2.94 on Sam Bailey obviously.

Fifth Elimination - Abi Alton

Abi and Hannah announced as bottom 2 which wasn't a surprise, they were both odds on. Abi trading around 1.5s/1.6s and Hannah 1.6s/1.8s. Abi around 2.4 for elimination, Hannah in the 4s, so was Sam Callahan, before going high 3s later on.

After bottom 2 announced, Abi went 1.2s then lower, down to 1.12 or so, although for some lucky layers, £688 got matched at 1.01 and £200 at 1.02. Last price matched was 1.08.

Best HS prices:

Category/Judge
Overs/Sharon  11/8
Boys/Louis    11/4
Girls/Nicole  15/4
Groups/Gary   6/1

First Manager Out
Gary      Evs
Nicole    9/4
Sharon    7/1
Louis     8/1

Top Girl
Tamera   1/5
Hannah   4/1

Top Boy
Nicholas 4/9
Luke     9/4
Sam      20/1

got two huge reds left now, Hannah in the outright and Nicole in the category/mentor market

so could do with Hannah to go leaving Tamera as my only threat

Might be next market to focus on, Louis looks a bit too big at 8s. Could easily see a situation where he loses an act next week then he wouldn't look as secure. Sharon actually looks about right considering Sam is something like 1/6 or 1/7 on to make the final three.

You can actually get 12/5 Nicole first manager out with Winner (whoever they are) and also on Betfair Fxd Odds. Agree Louis 8/1 could also be a bit of value. This market had a shock winner last year when Ella Henderson was eliminated.

Yeah I have been trying to add liquidity from time to time but no one bites. Agree the price has probably gone, still might be a bit of value now we know how unpopular Hannah is. The only bottom 2 combo she survives now is Sam C. You then have either a race between RC / Tamera or Tamera / Nick. All of this is based on my view that Sam B is effectively weighed in. In all honesty I cannot see a match up where she is eliminated outside the top 3. Might be tempted by the betfair fixed odds.

Sixth Elimination - Sam Callahan

At the suspend, Elimination and Bottom Two prices were as follows:

Hannah Barrett  2.22 / 2.24     1.4 / 1.44     
Sam Callahan    2.4 / 2.48      2 / 2.1
Luke Friend     7.2 / 15        3.7 / 5
Tamera Foster   12 / 13         2.92 / 3.1
Rough Copy      48 / 65         4 / 5.5

After the bottom two were announced, Sam traded around 1.05-1.07 before hitting 1.01.

Best HS prices:

Category/Judge
Overs/Sharon  5/6
Boys/Louis      5/2
Groups/Gary     7/1
Girls/Nicole  8/1

First Manager Out
Gary      11/10 (7/5 one online bookie)
Nicole     6/4 (13/8 one online bookie)
Sharon    7/1
Louis      7/1

Top Girl
Tamera   1/4
Hannah   100/30

Top Boy
Nicholas 1/5
Luke     9/2 (5/1 & 11/2 available online)

Seventh Elimination - Hannah Barrett

At the suspend, last Elimination and Bottom Two prices matched were as follows:

Hannah Barrett    1.95     1.4 (traded 1.4 - 1.68)
Tamera Foster     2.54     1.53 (1.3 - 2.36)
Rough Copy        19.5     2.38 (2 - 3)
Luke Friend       13       4.6 (2.2 - 8)
Nicholas McDonald -        7.4 (4 - 8.6)
Sam Bailey        -        26 (15.5 - 65)

After the bottom two were announced, Hannah traded around 1.08 - 1.12, shortening during judges decisions, lowest hit 1.03, last price matched 1.08.

Best HS prices:

Category/Judge
Overs/Sharon   4/7
Boys/Louis       11/4
Girls/Nicole  12/1
Groups/Gary        14/1


First Manager Out
Nicole     11/10
Gary      6/5 (7/5 one online bookie)
Louis      8/1
Sharon    18/1

Top Boy
Nicholas 2/7
Luke      7/2

Outright prices Monday after 8th Elimination:

Sam Bailey              1.38 / 1.39
Nicholas McDonald   6.8 / 7
Luke Friend             10 / 10.5
Rough Copy            25 / 27


Amount matched £1,167,445


Top Boy HS best prices:
Nicholas   4/5
Luke          11/10

40 minutes before Sunday semi-final show, Winner market:

Sam Bailey              1.33 / 1.34
Nicholas McDonald   6.6 / 7
Rough Copy            17 / 18.5
Luke Friend             19 / 20



9th Elimination / Bottom 2:

Luke Friend             1.7     1.35 / 1.4
Nicholas McDonald   3.4     2.38 / 2.58
Rough Copy            10     1.44 / 1.46
Sam Bailey              36     7 / 26

It's the first elimination this series when the fav out the bottom 2 didn't go.


Winner prices after the semi-final:

Sam Bailey              1.29 / 1.3
Nicholas McDonald   5.6 / 5.8
Luke Friend             17.5 / 18.5

Amount matched £1,292,992

Cheers Jack. I won well on the First Manager Market too and it's the second year running the Girls category has won it at a big price.

Saturday of the final:

Sam Bailey              1.19 / 1.2 (price shortened from 1.25 on Friday evening)
Nicholas McDonald   9.2 / 9.4 (was 6.2 before Sam's price shortened)
Luke Friend             18.5 / 19

Amount matched £1,464,190


Best High Street prices:

Top Boy - Nicholas 4/9, Luke 9/4

To Finish Third - Luke 4/9, Nicholas 5/2, Sam 20/1

To Finish Second - Nicholas 4/6, Luke 5/2, Sam 5/1

Thanks bear (and Fig from 9th Nov)! I don't really know why but I'm forever looking at what the odds were in the past on just about everything I bet on so am more than happy to do threads like these. Will do one for CBB and probably Splash.

After Nicholas sang his first song, Sam shortened to 1.12 and stayed around there the entire show, hitting a low of 1.1 and high of 1.16 during the Sunday final. Her last price matched was 1.12, Nicholas 9.

Lowest prices matched for everyone:

Lorna
36.00      £24
40.00      £71
42.00      £29
44.00      £56
46.00      £18
48.00      £73
50.00      £326

Shelley
25.00      £6
26.00      £4
30.00      £35
55.00      £7
60.00      £43
65.00      £43
70.00      £62

Miss Dynamix
13.50      £24
14.00      £90
14.50      £92
15.00      £171
15.50      £99
16.00      £102
16.50      £69
17.00      £282

Kingsland Road
10.00      £275
10.50      £534
11.00      £914
11.50      £594
12.00      £1,128
12.50      £1,989
13.00      £1,706
13.50      £1,110
14.00      £1,161

Abi
7.80      £5
8.60      £40
8.80      £153
9.00      £366
9.20      £2,688
9.40      £361
9.60      £780
9.80      £1,306
10.00     £2,030

Sam Callahan
13.50      £10
16.00      £38
16.50      £49
17.00      £140
17.50      £60
18.00      £209
19.00      £65
19.50      £110
20.00      £90

Hannah
2.00      £2
4.00      £100
5.00      £12
6.00      £1,128
6.20      £2,080
6.40      £2,116
6.60      £1,356
6.80      £1,169
7.00      £2,680

Tamera
2.04      £25
2.06      £34
2.08      £670
2.10      £698
2.12      £417
2.14      £471
2.16      £224
2.18      £220
2.20      £864
2.22      £527
2.24      £448
2.26      £547
2.28      £63
2.30      £378
2.32      £793
2.34      £488
2.36      £1,240
2.38      £1,074
2.40      £2,471

Rough Copy (The money matched below 5 was a mistake by a backer as was all matched after they were eliminated)
2.00      £112
2.50      £150
2.92      £27
3.00      £162
3.05      £400
3.25      £1
3.30      £2
3.50      £150
4.00      £150
4.10      £4
4.50      £150
5.00      £150
5.10      £55
5.20      £14
5.40      £81
5.50      £817
5.60      £1,486
5.70      £2,133
5.80      £11,812
5.90      £8,151
6.00      £5,453

Luke
5.20      £28
5.40      £4
5.70      £102
5.80      £200
5.90      £187
6.00      £642
6.20      £2,150
6.40      £3,357
6.60      £3,077
6.80      £2,736
7.00      £5,019

Nicholas (lowest & highest)
3.45      £14
3.50      £40
3.55      £34
3.60      £692
3.65      £350
3.70      £2,566
3.75      £1,963
3.80      £4,562
3.85      £5,695
3.90      £6,248
3.95      £2,512
4.00      £3,430
----------------
10.00      £2,154
10.50      £647
11.00      £1,003
11.50      £476
12.00      £994
12.50      £288
13.00      £737
13.50      £321
14.00      £109
14.50      £202

Sam Bailey (lowest & highest)
1.09      £6
1.10      £4,754
1.11      £22,166
1.12      £38,695
1.13      £76,644
1.14      £35,463
1.15      £20,743
1.16      £18,185
1.17      £33,569
1.18      £71,184
1.19      £79,022
1.20      £67,219
-----------------
12.00      £563
12.50      £508
13.00      £421
13.50      £828
14.00      £755
14.50      £417
15.00      £280
15.50      £158
16.00      £66
16.50      £88
17.00      £42
17.50      £74

Personal highlight was laying Tamera at 2.12, but some juicy double figure prices were sitting around on Sam for a long while - even after the lives started.

Yes, I'd second that. Thanks for doing this horse - very useful...