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By:
nigelpm1
When: 29 Jan 13 17:02

Jan 29, 2013 -- 4:43PM, timbuctooth wrote:


I`ve just realised that 360 weeks is actually seven years. SEVEN YEARS!!! Would EE not injure himself once in seven years? I`ve talked myself into thinking it is, in fact, quite good value. Who`ll lay my tenner?


You are assuming :

1) Omid comes back ahead of the others
2) They bring anyone back at all

thus odds look less tempting.  I'll lay you at 340? ;-)

By:
Danzaa
When: 29 Jan 13 17:06
Though if I join you in the fallacy...
Charlotte and Ogogo have already injured themselves so Eddie's chances of getting injured are greatly reduced! Should be 1.01 super-nap!
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 17:10
Danzaa,
I spend 24 hours a day trying to overcome my `gambling` problem, but I believe this is not gambling, but really is a bit of value.
If I uhderstand it correctly, you`re saying it`s about 30/1 that EE is injured. I wouldn`t argue with that type of guesstimate. If it happened, I am fairly sure Omid would be re-instated, and he would then trade at somewhere between 2.5 and 4.0  To be generous, let`s call it 50/1 EE is injured, and that Omid would trade at 6.0.  Equals 300/1. If I can get 890 on every 300 shot, I`ll be rich, I tell ya, I`ll be rich.
For me, it`s all about the value. The results will take care of themselves.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 29 Jan 13 17:11

Jan 29, 2013 -- 5:10PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Danzaa,I spend 24 hours a day trying to overcome my `gambling` problem, but I believe this is not gambling, but really is a bit of value.If I uhderstand it correctly, you`re saying it`s about 30/1 that EE is injured. I wouldn`t argue with that type of guesstimate. If it happened, I am fairly sure Omid would be re-instated, and he would then trade at somewhere between 2.5 and 4.0  To be generous, let`s call it 50/1 EE is injured, and that Omid would trade at 6.0.  Equals 300/1. If I can get 890 on every 300 shot, I`ll be rich, I tell ya, I`ll be rich.For me, it`s all about the value. The results will take care of themselves.


Why - "I am fairly sure Omid would be re-instated"? Not sure on the logic of this at all.

By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 17:18
nigel, yes, I am assuming that if someone injures themself before, maybe, Friday, there will be a replacement. ITV have deigned the whole serries with a three-person final to fill the tv schedule. There`s little enough action in the show, as it is.  A two-person final would seem never-ending. ITV will want three there. Omid or Charlotte are the only two realistic runners, and I`m going 1.05 Omid`s the replacement.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 29 Jan 13 17:25

Jan 29, 2013 -- 5:18PM, timbuctooth wrote:


nigel, yes, I am assuming that if someone injures themself before, maybe, Friday, there will be a replacement. ITV have deigned the whole serries with a three-person final to fill the tv schedule. There`s little enough action in the show, as it is.

By:
Danzaa
When: 29 Jan 13 17:36

Jan 29, 2013 -- 5:10PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Danzaa,I spend 24 hours a day trying to overcome my `gambling` problem, but I believe this is not gambling, but really is a bit of value.If I uhderstand it correctly, you`re saying it`s about 30/1 that EE is injured. I wouldn`t argue with that type of guesstimate. If it happened, I am fairly sure Omid would be re-instated, and he would then trade at somewhere between 2.5 and 4.0  To be generous, let`s call it 50/1 EE is injured, and that Omid would trade at 6.0.  Equals 300/1. If I can get 890 on every 300 shot, I`ll be rich, I tell ya, I`ll be rich.For me, it`s all about the value. The results will take care of themselves.


If I'd invented the vibrating massager I'd be rich too.
To be fair, of the 15 contestants, 3 of them have injured themselves (Falconer, Ogogo and Jackson). So with that in mind, based on the only figures we have, the likelihood of anyone being injured in Splash is 4/1, making a 999/1 shot seem like amazing value, though only 1 has been so injured he had to withdraw.

If you did back Omid, you'd still be up against issues like whether or not Omid came 4th in the PV (if that's how they'd settle it), or if they'd even have a 3rd diver, they were originally meant to have 4 divers in the final, Ogogo's leaving didn't mean that only one person would be eliminated last weekend.

Also with Amelia Lily, in the years I've been doing this, that was the first time I've ever seen that, and she was lucky that they'd just had a double eviction otherwise there would have still been enough people for the final. You'd have to be £10k in the red before you finally hit one of these flukes if you ask me.

By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 29 Jan 13 18:14
Nikki Grahame was evicted from Big Brother by public vote but was still allowed to return to the house with the opportunity to win as if she had never been evicted. Anything is possible in specials markets, the producers can change the rules as they see fit.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 18:27
True odds calculation:

EE withdraws   30
ITV want a relacement  1.25
Omid selected   1.05
Omid`s price then   2.75

Giving about 110. On that basis, my `free` money will stay on offer for a while.
By:
bearcub
When: 29 Jan 13 18:29
The odds on 1 of them being injured this week would surely be greater this week.

Practicing 2 different dives, 1 of which will be of a higher difficulty than anything they've ever attempted
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 18:34
Hadn`t thought of that! Charrrrrrge!
By:
nigelpm1
When: 29 Jan 13 18:44

Jan 29, 2013 -- 6:27PM, timbuctooth wrote:


True odds calculation:EE withdraws   30ITV want a relacement  1.25Omid selected   1.05Omid`s price then   2.75Giving about 110. On that basis, my `free` money will stay on offer for a while.


Those middle two are HUGE assumptions - given we don't know they should both be evens really giving :

30 x 2 x 2 x 2.75 = 330.  If it comes in I'll buy you a beer!

By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 19:02
The hugely entertaining, crowd-pleasing, winner of his heat, Omid , against `I`ve got a sore toe, don`t you know` second-or-third placer Charlotte? Evens the pair?
By:
five leaves left
When: 29 Jan 13 19:09
I agree omid would be a virtual cert to replace anyone who had to withdraw. I'd be surprised if he's still not receiving some coaching
By:
nigelpm1
When: 29 Jan 13 19:26

Jan 29, 2013 -- 7:09PM, five leaves left wrote:


I agree omid would be a virtual cert to replace anyone who had to withdraw. I'd be surprised if he's still not receiving some coaching


lol, you lot do like to dramatise it!

By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 19:28
fll isn`t joking, and I agree with him.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 29 Jan 13 20:22
Last matched at 300. Layers running scared, best price now 55. I`ll take 750?
By:
five leaves left
When: 29 Jan 13 20:23
It's the highest rated saturday night show atm nigel. I'm sure they will have plans in place if someone has to withdraw from the final.
ofc that could be a 2 person final, but far more likely they'd bring someone back and that person would need to be ready to step in
By:
squares
When: 29 Jan 13 20:26
three finalists on AT show tomoro
By:
five leaves left
When: 29 Jan 13 20:28
Omid will be waiting in the green room just incase someone has a bad accident on the walk to the studioWink
By:
nigelpm1
When: 29 Jan 13 22:01

Jan 29, 2013 -- 8:22PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Last matched at 300. Layers running scared, best price now 55. I`ll take 750?


LOL - no-one is running anywhere

By:
squares
When: 30 Jan 13 15:49
AT show doesn't seem to have taken Splash very seriously Plain
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 16:01
any insights?
By:
squares
When: 30 Jan 13 16:21
Eddie's hoping the plaster will be off by Saturday.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 30 Jan 13 16:23
I found that very funny, don`t know if nigel did though...
By:
squares
When: 30 Jan 13 16:27
seriously - they're all fine, seem in great spirits.

Spent most of the time talking about what they wear.  Have no say in it apparently.  EE didn't like what he had the first week, bit happier last week, hoping for some tiny Speedos this time.
By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 16:34

Jan 30, 2013 -- 4:21PM, squares wrote:


Eddie's hoping the plaster will be off by Saturday.


Excited

By:
nigelpm1
When: 30 Jan 13 16:37

Jan 30, 2013 -- 4:23PM, timbuctooth wrote:


I found that very funny, don`t know if nigel did though...


I enjoyed the irony.

By:
squares
When: 02 Feb 13 15:09
EE has the hardest dives - according to Tom
By:
squares
When: 02 Feb 13 15:47
Daily Hell Poll

Who Do you want to win the Splash final?

Jake 22%
Linda 28%
Eddie 50%
By:
five leaves left
When: 02 Feb 13 17:19
TVpolls have sent a poll out
By:
bearcub
When: 02 Feb 13 17:27
will all be on the dive I suspect. If Eddy does a double somersault and lands flat on his face 1.2 might look a little silly


Crazy
By:
mach
When: 02 Feb 13 18:03
Votes Cast:   8.30pm Fri 1/2/2013 - 5pm Sat 2/2/2013               
                           
    NB. Poll results are now weighted  by age and gender and filtered to try and match the phone voting demographic as closely as possible.   
                           
             
           
             
                           
    Total Survey Responders: 161                     
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
    Who do you want to win SPLASH 2013?                   
      100%                     
    Jake Canuso 15% ██████████████               
    Eddie The Eagle Edwards 47% ██████████████████████████████████████████████   
    Linda Barker 19% ███████████████████             
    Don't Know-Not Watched Program 19% ███████████████████             
                           
    NB. These are Survey Results BEFORE Saturday's Final Show. A lot depends on how well each Celeb dives in the final.     
    For example if Eddie did a bad dive while one of the others did an amazing dive voting would probably be a lot closer.     
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
    Who's your 2nd Favourite?                     
      100%                     
    Jake Canuso 20% ███████████████████             
    Eddie The Eagle Edwards 24% ████████████████████████           
    Linda Barker 37% ████████████████████████████████████       
    Don't Know-Not Watched Program 20% ███████████████████             
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
    Who Most DESERVES to win Splash 2013?                 
      100%                     
    Jake Canuso 7% ███████                 
    Eddie The Eagle Edwards 54% ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████
    Linda Barker 19% ███████████████████             
    Don't Know-Not Watched Program 19% ███████████████████             
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
    Who's the Best Diver?                       
      100%                     
    Jake Canuso 10% █████████                 
    Eddie The Eagle Edwards 56% ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
    Linda Barker 15% ██████████████               
    Don't Know-Not Watched Program 19% ███████████████████             
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
    Who do you think the Judges most want to win?                 
      100%                     
    Jake Canuso 5% █████                   
    Eddie The Eagle Edwards 58% ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
    Linda Barker 15% ██████████████               
    Don't Know/Not Watched Program 22% █████████████████████             
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
    Who do you THINK will win SPLASH 2013?                 
      100%                     
    Jake Canuso 7% ███████                 
    Eddie The Eagle Edwards 66% ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
    Linda Barker 7% ███████                 
    Don't Know/Not Watched Program 19% ███████████████████
By:
mach
When: 02 Feb 13 18:06
Eddie could still feck things up, but if he dives clean there is not much doubt that he will win, I would be happy to take 1.1 after the dives
By:
squares
When: 02 Feb 13 19:03
anyone around for the final ?
By:
squares
When: 02 Feb 13 19:04
judges' scores for guidance only.

Lines now open to vote for your winner.
By:
squares
When: 02 Feb 13 19:05
Linda 1 / Eddie 2 / Jake 3
By:
squares
When: 02 Feb 13 19:06
solo dives first
synchro dives to follow
By:
ShirleyKnot
When: 02 Feb 13 19:06

Feb 2, 2013 -- 7:03PM, squares wrote:


anyone around for the final ?


It's ok, you are not talking to yourself.

By:
hemsby
When: 02 Feb 13 19:06
Evening Happy...we on here then?
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