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Evening all, just thought I would share my thoughts about the upcoming by-election. Its seems UKIP have almost won this one, should really be 1.01 imo, the value seems to be in UKIPs vote percentage, ive been backing 50-55% @ 12/1 which is huge value. They were polling 40% at the start of the month and were at 43% a week ago, that was before the EU demanded £1.7 billion. The last few by-elections UKIP have done alot better than opinions suggest, in Eastleigh they were polling @ 21% but got 27.8% of the vote, in Wythenshawe and Sale East they were @ 15% but got 18% of the vote, Newark was slightly lower then opinions polls suggested, Heywood and Middleton they were polling 28% but got 38.7% of the vote and the opinion polls were pretty accurate in Clacton. All the Tory campaigning now starting look very desperate indeed, Labour losing 4 points in the polls this week and the Lib Dems lucky to beat the Loonies this is looking like a UKIP rout.
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Replies: 194
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Not playing XF or SCD?
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Not really, had a few quid on Pixie because she is fit and a bit on Jake thanks to Hemsbys advice
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He got me on to Jake early, as well!
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He told me to back Alison
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I took some 1.8 on UKIP a few weeks backs thanks to JOT
Happy to stick with that for now From what I've read Labour have a very decent candidate and could do better than the polls predict |
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How embarrassing for Dave if Labour beat the Tories to 2nd, wouldn't be a big surprise if that happened.
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there will be all kinds of tactical voting, Tories, Libs and Lab voters switching to whoever they think is the best option to oppose the Kippers
this means at least 2 of the Big 3 are going to see a total collapse in their vote so if you can work that out there is money to be made in the markets. Anyone wanna have a go? |
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surely the labour voters and lib dem floaters will vote ukip
call me dave's best chance is if the tories can make it a vote for second then ukip vote may indeed suffer good luck with your 50-55 % bet, looks a decent punt |
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Any Labour voter who votes Ukip needs shooting
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Anyone who doesn't vote UKIP needs shooting
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if you look at the recent result in the other by election, there was a major tactical vote to keep the UKIP out and this is likely to happen again
Lib Dem voters in particular are likely to switch to whichever party is the main opposition and the LibDem vote is going to collapse, I would bet on them getting less than 1% of the vote it's all a matter of whether it is Labour or Tory that picks up the tactical voting, the other is going to suffer the same fate as LibDems who is polling in 2nd place currently? |
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17-21 Oct 2014 ComRes/Daily Express 1,500 30% (Con) 21% (Lab) 3% (Lib) 43% (UKIP) 3% (Others)
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That poll was done before the EU demanded £1.7 billion so the next poll is going to be very interesting indeed.
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hard to know which way the tactical vote will go
sure thing thouigh, LibDem vote will collapse, if you can get a price on say less than 2% it would be worth taking |
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Latest polling figures 27-28 Oct 2014 Survation/Unite 1,012 33%(CON) 16%(LAB) 1%(LIB) 48%(UKIP) 2%(OTHERS)
Labour losing 9 points in a month  |
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Not great
 Ignore my previous post about them doing ok  The ComRes poll showing only 30% of voters, had seen anything of the Labour 'campaign' compared with over 80% for the other 2, suggested they'd thrown the towel in. |
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Latest polls
7-10 Nov 2014 Lord Ashcroft 571 32%(CON) 17%(LAB) 2%(LIB) 44%(UKIP) 5%(OTHERS) |
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04plxjz/south-east-today-the-battle-for-rochester-and-strood
Did anyone watch this last night? UKIP and Tories roundly jeered by the audience even though they are polling over 80% of the vote. Can't the BBC just have an audience that properly represents the area rather than bussing in a group of far left nutters and hippies, disgraceful scenes. |
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not a major politics person and seeing as this has been posted in my manor and not over in the dweeb section.
what other policies other than immigration do UKIP have ? |
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http://www.ukip.org/issues
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interesting
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armagnac 11 Nov 14 17:26 Joined: 28 Aug 04 | Topic/replies: 33,558 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
really, i thought UKIP was just a toned down version of the BNP and EDL ? Not really like the BNP, the BNP want to stop all immigration full stop. UKIP wants to control the quality of the immigrants coming into this country, i.e not letting in people with criminal records |
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some strong views over on the politics section
Larry Sellers 07 Nov 14 13:10 1. All UKIP members and supporters are guilty of generalising and stereotyping people based on race, religious and/or political beliefs. This is wrong. 2. All they do is scaremonger and play on fear. The rise of UKIP reminds us all of how NAZI Germany got started. pls feel free to add |
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i.e not letting in people with criminal records
agree with this bigtime, that poor girl who got followed by the bike riding east european would be still alive today if that was implemented from day1 like it is in america and Australia. insane that it is not, i sit here in despair |
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Makes a change from in your undies
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UKIP is deffo attracting middle righters who were not brave enough to vote BNP or EDL
alot of there recent gains has underlying racist tones imo |
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both bear both
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Oh FFS didn't see there was a politics section
When all else fails compare something to Hitler and the Nazis, quite ironic how they say UKIP is scaremongering but then say voting for UKIP is somehow going to turn this country into NAZI Germany |
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not that it makes you racist of course elsie, but anyone who is shouting UKIP from the rafters will be under the microscope
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could UKIP really being run by 90 year old germans ??
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specsavers for you elise
its right under specials ffs |
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i better stay away from that forum, especially with my friend request plans.
i'd be bombarded with applicants, leather clad ones |
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I'll be your friend army
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coffee please 2 sugars |
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The Tory woman looked like Sam Bailey's ugly sister
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That was Elsie
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