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Evening all, just thought I would share my thoughts about the upcoming by-election. Its seems UKIP have almost won this one, should really be 1.01 imo, the value seems to be in UKIPs vote percentage, ive been backing 50-55% @ 12/1 which is huge value. They were polling 40% at the start of the month and were at 43% a week ago, that was before the EU demanded £1.7 billion. The last few by-elections UKIP have done alot better than opinions suggest, in Eastleigh they were polling @ 21% but got 27.8% of the vote, in Wythenshawe and Sale East they were @ 15% but got 18% of the vote, Newark was slightly lower then opinions polls suggested, Heywood and Middleton they were polling 28% but got 38.7% of the vote and the opinion polls were pretty accurate in Clacton. All the Tory campaigning now starting look very desperate indeed, Labour losing 4 points in the polls this week and the Lib Dems lucky to beat the Loonies this is looking like a UKIP rout.
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The only way we can stop criminals moving freely to this country is by getting out of the EU, Dave keeps bleating on about renegotiating but Ange keeps slapping him down
Are we going to stop all our criminals going to the costa del crime
Quite right, if Spain refuses entry to UK criminals then good for them
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11224016/David-Cameron-tells-Labour-LibDems-and-Green-supporters-in-Rochester-and-Strood-Vote-Tory-and-stop-Ukip.html
Poor old Dave, getting pretty desperate now
Poor old Dave, getting pretty desperate now
Ladbrokes UKIP vote share 45-50 7/4 looks fair. UKIP private survation poll has it 46.
tactical voting is going to be massive in the general election
who voters choose to switch to and for which particular reasons will often be particular to the local conditions, should think there will be many switching to 'stop the UKIP'
going to make it very interesting
who voters choose to switch to and for which particular reasons will often be particular to the local conditions, should think there will be many switching to 'stop the UKIP'
going to make it very interesting
45-50% should of been fav for the last month, no idea why 40-45% is short. Still hopeful over 50% or over, been some dream headlines for UKIP over the last few weeks. The most liked comments under news articles have been pro UKIP, thats including the left wing press.
Tories need to have some kind of pact with UKIP especially in some northern seats where the Tories have no chance of winning.
Early signs are that it's going to be about 45% for UKIP. Tories high 30's. Labour not much over 10%
That's from a post on polticalbetting. Could be b0llox
Straw exit poll..
#Ukip – 49%
Conservative – 29%
Labour – 16%
Greens – 6%
#Ukip – 49%
Conservative – 29%
Labour – 16%
Greens – 6%
I would be seriously surprised if the Tories got in the high 30's, can see Labour around 10%. I reckon the Greens could come close to keeping their deposit.
Unnamed Insider @Unnamedinsider 3h3 hours ago
I want to clarify. Voting UKIP doesn't necessarily mean you're a racist, you may just be a moron. Or both #RochesterandStrood
I want to clarify. Voting UKIP doesn't necessarily mean you're a racist, you may just be a moron. Or both #RochesterandStrood
I'm going to be splitting blood if UKIP don't get over 50% of the vote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30139832
this is New Labour in a nutshell
this is New Labour in a nutshell
So I'd be surprised if they make 50% Elsie
Having said that the Tories are saying there's no chance they will win
Having said that the Tories are saying there's no chance they will win
£100 Elsie. I was surprised they let me have that much on
I doubt Farage would of said he was going to win by a huge margin, probs starting to feel a bit sorry for the Tories
Nov 20, 2014 -- 11:03PM, judorick wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30139832this is New Labour in a nutshell
I wouldn't want him as a neighbour 
Said the flags were up since the world cup, apparently the guy didn't even vote 
Labour are fooking useless. Very depressing 
maybe not but it's not up to a snobby shadow cabinet member to post pictures with snide comments on social media
this sums up exactly the contempt and disdain with which the likes of Thornberry hold the lower classes
how ironic that these are the same people they have always relied on to elect their MPs
this sums up exactly the contempt and disdain with which the likes of Thornberry hold the lower classes
how ironic that these are the same people they have always relied on to elect their MPs
True elsie. If Labour had a half decent leader they'd p1ss the General Election
I`d be interested in buying UKIP seats at the next GE. Anyone know if any Spread companies are offering quotes? I`ve tried the usual suspects, but can`t find any.
was a total disaster that was the untimely death of John Smith
I've not looked. You should ask betfair to add some more UKIP seat markets tim. 5.5 is the highest one atm
Not sure Tim not got a spread betting account, I wouldn't get too carried away with the amount of UKIP seats at the next GE, i reckon they are going to come close in alot but just fall short.
Sporting index had UKIP vote share @ 43.5-45 iirc, seemed liked a totally risk free bet
it's a really tricky call the UKIP seats, as I said earlier in the GE you could get massive tactical voting
for instance in a Lab - UKIP race, greens and Lib Dems may vote Labour in large numbers
going to be hard to call, voters are smart and not to be underestimated
for instance in a Lab - UKIP race, greens and Lib Dems may vote Labour in large numbers
going to be hard to call, voters are smart and not to be underestimated
The Tories need some kind of pact with UKIP to be in government next year if not they are just going to vote split in the north
I wouldn't be surprised if they were unable to form a stable government next year especially if the SNP steal quite a few Labour seats, not unrealistic to see all 3 of the main party leaders quit after the election
Sporting Index appear to have a UKIP seat market, tim, but suspended atm
Dan Ware, the man whose England flags and white van were photographed by Emily Thornberry, to her cost, has been speaking to the Telegraph. He said that he voted Conservative in 2010, that he did not know there was a byelection on and that he thought Thornberry was a snob.
Really, fll? I`ve looked a few times since the last bye-election, but couldn`t even find that. As stated above, the general view seems to be that they`ll go close in a lot of seats, but not actually win many. On that basis, I was hoping to be able to buy at, maybe, 3? 4? Possibly a bit optimistic, but they can`t set the quote too high, either.
Also, the prices or a Tory/UKIP coalition seemed a bit tempting.
Also, the prices or a Tory/UKIP coalition seemed a bit tempting.
My 100/1 that he was a Green voter is safe then 
.
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.4888412/uk-general-election-seats-markets
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.4888412/uk-general-election-seats-markets
Nigel said he has ruled out a coalition with the Tories, he appears to despise Dave. He said they would support them in a minority government, they don't want to make the same mistake as the Lib Dems.
They all lie, but he does seem to hate Cameron. I suspect they'd have to dump him after the election for Farage to do a deal
Aahhh, 6 pm. That explains it. Thanks, I`ll look tomorrow.
Nov 20, 2014 -- 11:40PM, Elise89 wrote:
Boris for PM and Nigel as DPM, the dream team
`Hey, Nig, fancy being DPM, giving you and your party the chance to go from 10 or 20 seats, to 200 or 300?` He wouldn`t be saying `No`.
Probably only needs her clients to vote for her to beat the Lib Dems
there is plenty wrong with having flags out,
they are not marching in to a battle
have they forgotten which country they live in, and need a reminder
they are not marching in to a battle
have they forgotten which country they live in, and need a reminder
That earlier exit poll was from the local newspaper. PB.com not putting much faith in it
I find it odd too mach. Except during the football. Lazy fooker not to take them down. But a huge gaff from Labour
I'd be surprised if UKIP did as well as some hope tonight. Reckless has shown himself up to be a right pillock and we also had the video of Farage saying he favoured a private health insurance system
I would be seriously shocked if UKIP vote share was under 45%, just don't see where the other votes are coming from unless the Greens manage to get into double figures
It's hardly been a great campaign for them. Possibly even some Labour and Lib Dem supporters voting for the Tories
Some strange bets, lots of the UKIP market share has been backed @ 990
Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY
Follow
#RochesterandStrood count. Rumours @LibDems tanking in early tallies. Behind @UKIP Con Lab Green Monster Raving Loonies maybe Charlotte Rose
Follow
#RochesterandStrood count. Rumours @LibDems tanking in early tallies. Behind @UKIP Con Lab Green Monster Raving Loonies maybe Charlotte Rose
Post on PB.com
Lib Dems doing appallingly and Ukip not winning by as big a margin as hoped? All just rumours but it suggests Lib Dems voting tactically for the Tories.
Lib Dems doing appallingly and Ukip not winning by as big a margin as hoped? All just rumours but it suggests Lib Dems voting tactically for the Tories.
Another one
Early tallies indicate UKIP in mid 40s. Conservatives mid-to-high 30s. May change as rest of verification finishes.
Early tallies indicate UKIP in mid 40s. Conservatives mid-to-high 30s. May change as rest of verification finishes.
.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/20/marf-on-rochester-and-harry-hayfields-local-and-westminster-by-election-preview/#vanilla-comments
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/20/marf-on-rochester-and-harry-hayfields-local-and-westminster-by-election-preview/#vanilla-comments
Might get just over 45% but over 50% looks very unlikely
Michael Portillo says on 'This Week' that there will be much more tactical voting in the GE because of both UKIP and the huge increase in poling
I thank you
I thank you
How amusing if the Greens beat Labour, surely Ed will have to just give up and quit, hes becoming a laughing stock
Think the UKIP lone was 10.5 - 11.5 with spin. A couple of books still have UKIP markets up for next general election worth keeping an eye on if anyones about at 3.30.
Ukip 'heading for a majority of over 3,000'
A new set of figures is doing the rounds.
Ukip: 43%
Conservatives: 35%
Labour: 17%
Assuming a 53% turnout, this would give a result looking like this.
Ukip: 18,050
Conservatives: 14,700
Labour: 7,150
Ukip majority: 3,350
A new set of figures is doing the rounds.
Ukip: 43%
Conservatives: 35%
Labour: 17%
Assuming a 53% turnout, this would give a result looking like this.
Ukip: 18,050
Conservatives: 14,700
Labour: 7,150
Ukip majority: 3,350
I think the Tories and Labour would take that result now
The turnout is 50.67%, the acting returning officer, Neil Davies, has announced.
Didnt stay up have to say that poll at 12.41 was close to the mark Elise. Not sure if thats that great for UKIP tbh fairly sure Conservatives will retake in May have taken 11/8 with Hills. Other than that wouldnt be buying UKIP seats now (though selling would be madness)Have backed under 7.5 10/11 Ladbrokes and no defector before Christmas @ evens.
Quite surprised UKIP didn't get over 45% of the vote, there have been so many anti EU stories pretty much everyday since Reckless defected. I would say the Tories were very likely to take the seat back in 2015, opinion poll suggest that quite a few who voted for UKIP in the by election would go back to the Tories in the GE.
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