Sooty4444

In true Ben Cassels style, find my tips for the weekend…..ignore them at your peril.


Unfortunately there is no Premier League this weekend so international football and the lower leagues will have to make do for our betting entertainment. There is also some interesting developments in the golf in Madrid, and when combined with the quarter finals of the Rugby, the weekend looks fruitful on a betting front.

England are starting to play with more adventure now that Capello has gradually started to turf out some of the older and more established players for the young guns. Because of this, England can be more unpredictable and I think this will work in their favour against lesser opponents. Although the Montenegrins have shown that they can play, and Eastern Europe is a tough place to travel, I expect England to come up trumps and confirm their qualification in style. It is also likely that Montenegro will rest some of their key players for their next game with Switzerland, which is to be the decider for second place in the group and that valuable stop in the play-offs to qualify for EURO 2012. England are a great price @ 1.77 for those who can afford to lump, but if you are looking for a more attractive price then I would go with England to win 2-0 which is trading at 8.4.

In other internationals I would stay away from straight up multiples because of the fact that a lot of teams have already qualified and are likely to field weaker teams. There may be a bit of value in backing some of the teams that are playing those who have already qualified. Turkey is a tough place to go and I expect Germany to experiment with their team so there may be a bit of value in backing Turkey @ 3.5.
If you are looking for Multiples then I would go for the old over/under 2.5 goals option. I expect Greece v Croatia, Andorra v Ireland and Slovakia v Russia to all end up under 2.5 goals and I can see over 2.5 goals for Netherlands v Moldova.

I have also gone for a “big win” double that includes England to win 2-0 and Ireland to win 1-0 in Andorra who have a very impressive defensive record at home. That double returns 175/1 for those who are blinded by attractive odds.

In the golf I have taken a punt on Bradley Dredge to win the Madrid masters at 50/1 in play. He made a good start in the opening round finishing 4 shots off the lead on 5 under and conditions look good this afternoon. I doubt he will win this….but have taken those odds with the view to trading if he remains in the top 10 over the weekend which would yield a healthy profit. Alvaro Quiros is also good odds in-play at 17.5 and he could well take home the trophy if he produces another good round today.

The rugby is much more difficult as we enter the business end of the tournament. I fancy England to be more adventurous with Toby Flood taking his place at number 12. He and Wilkinson will be an exciting combination at 10/12 and it should also considerably enhance England’s kicking game which thus far in the tournament has been poor. Despite this, expect a bit more weakness in Englands defense now, and France may well find themselves scoring a few tries. It’s a tough one to call given the two-sides history and rivalry but I expect England to come out on top. Nice odds on Ashton (9.0) and Cueto (13) to be the first try scorer as we should expect England to get the ball wide a lot earlier with the creativity of Flood.
The other games are just as difficult to call, maybe omitting NZ, and I will have my fingers crossed for SA who I backed pre-tournament. I wont be betting on this game but I will be hoping SA pull through so I can trade out before the semi-finals when they meet NZ. Wales v Ireland should be a spectacle of a game and I will enjoy watching this game as a neutral. I think Ireland are the better side, but Wales are in good form and James Hook is one of my favourite players from the home nations. O’Driscoll will be as determined as ever for what will be his last world cup and it really is a close one to call. My interest hovers around the HT/FT markets and I would have to be adventurous and go with Wales to start strongly and apply the pressure to Ireland before the latter finally come out on top with the leadership of O’Driscoll. Wales HT/ Ireland FT trading at 7.8. Part of me wants to back Wales to win a very close encounter though so I will be hedging slightly and also backing Wales to win +2.5pts @ 1.9.

So in summary, bets for the weekends are as follows:
FOOTBALL
England to win @1.77
England to win 2-0 @ 8.4
Turkey to beat Germany @ 3.5
Multiple- Greece v Croatia, Andorra v Ireland, Slovakia v Russia under 2.5 and Netherlands v Moldova over 2.5 (four-fold)
Double- England tw 2-0, Ireland tw 1-0 @175/1

GOLF
Dredge to win Madrid Masters @50/1 (with view to trade on Sat/Sun)
Quiros to win Madrid Masters @ 17.5

RUGBY
England to win @1.59
Ashton fts @ 9
Wales HT/Ireland FT @7.8
Wales tw +2.5pts @1.9

Enjoy a good weekend of sport despite no Premier League football. Depending on success of these tips I might make this a regular column.