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SPOTY 2012 starts here....
SPOTY 2012 starts here....
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Replies: 6,956
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I'm inclined to say she has slightly underperformed in spoty so far
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I also think she will be beaten again
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I agree with GB cant be backing her at these odds for SPOTY when she's about 3/1 in my view to win the gold. I know the bookies have her 6/4 whatever but thats an insult to Chernova and just reflects the publics hopes and lack of knowledge, more than the 'true' odds.
She's more like 6/4 to get there in one piece  |
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Unless someone else has just an unreal performance (Muz wins wimby, someone has a major double gold/treble gold) I'd have Paula Radcliffe a very strong fav if she wins gold.
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I wouldn't sean. But I suppose she's a better price. I know little about her chances, but guess they are less than Ennis
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Agree with Ennis that you need to relate it to her heptathlon win price, but the idea that a double gold winner would automatically trump her is flawed imo.
With Radcliffe's injury record, I won't be looking to back her until we are at least reasonable sure she is going to turn up fit. I have no idea who the other contenders are in the women's marathon and likely SP's if they all start fit - who is an athletics expert? |
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kenyans are going well in womens marathon esp kiplagat who fell twice and still won the worlds
i couldnt back radcliffe at any price with her record in the past few years until knowing if shes fit and in form |
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Agree with Bexley that Ennis is vastly underpriced for Gold.Chernova is younger,and improving and should be odds on if she makes it to the start line.
As regards to Radcliffe,it depends how far she has regressed owing to injury,age,motherhood etc.Her best is far superior to any other female marathon runner ever,but she has it all to prove atm.I personally would not rule her out,as you would be hard pressed to name a more dedicated competitor.If she did win Gold,she would be very difficult to beat for SPOTY imo. |
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Its all about David Weir for me at 999/1. 4 gold medals and a bit of a sob story = me rich
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Yep, just to make clear I'm no massive expert on the womens marathon feild, but she returned with a 3rd place last year in her comeback race and is sure to be better prepeared for London (baring injury of course)
What i'm saying is at 38 years old, being a mother, after the heartbreak of Athens, for her to win London would be the best story of the games by a massive margin. Even if she is as big as 16/1 for gold I'd back her at 33s for spoty. |
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Even money with so much else going on? It would be a great story, I must admit
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One story tends to capture the imagination, and that person might as well be 1.25. hence Hoy was 6/1 lol
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Can't even see Radcliffe being the top Brit never midn winnig gold.
Never understood why she decided to have 2 kids. Why not retire at 35 and then have kids? |
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Yea maybe im getting a bit carried away GB
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 Unfortunately women, unlike men, have a ticking fertility clock inside them  If she had left it until she retired she would probably not have been able to have kids. Yes I know women who do over forty, but it can be with ivf and that is not a good thing for mother or baby. Also with the heavy training she does it possibly would have meant no periods, hence no baby. I bet she said to herself I won't take any precautions and if I get pregnant so be it. |
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'my biological clock is ticking'
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You men don't know how lucky you are to be able to have children pretty much up to the day you die
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A curse, not a blessing
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Yes, I never thought of that in that way, but i suppose it is. To have to wear a condom throughout life, or PAY the consequences - urghh
I loathe condoms. |
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There are other options annie, but you ladies are so fussy
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Just tried finding out what sort of shape Radcliffe is in.....this is the latest info I could find,about 3 weeks ago
http://www.iaaf.org/news/newsid=63147.html |
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Apparently the above run ranked her 30th for 10km road race times in 2011 (ahead of her were 26 runners from either Kenya or Ethiopia!).Even allowing for the Monaco course being very hilly,I don't think we can draw too many positives from it,and as such a top price 33/1 seems on the skinny side to me.I still think though if she somehow wins the Olympic Marathon she must be fav to win SPOTY.
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Also worth noting the order in which the Olympic events are and how this will impact the market.
For example looking at the main contenders Athletics only: 4 Aug Mens 10,000m Heptathlon Final 5 Aug Womens Marathon 11 Aug Mens 5,000m |
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annie. 03 Jan 12 22:24
Yes, I never thought of that in that way, but i suppose it is. To have to wear a condom throughout life, or PAY the consequences - urghh I loathe condoms. threads gone downhill quicker than chemmy alcott on crack |
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Trust annie to lower the tone, yes
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Who is the best chance of an athletics gold?
I would put them in the following order: Greene Idowu Farah Ennis The rest Radcliffe (little to no chance) Realistically I can only see us winning a maximum of 2 atheltics golds, probably just one. If there is just 1 atheltics gold this person would have a strong chance. Dai Greene? |
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I think the story of the games will be mens triathlon. British 1-2. Alistair Brownlee 40/1
 hemsby why on earth are you judging radcliffes ability on an unplanned 10k hilly race? She was 3mins ahead of the lady in 2nd and the winning male only did 31.05 top club runners do sub 30 on flat course If radcliffe wins the marathon she wins SPOTY imvho Id probably price her at 10/1 for marathon so 33/1 SPOTY looks good to me Think Farah will win a gold and probably do the double. Id be all over a SPOTY match bet farah vs ennis  |
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I was going to back Mo, but meaty has put me off with this ukulele guy possibly coming back to form.
Double gold on the track and he beats anyone |
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watch bekele throughout the season and see howhes going..they wont avoid each other in the grand prix events
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I agree with Fig re Farah. Unless Murray won Wimbledon, in which case it would be close
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as much as i agree with an olympian looking sure to win spoty IF and its a big if
england win the euros then a footballer would be a massive runner..imagine rooney scoring the winning goal in the final..1.01 job |
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Prolly aye. All sorts of things could happen this year. Imagine the clamour if Wiggins won tdf, he could scoop all of Cav's vote and more
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a long year awaits
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Everyone could win, or slightly more likely, everyone could lose
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I wont be losing any sleep worrying about wiggins winning the tour or england the euros
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Zazu
I'm not judging her ability on that,I simply said I don't think we can draw too many positives from it.In order for her to win SPOTY she has to win Olympic Gold,and as of yet,there is no evidence to say she can.I am a huge fan of hers,and I also said,like you,Gold=SPOTY.What price would you make her for Gold? |
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Just re-read your post .....10/1 for Gold? I would make her far bigger.Good luck with any bets though.
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Surely Radcliffe is about 10-1 just to turn up fit?
Right not to forget about other sports - remember in 2008 Lewis Hamilton lead the market for most of the year. That said with London the venue that surely must be massive for an Olympian to win it - good time of year as well. In fact we could easily be looking at more than half the shortlist being Olympians. |