Sooty4444

There is an obvious highlight to this weekends football, but before we discuss the spectacle that will be Man Utd v Man City, I have been scratching my head thinking about the best places to make some money on this weekend’s football.

Last week I tipped Ngog and Bolton to kick start their season away at Wigan. A commanding 3-1 win along with an Ngog goal seems to have done just that and I expect to remain unbeaten again this weekend. The problem for Bolton is that a turnaround can take time, and the facts speak for themselves in the sense that the Trotters have lost all 4 of their home games so far this season. Sunderland have also had a struggled start to the season and they are yet to win on their travels. I think all the negatives here point to a draw, and to be honest, I don’t think that is a bad result for either team. Might have a cheeky punt on Ngog to bag the first as well, subject to odds come tomorrow.

Wolves against Swansea is one of those games that make us thankful to Sky Sports for not including it in the TV schedule. Wolves have only scored 3 goals at home so far this season and Swansea have managed just two in their 4 away defeats. Despite Stephen Fletcher being one of my footballing heroes (that guy just scores goals), I expect this to be a relatively low scoring affair with 1-0 or 1-1 looking like the most sensible bets.

Onto Sunday then, mostly interested in the Arsenal and Chelsea games here.

Arsenal are gradually starting to string some results together and they come off the back of an excellent win away in Marseille. Having said that Stoke are one of Arsenals “bogey teams”, which there are becoming an increasing amount of, and they know exactly what to do to nullify arsenals threat (defend the edge of their own area). I am looking forward to the battle between Crouch and Mertesacker, who together have a combined height of 117 feet, and I think this could be one of the key factors in determining the outcome of this game. Taking all things into account, I wishfully expect Arsenal to carry on their momentum and win this game……although it might be an arduous process piercing through Stoke’s dogged back line. Step up Mr Van Persie once again. An Draw/Arsenal HT/FT bet is where my money is going @ 5.0 and possibly VP to score at any time depending on the odds come Sunday.

I think Chelsea and QPR will be an interesting game. I expect QPR to play like they always do…with little discipline and a host of freedom and I think this could be the death of them against Chelsea, who are generally well drilled and organised. In spite of this, under VB they seem to sacrificed some of this sturdiness and displaced it with more attacking flair as they have already conceded 9 goals in their opening 8 PL games. I expect this to be a good match-up and there should be plenty of goal scoring opportunities. Unfortunately for QPR I don’t think they have a marksman who can take these chances and therefore Chelsea should win fairly comfortably. Fernandes, if you are listening, you are a good centre half and a goal scorer short of a good team!!

Now onto the main event……

The way this game shapes up will be determined entirely by the two managers. What team will they select, what formation and strategy will they enforce, and what mentality will they instruct into their players. The nations Super Sunday entertainment is in the hands of the Italian Stallion and the Ever present Scot.

Ferguson disappointed me last weekend when he changed his winning formula by opting to play a more defensive minded team against Liverpool. Manchester Utd have been so prolific this season when they have taken the game to their opponents with all guns blazing (admittedly leaking a few more goals), and last weekend Ferguson changed all this. First of all he opted for the midfield trio of Fletcher, Jones and Giggs. I am not Darren’s Fletchers biggest fan and the game against Liverpool enforced exactly the reason why. When Utd beat Arsenal 8-2, Anderson and Cleverly were the two central midfielders and these two bring so much more to the game than Fletcher. Yes Fletcher runs around a lot and he will put in a good shift….but Cleverly and Anderson will do that as well as providing some much needed vigour going forward. As well as this Fergie opted for Park and Young on the wing slash in a wide front man role, isolating the front man from support (which Welbeck was)…….I don’t know why Premier League managers have virtually forgotten the classic 4-4-2 formation. This is what was working for Utd in the early games of the season with Nani and Young on the wing linking up with the strikers to form a prolific attacking quartet con Rooney and Hernandez/Welbeck. I hope that Utd realize that they are at their best when they play without shackles.

With regard to Man City, I think it will be interesting to see what team and formation Mancini will go for. Their success this season has similarly come from sporting a 4-4-2 formation, with Silva and Nasri the wide players combining with Dzeko and Aguero to amount to City’s front quartet. Silva and Nasri can play where they like….and if City also go to the 4-5-1 that Mancini employed so often last season then I fear that their involvement in the game could be reduced. Will Mancini go with the midfield trio and play De Jong, Barry and Toure as he did so many times last season? Or will he stick to the 4-4-2 formation come 4-2-4 that has brought City their success?

Depending on the strategies enforced, this game could go either of two ways. A game where both sides are more worried about losing than winning the game, where the 4-5-1 is employed, and the players we love watching so much (Silva, Nasri, Young, Nani, Rooney) are asked to be “more disciplined” for  their teams. In this case I will be championing the draw @ 3.5 or even 1-1 @ 8.0. Alternatively we could see both managers go for it, with the 4-4-2 systems that have brought them their early season success. Here I can see goals, entertainment and fireworks and would be more inclined to go with a bet on 2-2 or over 2.5 goals. Unfortunately I fear that what we will see will be more in the appearance of former than the latter.

Summary
Bolton v Sunderland draw@ 3.35
Ngog FGS @ tbc  (bet depends on odds)
Wolves v Swansea draw @3.45
Arsenal v Stoke DrawHT/ArsenalFT @ 5.0
Van Persie to score at any time @ tbc (bet depends on odds)
Utd v City draw @ 3.5

UtdHT/DrawFT @ 16.5
CityHT/DrawFT @ 18.5

In addition I am going on this
Ipswich v Palace, Pboro v Leeds, Blackpool v Forest TREBLE over 2.5 goals @5.09

Good luck to all of you's.....happy weekend :)

Sooty4444 x

P.s Follow me on twitter @Sooty1989 to get my in-game views on Sunday

Unfortunately I didn’t have time to write a review for last night’s champions league games, and although the phrase “easy to say that now” may snidely enter your minds, the odds that really stood out for me yesterday afternoon were Inter Milan to win away at Lille trading @ 4.2. Inter are gradually improving under their new manager and they are obviously an experienced force in Europe so I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this number next to their name. Hopefully lots of people took advantage of that one, I know I certainly did. As well as this I expected City to scrape a win at home to Villareal having rested all their big players at the weekend.  Villareal at home was the most “winnable” game in their group and if they are to have any hope of qualifying from the “group of death” then they had to win that one.

So thoughts now turn to tonight’s action. Tonight is difficult in the search for value because there are a number of clear favourites in the form of Barcelona, AC Milan and Chelsea. I really can’t see an upset in any of those 3 matches, but at the same time, I would stay away from betting on these games just because the odds don’t reflect the usually unpredictable nature of the early group stages of the Champions League.

Tonight I am more interested in the Arsenal game. Arsenal are a far better side in Europe than they are in the Premier League at the moment and they play with less pressure and more creativity. Lets face it, teams in England have learnt how to play against Arsenal now, (Defend the edge of your own penalty area and they cant get through) maybe minus Van Persie, but in Europe they seem to get more freedom to play without becoming frustrated. They have already beaten Udinese who are currently joint top of the Italian league both home and away and were also denied a good win away in Dortmund by a wonder goal in the last few minutes. I think with Arsenal currently trading at 3.65 there is some value to be found here. Laying Marseille at 2.26 could be a viable alternative for those that want to protect themselves against the draw.

There are a couple of other fascinating games tonight that are of tremendous importance to the teams involved. Olympiakos at home to Dortmund is a big one as both teams are in desperate need of points in group F while Shakhtar and Zenit find themselves in an exciting group that could go any of 4 ways. Having watched Olympiakos and Dortmund already this season I expect both teams to score in this game and the same goes for the other game where both sides like to play with creativity and flair. Im going for a “both teams to score” double which can be found @ 3.19 which I think represents excellent value.

With the cleverly branded and most attractive “lucky long shot”, tonight I am going for another correct score double. Chelsea to beat Genk 2-0 and Milan to beat BATE 2-0 @ 37.49.

Summary

Arsenal to beat Marseille @ 3.65 OR Lay Marseille to beat Arsenal at 2.26
“Lucky Long Shot” Chelsea to win 2-0 and Milan to win 2-0 @37.49
Olympiakos v Dortmund and Shakhtar v Zentit both teams to score double @3.19

I for one am looking forward to tonights fixtures and I think that these bets could make it all the more interesting .
Good Luck,

Sooty4444 x

P.s Follow me on twitter @Sooty1989

The Premier league is back…..and after a disappointing and unsuccessful international break, I for one am looking forward to getting back to routine.

The pick of the games this weekend is obviously Liverpool v Utd. If you have watched Utd so far this season surely you can assume that there will only be one winner…….they have been playing some of the best football I have seen and they just seem to be so ruthless in front of goal. When you combine this with Liverpool’s inability to string together results and the fact that King Kenny doesn’t seem to know what his best team is yet, all the arrows point to a Utd win. However, there are a number of things that go against this. Firstly, Liverpool always seem to raise their game against Utd and they often manage to grind out the results by upping their performance. Secondly, it is at Anfield. If there ever was evidence to the statement that “the crowd are the extra man” then surely the Kop are the perfect example of this. Thirdly, those who have watched utd closely this season and have been able to see past the exhilarating football that they play would have recognized that they are very very very frail at the back. Yes they have been winning….but they have been letting other teams have a lot of chances, and more importantly they have been shipping goals. Suarez will eventually put one of these chances away. I think Liverpool are a very good price at 3.1 at home but this isn’t where my money will be going. I think a safer bet would be to take the odds of evens for over 2.5 goals….basically a license to print money. Liverpool/Draw (17.0) and Liverpool/Utd (28.0) also catches my eye given the fact that Utd always seem to be able to find that late goal and are the masters of the art of coming from behind.

Away from the headliner….there are some massive games this weekend that really could give us a clue as to how the table is going to shape up come the end of the season. 3 games in particular could be dubbed relegation play-offs given that both teams involved could be in danger of going down come the end of the season. Norwich Swansea is the first game and it would take a brave men to bet on the outcome of this one. My money would be on a draw and with few goals given both teams apparent inability to score goals. Unfortunately Grant Holt, Steve Morrison and Danny Graham don’t seem to be Premier League strikers and this could lead to both teams struggling for goals throughout the season. Due to the goalscoring difficulties and in my search for value I am tempted towards a 1-1 scoreline, which is currently trading at 7.2. The next game is Wigan v Bolton and I think this is a very very close one to call. If im honest, I am surprised that Bolton are the side propping up the rest of the Premier League table as I rate Owen Coyle as a manager, however losing Daniel Sturridge and Johan Elmander was a huge blow to them and is one that they haven’t yet been able to recover from. I tell you what though…..David Ngog can be a big player for them if he ever gets a run in the team. He was very unlucky at Liverpool in the sense that he was there during a very turbulent period and he was never going to get a look in in a team that played a lone front man, especially when that front man was Fernando Torres who at the time was one of the best strikers in the world. However, when he did get the chance…..mainly in the Europa league….he did manage to score goals and he strikes me as a “shift and shoot” striker, a bit like Daniel Sturridge.I am going to stick my neck out and back Bolton to start to turn their season around and avoid the drop, and I think they will grab a draw in this game to start their revival. The final of these “relegation play-offs” is QPR v Blackburn. I refuse to bet on any QPR games since they are perhaps the most unpredictable team I have ever seen……..I know I know, I have bottled it. For a bit of value put the Norwhich v Swansea and Wigan v Boltons in a double at 10.68 

My “lucky long-shot” (yes I am trying to create a brand) of the weekend is Arsenal to beat Sunderland 2-0 and Man City to beat Villa 2-0 @ 54.2

Now onto the Rugby……and now we are into the last 4 things should become much harder to call. I don’t think this is the case this time…..I expect NZ and France to both come away with the wins they need to get into the final. Wales have made a valiant effort so far throughout the world cup…….but lets face it….they are not one of the big names in World Rugby. France are a great price at 2.4 and I think that you would be a fool to not take that price. They showed against England that they are able to turn it on whenever they need to and in the first half against the old rose they did just that. Wales have some exciting young players but I think that the occasion will get to them and the pressure from home, even in a country as small as Wales, will be too much for them to concentrate on avoiding giving away those vital penalties that France and Yashvilli will exploit. I also expect New Zealand to comfortably beat Australia. South Africa were by far the better team against Australia and although they battled hard and were good defensively, I don’t think they deserved to win the game. I can see NZ running away with this one as they have the greater quality but also and perhaps more importantly they have leaders all over the pitch. As I think NZ will walk away with this one, I am attracted to the margin bets and NZ to win with a margin between 11 and 15 points takes my fancy at 6.8.

Summary of bets
Liverpool v Utd over 2.5 goals at evens
LiverpoolHT/DrawFT @ 17.0
Norwhich v Swansea 1-1 @ 7.2
NorwhichvSwansea draw and Wigan v Bolton draw (double) @ 10.68
LLS= Arsenal to beat Sunderland 2-0 and Man City to beat Villa 2-0 @54.2


France to beat wales @ 2.4
NZ to beat Australia by margin 11 to 15 points @ 6.8

Hope you enjoyed the review and happy betting for what should be another great weekend of sport 

Sooty4444 x

In true Ben Cassels style, find my tips for the weekend…..ignore them at your peril.


Unfortunately there is no Premier League this weekend so international football and the lower leagues will have to make do for our betting entertainment. There is also some interesting developments in the golf in Madrid, and when combined with the quarter finals of the Rugby, the weekend looks fruitful on a betting front.

England are starting to play with more adventure now that Capello has gradually started to turf out some of the older and more established players for the young guns. Because of this, England can be more unpredictable and I think this will work in their favour against lesser opponents. Although the Montenegrins have shown that they can play, and Eastern Europe is a tough place to travel, I expect England to come up trumps and confirm their qualification in style. It is also likely that Montenegro will rest some of their key players for their next game with Switzerland, which is to be the decider for second place in the group and that valuable stop in the play-offs to qualify for EURO 2012. England are a great price @ 1.77 for those who can afford to lump, but if you are looking for a more attractive price then I would go with England to win 2-0 which is trading at 8.4.

In other internationals I would stay away from straight up multiples because of the fact that a lot of teams have already qualified and are likely to field weaker teams. There may be a bit of value in backing some of the teams that are playing those who have already qualified. Turkey is a tough place to go and I expect Germany to experiment with their team so there may be a bit of value in backing Turkey @ 3.5.
If you are looking for Multiples then I would go for the old over/under 2.5 goals option. I expect Greece v Croatia, Andorra v Ireland and Slovakia v Russia to all end up under 2.5 goals and I can see over 2.5 goals for Netherlands v Moldova.

I have also gone for a “big win” double that includes England to win 2-0 and Ireland to win 1-0 in Andorra who have a very impressive defensive record at home. That double returns 175/1 for those who are blinded by attractive odds.

In the golf I have taken a punt on Bradley Dredge to win the Madrid masters at 50/1 in play. He made a good start in the opening round finishing 4 shots off the lead on 5 under and conditions look good this afternoon. I doubt he will win this….but have taken those odds with the view to trading if he remains in the top 10 over the weekend which would yield a healthy profit. Alvaro Quiros is also good odds in-play at 17.5 and he could well take home the trophy if he produces another good round today.

The rugby is much more difficult as we enter the business end of the tournament. I fancy England to be more adventurous with Toby Flood taking his place at number 12. He and Wilkinson will be an exciting combination at 10/12 and it should also considerably enhance England’s kicking game which thus far in the tournament has been poor. Despite this, expect a bit more weakness in Englands defense now, and France may well find themselves scoring a few tries. It’s a tough one to call given the two-sides history and rivalry but I expect England to come out on top. Nice odds on Ashton (9.0) and Cueto (13) to be the first try scorer as we should expect England to get the ball wide a lot earlier with the creativity of Flood.
The other games are just as difficult to call, maybe omitting NZ, and I will have my fingers crossed for SA who I backed pre-tournament. I wont be betting on this game but I will be hoping SA pull through so I can trade out before the semi-finals when they meet NZ. Wales v Ireland should be a spectacle of a game and I will enjoy watching this game as a neutral. I think Ireland are the better side, but Wales are in good form and James Hook is one of my favourite players from the home nations. O’Driscoll will be as determined as ever for what will be his last world cup and it really is a close one to call. My interest hovers around the HT/FT markets and I would have to be adventurous and go with Wales to start strongly and apply the pressure to Ireland before the latter finally come out on top with the leadership of O’Driscoll. Wales HT/ Ireland FT trading at 7.8. Part of me wants to back Wales to win a very close encounter though so I will be hedging slightly and also backing Wales to win +2.5pts @ 1.9.

So in summary, bets for the weekends are as follows:
FOOTBALL
England to win @1.77
England to win 2-0 @ 8.4
Turkey to beat Germany @ 3.5
Multiple- Greece v Croatia, Andorra v Ireland, Slovakia v Russia under 2.5 and Netherlands v Moldova over 2.5 (four-fold)
Double- England tw 2-0, Ireland tw 1-0 @175/1

GOLF
Dredge to win Madrid Masters @50/1 (with view to trade on Sat/Sun)
Quiros to win Madrid Masters @ 17.5

RUGBY
England to win @1.59
Ashton fts @ 9
Wales HT/Ireland FT @7.8
Wales tw +2.5pts @1.9

Enjoy a good weekend of sport despite no Premier League football. Depending on success of these tips I might make this a regular column.