 £130,230 1.07 £3,956 £314,668 1.08 £2,648 £121,722 1.09 £6,230 £355,232 1.10 £5,849 £697,291 1.11 £5,183 £811,180 1.12 £2,235 £1,848,594 1.13 £2,016 £1,187,194 1.14 £3,242 £1,858,230 1.15 £1,338 £1,626,503 1.16 £2,177 £1,182,682 1.17 £3,305 £1,436,152 1.18 £3,380 £1,217,718 1.19 £210 £1,903,832 1.20 £9,679 £751,541 So, the best part of £15,000,000 matched at or below Clinton`s current price. And, what`s worse this was all done as the voting was CLOSING!!! Yes, 1.06 at 10pm that evening, and for chunks. In total, £110,000,000 matched. Every single penny matched was at prices entirely determined by polls yet, in a more extreme situation, we are supposed to believe these polls? Hmmm... Henry VIII 25 Jun 16 08:25 "Brexit baffled punters, pundits and fund managers to the very end" http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-predictions-idUSKCN0ZB06R No need for comment, really, is there? Forgive the indulgence, but a couple of people have enquired into the state of my book; timbuctooth 29 Jun 16 17:02 My `Anyone But Clinton` green would be one of my better wins, and have activated my `max green` strategy, concentrating on bringing the Clinton red down from an unnecessarily greedy `max`, to a currently fairly minor one. I`m not a `level-up` type and, specifically, would have a real problem actively `backing` La Clinton. Not just at 1.3x, but at any price! Is the market `right` at that price? Who knows but, personally, I don`t believe Specials markets are EVER right, there`s just too many `unknowables`. (which, of course, is why it`s so relatively easy to win!). But, most of us thought the Brexit market was not only wrong for most of the time, but also incredibly slow-moving, ignoring any and all evidence in favour of `Leave`. It was the `sheer disbelief!` factor; a factor which I think is, and has been all along, holding Trump`s price too high. There`s an ever-increasing global political disillusionment underway, but the self-proclaiming cognoscenti still don`t believe it. Nor, it seems, do markets. And one last indulgence, but perhaps relevant; timbuctooth 29 Jun 16 17:15 Just thought of what I think is a possibly important theory; with bf being not only UK-centered but with the US also banning access, most of the money in the markets won`t be American. It will, to a large degree, be the exact same players who got Brexit so spectacularly wrong. In which case, CHAAAAARRRRRGGGGGE!!! Finally, ponder this; were you surprised that Trump has a penchant for making advances on women, some of whom don`t appreciate such advances? Didn`t we all already know that he does these things? Ignore the unbelievably biased coverage from the American (and UK!) media, and there`s really nothing to see here with his vt and these women coming out years later. This sort of stuff will be long forgotten when voters are weighing up how important it is when measured against things like Supreme Court Judges, the economy, Obama-care, immigration, etc; not to mention being such an anti-elite, anti-Washington candidate-for-change, that he`s even declared civil war on his own party! Couldn`t make it up, but great fun, nevertheless. Nearly a month to go, who knows wtf this mad election campaign will throw up, either against him or her? Hadn`t changed my book very much for ages, but beginning to have a few nibbles at these prices. Bullet point; ignore the bollox, Trump ROMPS it, great value. |
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FFS!!! Spent so long copying and pasting from this thread, forgot to go to the right thread before posting!
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Tim, I wish you and Jimmy savile well
Trump Flirts With Pre-Teen (VIDEO) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRMEDdtStUE Trump Exposes Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSE-XoVKaXg |
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Sorry, not Jimmy, should read Trump
sometimes I mix them up  |
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Donald Trump: This is Who America Wants for President?
https://youtu.be/VAyuIEq65tk?t=43 |
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Only slightly unfair, mach! Pretty much in line with the rest of the world`s coverage of him, though.
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It's fantastic that you can leave voice messages here now.
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