Specials
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###EU Jimmy###
###EU Jimmy###
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I wouldn't be surprised if a few nutters put their shop windows through tonight
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You've cheered me up now. Thanks bear
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Iceland is the new Leicester ( Hopefully ;) - same population anyway!).
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The main motivator for that price was the Populus phone poll that had just come out - REMAIN 10% ahead. It was the final poll announced (or thereabouts).
However Populus phone polls had always been way more favourable to Remain than other polls taken at the same time. (They were hired by Remain). As this one was. The market reacted to individual pieces of data, which was bad enough, but in this case information was already available that the data was flawed (ie Populus past Brexit phone polls). Anyway the point is that that sort of thing creates opportunities for people on here. |
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Reminds me of stock market reporting where a company may drop just a few points and the commentators, Bloomberg etc, have to give a reason for it. Everything has to be understood, even if it can't be understood. There are reasons for long term movements and for big daily movements, but a short term small drop needs no explanation other than more people needed to sell than buy.
Not an exact analogy that, but that poll reaction just made me think of it - allowing a focus to obliterate the bigger picture. |
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Another point: This little thread was so much better in every way than any thread in the Politics forum, which seems to be mostly a forum for political views.
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The key thing betting wise was the inability of the commentators on the night to call the result. BBC was 4am iirc. This led to the money chasers continuing to plough in even after the game was up. They kept telling us it wasn't analogous to a GE when in fact it very much was. Once a couple of the early results came in and were ahead of leave projections it was pretty clear where the momentum/value lay. London was supposed to come to the rescue but it had been p1ssing down all day and inner/outer London are two different worlds and cancelled each other out.
Even re turnout the Sunderland result was 5% above GE turnout and the final national turnout was about that. Plenty of value in that market after the early results too. None of this is aftertiming as it was posted in running and informed trading...certainly mine. |
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AND THE NEW!.... FOTY, master Geoooooooorge BAAAAAAAAILEEEEEY.
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One swallow does not make a Summer...oo er missus
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less of what you got up to in Magaluf in your young whippersnapper days.
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re. the Politics forum; no doubt they know far more about the subject than most of us do. But, (and it is quite a big `but`), they very rarely actually have anything to bet on! We`re betting every day of the year on our speciality, and perhaps we`ve become better at interpreting the signs of how public votes are going. Also, the Politics boys are usually just arguing their own political beliefs, whereas none of us have any `belief` at all in any of our greens: therefore, we`re incredibly more flexible when it comes to betting, ready to swap red to green without first having to overcome personal, deeply-held life-long views.
To me, there is absolutely no doubt that, as a whole, we `Specialists` are by far the most successful little group of players on bf. We don`t know how many of bf`s clients are long-term winners, but the highest guesses are maybe 10%; the regs on here would be 100% winners. Does 100% seem high? OK, name a reg who loses, long term? There isn`t one. A large part of the reason behind such success is the very `friendliness` of Specials forumites; we all freely share our honest thoughts, and I`m more than happy to admit (as I have done many times before), that I learnt everything I know from some of these regs. Bullet point? We few Specialists are the best. |
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good post. wasnt it squares that said you dont have to like your winners or dislike your losers.
who funds specials winners i guess is the pertinent question. |
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I think it`s Lou.
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good analysis on specials as ever, i'm a bit busy now but will return to this later with a newbie's take.
might sound crazy but is the potus market wrong? (nicked from a chit chat thread on the back of news of latest polls being close) |
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potus very dangerous for us brits to get involved with. we cannot possibly gauge public opinion, so its just a gamble. fwiw, ive got a smallish position on trump, just because at the price its very tempting with the polls being close and a significant abc opinion.
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Forget nationwide states its the battleground states that matter and there Trump is fecked. Republicans really must win Florida...Pennsylvania/Ohio... and there aren't enough angry whites there for him.
. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html?utm_content=buffer35525&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer |
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And we think we are a divided nation right now...
"The 2016 election has increased the level of hatred and prejudice in the U.S.," 61 percent of American voters say. Another 34 percent say it has had no impact. Of that 61 percent, 67 percent blame the Trump campaign and 16 percent blame the Clinton campaign. "It would be difficult to imagine a less flattering from-the-gut reaction to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "This is where we are. Voters find themselves in the middle of a mean-spirited, scorched earth campaign between two candidates they don't like. And they don't think either candidate would be a good president." American voters are deeply divided along gender, racial, age and party lines. Women back Clinton 50 - 33 percent while men back Trump 47 - 34 percent. White voters back Trump 47 - 34 percent. Black voters back Clinton 91 - 1 percent and Hispanic voters back her 50 - 33 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 48 - 23 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 51 - 35 percent. Democrats go to Clinton 89 - 3 percent, as Republicans go to Trump 84 - 6 percent. Independent voters are divided with 36 percent for Trump and 34 percent for Clinton. Both top candidates get negative favorability ratings, 34 - 57 percent for Trump and 37 - 57 percent for Clinton. Trump will not be a good president, American voters say 58 - 35 percent. Clinton will not be a good president, voters say 53 - 43 percent. American voters say 58 - 33 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president than Trump; 53 - 33 percent that she is more intelligent and 46 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards. But voters say 45 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 49 - 43 percent that he is a stronger leader. |
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...that said old people vote more than young people...be an interesting election night
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isnt there a petition to disenfranchise old folk from the next eu-reffy?
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Yep, `you dont have to like your greens or dislike your reds`. is copyright; squares, a few years ago.
Frog`s right, re POTUS; we can`t know as much as the colonials. Clearly, that doesn`t stop one or two of us from being hugely bombastic at times, when we think we know what`s going on! There is, however, a time for bombast, and a time for hiding in the corner. Which is where I`ve been for the last few weeks. There`s no doubt things seem to be going Clinton`s way, with the resulting drift in Trump`s price, but there`s still soooo long to go, anything could happen. My `Anyone But Clinton` green would be one of my better wins, and have activated my `max green` strategy, concentrating on bringing the Clinton red down from an unnecessarily greedy `max`, to a currently fairly minor one. I`m not a `level-up` type and, specifically, would have a real problem actively `backing` La Clinton. Not just at 1.3x, but at any price! Is the market `right` at that price? Who knows but, personally, I don`t believe Specials markets are EVER right, there`s just too many `unknowables`. (which, of course, is why it`s so relatively easy to win!). But, most of us thought the Brexit market was not only wrong for most of the time, but also incredibly slow-moving, ignoring any and all evidence in favour of `Leave`. It was the `sheer disbelief!` factor; a factor which I think is, and has been all along, holding Trump`s price too high. There`s an ever-increasing global political disillusionment underway, but the self-proclaiming cognoscenti still don`t believe it. Nor, it seems, do markets. |
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Frog's wrong...with the internet i suspect we know more than 90% of Americans.
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how very dare you.
shy trumpers will win him this election, or at least get him very close. |
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Just thought of what I think is a possibly important theory; with bf being not only UK-centered but with the US also banning access, most of the money in the markets won`t be American. It will, to a large degree, be the exact same players who got Brexit so spectacularly wrong. In which case, CHAAAAARRRRRGGGGGE!!!
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plus all the yanks using proxy servers........
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If they go to that trouble to bet it really will be smart money
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is corbyn going to leave, his position looks absolutely untenable, despite his defiance it will just get silly the longer he clings on. what do we think political gurus
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i'm poised to oompa lumpa
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1.01 he stays
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but i might change that to 12's when it suits
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interestingly, eagles price is higher now than before watson pulled out
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She's not challenging
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Jezza v Watson might have been interesting. Watson would probably have won. If Its Jezza v Eagles different ball game. I voted for Jezza because I agree with his policies...we tried to battle for the middle ground with Milliband and that got us nowhere. If Kendall/Burnham/Cooper aren't the answer why is Eagle?
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We need a good strong woman to run the country. Thatcher was a dominatrix to the UK and we need more like that.
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bearcub 29 Jun 16 18:20
but i might change that to 12's when it suits Burst out laughing! Very funny. Sorry, GB2, but bear`s also already told you; `she`s not running`. |
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She might be now apparently
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 16m16 minutes ago Told categorically not true Angela Eagle won't challenge Corbyn. Understand issue is solely one of timing. 5 retweets 0 likes |
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The whole things a mess, good for trading though
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So she`s ruled out a current challenge, but might challenge at some point in the future? Presumably if everything fits into place, for her?
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