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*** BGT Semi 5 ***
*** BGT Semi 5 ***
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(Long Post Alert)
I've decided that before I back or lay any further I'm gonna wait to see: a) The Running Order - hopefully it'll be made clear on the night early on b) The wildcard contestant I've gone over it many times in my mind and have come to the conclusion that Jack Carroll is the only real threat to Attraction, not because he's any good - because he isn't - but my instincts tell me I'd be foolish to leave myself exposed when a kid with cerebral palsy is on a show like this. The numbers I've been keeping suggest Carroll is 2nd behind Attraction but although it's likely his act will just flop cos people expect better in the final, there's too big a risk he'll come out with something genius too. Also Jack has to come out with new material each time, nobody knows if Attraction will be doing one of their previous routines, and if they didn't, whether they could top the ones they've done so far. The only situation I would hold off on backing Jack to cover myself is if Steve Hewlett is the wildcard as he'll nick a share of Jack's comedian vote alongside Francine. I also regard Luminites as a potential problem but I'm inclined to think they won't win, partly because they're a singing group but also because people know they're already signed. I also can't help but think back to the Loveable Rogues with whom I had the same struggle pre-final to find I shouldn't have worried. In my mind its perverse for singers to win this show, particularly ones who are the perfect age-range for the X Factor. I've decided to draw a line through Richard and Adam, I predict around a 10% vote share for them. Francine, she'll probably reuse one of her old characters which for me is a big turn off in impressionists. Not to mention she bears a fairly good physical resemblance to many of the people she mimics which likely makes it easier, how many other celebs can she do? This is all one school of thought, my hope is that the results will more resemble the TellyMix poll which if I were looking at this contest objectively, and without lots of money on the line, would probably reckon was about right. |
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Also a long stream-of-thought thread.
After their semi-final I, somewhat hastily, decided only Richard and Adam could, given the right help, challenge Attraction. I had been able to easily draw a line through the rest of the field for one reason or another. I thought Jack would be very much a `one-joke-pony`, which would be wearing thin for his semi-final, and that he would probably not be good/original/funny enough to even qualify for the final. Once Cowell started touting him, the signs were there, but I ignored them. He was, though, funny enough in his semi with his new material, even if it was, essentially, the same joke, but in different forms With his price, by then, being around 5.0, I felt he was too short. However, I have since brought him on board at prices up to 8.8 So, three greens for me going into the final, and 100% confident of collecting. My mistake in backing Richard and Adam was failing to think it through and see that Cowell probably wouldn`t want them, certainly not now that we have seen how good a semi both Attraction and Jack would have. If the brothers were to be pimped, and Attraction de-ramped? Probably still not enough, but they are the one act who could, given the exact rght conditions, squeeze past the front two acts. Green-tinged wishful thinkig? Probably, but the value never seemed to be there to lay them off. To call the rest of the acts `fodder` would be vastly over-stating their status, irrespective of how much Cowell might try to force Luminites onto the unreceptive voters. They cannot win. More or less quits for the semi`s, but the O/R has been easy this year. |
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Sorry, lack of paragraphs there.
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I actually agree with everything in your post Danzaa, apart from the Richard and Adam. I can see them pulling out something special which could effect top 3 spot, but also you could see them just being roughly the same. Carroll could easily have an average night as a great night, but the fact that he has went on the show alone is of great credit to him, which is the major factor to the voting public. Francine looks a star, but for me don't see her as any threat to a top 3 spot, her impersonations of what I assume were eastenders stars I found average, even though I don't watch the program, so couldn't even say if she sounded like them? but the audience seemed to like what they heard, so maybe she was pretty close. Luminites I can see being last on the show with a really solid number to finish the show off, and I also do feel they have the ability to get 2nd spot with the correct number. Really can't see attraction not taking the title, once they have a classic song in the background, there is really nothing that could go wrong with this act, yes you can argue that we have seen this stuff twice now and it may not be as impressive as when seen for the first time, but on the other hand its more than likely to be something really special for the final, which will appeal to everyone.
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If Jack was the sole "laughter" act in the final,I think his chance of over-turning the jolly would have been increased,but with Francine (and possibly the ventriloquist ) being there,it does look a negative.
In saying that,with a stellar routine,plus favorable RO for him (Attraction on mid-show also),I've not totally given up hope he sneaks over the line.Will probably need one of them inspirational VT's as well. |
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Jack for me is very sympathetic and comes up with clever puns that make me smile but doesn’t have enough about his act to win. He’s just not funny enough. Also the chance of his act being weaker in the final is greater than the chance of stepping up imo (but he’ll still get the adulation).
Luminites are signed to Sony and will be pimped but to no avail. R&A may be signed as well. With the right pimping R&A could have won this in a normal year. |
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R&A look the value to me.
I still think with the right song and the pimp slot that they could turn over the favourites. Jacks problem is he will probably be up against 2 other comedy acts. Luminites just aren't gran friendly, though I guess they could be a good trade if Cowell continues to push them. ..oh and don't forget the only dance act in the final  |
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Attraction the value for me. Should be 1.10.
1.15 if given slot 2. |
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OK, apart from Attraction.
R&A have no competition in the 'classical' singers category. Not even amongst the kids this year. I can see Gabz & even Asanda taking votes from Luminites. Given the pimp slot and a MEM friendly classic, then they'd push Attraction close. A big if tho. More likely to be up early. |
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Luminites far too trendy to be MEM friendly, irrelevant of the song imho. Them Gabz and R and A all to steal votes off each other whilst the unique act in the pimp slot hoses home.
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WP on your 2.5 for a little wedge on Attraction Henry, top stuff.
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The price for Richard and Adam is surely based on the assumption that they will not be pimped and, instead, will be actively deramped, probably from Trap 2. If, after the first act and just before the ad-break, Ant or Dec name two other acts as being up next, their price will start dropping, and stay dropping the longer they aren't announced as 'up next'. If that were to happen, there could be some fun to be had for those of us with big, (but probably useless), greens on them. Particularly if Attraction and/or Jack are up early.
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I agree Tim.
For me they are the most MEM friendly, along with Attraction obviously. I don't see Gabz or any of the other singers taking votes from them |
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Price movement on Richard + Adam more to do with them polling badly than their likely draw, although their support is unlikely to be represented fully in polls imo. Personally I don't expect them to be actively deramped, nor a trap 2 draw. I expect them to be praised and have a lateish draw, but probably not praised enough and not have a late enough draw.
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I have been backing R & A in the W/O market all week.
Still think Jack should be favourite in this market but IMHO they are the only other runner. If he couldn't get the far more MEM friendly lovable rogues into the top 2 last year he has no chance with Luminites. Jack has two problems for me, he will probably have 2 comedy acts against him and 2 kiddy acts which could mean a lot of his vote could leak away. If he gets pimp and is ramped he could even win but with a mid or early slot I could see him suffering. We saw from the SF's how hands on the manipulation has been this year, far more than I can remember in previous years so it really is up to Cowell whether he wants a foreign winner or not. If he does then they are home and hosed already if not then I think both Jack and R & A could be pushed home! He could have those three on first 3 and savage them all and put Luminites on last and ramp them to high heaven and they still wouldnt win! |
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The fact that there are only three acts that can conceivably win doesn't necessarily equate to those three filling the top three places. As such,I'm not tempted by their Top 3 price, at least until the r/o begins to be revealed. I, too, have backed R and A in the w/o market.
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I agree 100% Tim.
Luminites could finish 3rd if they get a big pimp and if Jack or R & A getstuffed in a death slot and are damned with faint praise. |
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Thanks RMB. Had a fair bit since at less attractive odd too.
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* odds
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How's this for a trick on us version...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBR2uBRzo3c
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Bit of a plunge on the brothers, with 250 pounds wanting to back them at 22. Not a fortune but, relative to the market, big enough. The insiders, knowing the running order, have arrived!
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Down to 16!!!
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 Betting's bound to pick up now. Doesn't mean insiders. |
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I miss the train again
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I`m generally a believer that these things are pretty much free of insiders. However, let`s not forget how accurate the plunges were during the semi-finals.
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No money to take anyway
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I looked earlier and there was peanuts there to back them
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It's confirmed that Attraction are doing a brand new piece in the final during their interview on "This Morning" and Ruth said "you are the bookies favourite, but only just and it keeps changing."
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Only just and keeps changing
Don't you just love the lay public and betting |
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just wish they'd actually come on here and bet though...mind you they'd have to find the exchange first, now BF have hidden it.
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