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*** The 1st Eurovision Semi IR Fred ***
*** The 1st Eurovision Semi IR Fred ***
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Disagree fig , T24 has an average finishing position of (17.6) over last 3 years 'and collating 78 points over last 3 years , out of 25 traps is ranked 23 ( bit surprising I know)
Spain's trap being 19 has an average finishing position of (3.6) over last 3 years and collating 431 points .out of 25 traps over that time period is ranked 2 out of 25 Perhaps they done there homework more than we think |
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i'm not worried at all by the draw for UKRAINE...it will win where ever it's placed...some of you guy's really ought to start believing you know.
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They said they just picked the previous years winning position mug.
They did the same the year before when they had the WC too |
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I really fancy Spain,especially if Sweden are drawn before them.I wasn't too impressed by anything tonight,and it seems you are virtually guaranteed a good vocal from Pastora....then again I ain't really got a Scooby about this sh1t really
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3 years of stats or even 23 mean little in a 43 runner race.
Early bad. Middle OK. Late Good. Simple as that. |
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no doubt for me spain is the value..if that means anything in the ESC
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1957 winner was trap 6 so grannies not out of it
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I can't see anything that will follow it, GB2, that would have me hugely worried. Except for Loreen ofc
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i think it's safe to say...none of those qualifiers tonight will have a say in the top 4 market and the top 10 looks out of bounds for many.
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what was the last winner that wouldn't have won but for the draw? Any?
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Maybe Ukraine the other song I wouldn't want after spain
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Probably azer lol
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spain will bring the house down of that I'm sure but lack of friends and non english are a worry. That said we keep getting different winners under the juries so they are doing their job.
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Has to be Swedens night tbh
 6 draws left which gives them a winning chance 2 which wouldnt do their chances much good in 11 and 12 and 2 bogey draws in 4 and 5. Serbia too got to be happy though he would need a late one after spain and Norway too will be ok. Of those already qualified has to be good news for Spain and Germany but bad for the others. |
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I suspect the draw is not as important as people think on the basis that all the winners I can think of would probably have won anyway. And I can't recall any legendary "x would have won except for the draw" urban myths.
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I'll have to disagree again mug. The actual draw number means nothing mug. You'd need to run the contest 10,000 times to say a any particular number was good or bad.
It's the lateness of it that matters. Plus the songs that suround it. |
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I'm just going through and jettisoning my green on the liked of Cypyus etc. on the basis that anything drawn 16 or earlier just aint gonna win.
Are fellow punters in agreement that none of those currently drawn 16 or earlier can win even though that includes some decent ones like Greece, Cyprus, Russia, Romania, Italy, France |
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Unusual to disagree with a couple of u , but gb2 , I think sweeden is a green for u ,( sorry if I'm wrong) but if that is the case would u back it again if drawn 4 on thursday
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nope. Just makes it harder honest. It's been won from early slots before.
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absolutely not in agreement that is
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we agree Bex
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I disagree too. Sure a late draw is great, but a song performed early can still challenge if good enough and with the right songs around it.
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George Bailey "I suspect the draw is not as important as people think on the basis that all the winners I can think of would probably have won anyway. And I can't recall any legendary "x would have won except for the draw" urban myths."
________ Sorry mate - can't have that. I wasn't green on Sweden last year but for me that was the performance of the night yet was drawn early and surrounded by big runners. Ended 3rd and with a late draw would have won IMHO. Also think Turkey 2010 may have won with a late draw (was bang in the middle IIRC) They're just two that spring to mind |
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going back to particular numbers. ie 23 has a better record than 24, or whatever, just defies logic.
Early makes it harder. Middle slightly less hard. Late easier, to win. |
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five leaves left
nope. Just makes it harder honest. It's been won from early slots before. ___________________ But have any done so recently? Certainly in the 'jury era' it's been late songs every time |
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does anyone know when we will learn the votes of the semi final?
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I would be amazed if in a contest of this nature,it didn't work out to be the later the draw the better.Particularly if lines only open after the last act has performed.In any smallish sample,there will always be statistical quirks...it would be very unusual if there wasn't.
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after the final on saturday phil
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thanks five leaves left...hope russia is @ top 3... :)
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Unless you are good friends with Jonas Olsson ofc
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Apparently lines not open to last performance this year , but that is 2nd hand from another regular poster (sorry cant remember who)
My point is yes I totally agree the song is important ,and the the runners around it are as well , but past stats are a major factor Ie Last 6 years Been won by T16 -T25 1-4,& 6-12 never been in top 4 Last 3 years T19- T25 have won 1-6 , 8-10 never been in top 4 Bit like asking a good ground horse running in the national in heavy ground , not impossible but unlikely to win or even place |
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You don't have to go back much further to find runners and placers from the first 4 songs to perform though.
I agree in general a late draw is better, but it's less important now with the juries, that I also agree with. |
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If its a show , which on viewing figures it obviously is , the show will get better as it goes on, so hence the better acts are back loaded hence a better jury vote , on the basis the draw is straight lol.
With the better acts at the end , or the best entertainment , depends which way you read it , the jury's will vote for them along with the voting public which as we know is also towards the end of shows. Hence the past stats in my view , but I'm prepared to be shot down on this one. |
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A particularly bad year...most songs total rubbish...so should make for excellent viewing. Romania are value, but I was really sweet on Az last year and I'm struggling this time. However, Sweden must be a lay, surely.
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. Instinctively draw 4 would feel bad but if her name is on the cup she wins anyway.