Biarritz Vs Connaught

Yup I'll be fishing around alright. I was a backer of Biarritz as I felt Connaught were flattered last week but this betting is priced as if it was last year. Connaught shouldn't be 15 point dogs to anyone anymore. Those days are long gone. We see them every week in the Rabo League and no one likes playing them. They are as fit as fiddles, don't tire late on anymore and with Parks revelling in the role of playmaker and place kicking they have all the pieces now except for a few injuries

It's purely and simply a wrong price play. I was winding up to back Biarritz at -6 and for the life of me cannot fathom -15. Just can't get my head around it

Good luck with it. Not a game I am keen to watch (I'm still recovering from watching some of the reverse fixture) so will take the opportunity to have a Friday off. I think I might take a flyer on a bigger price and check in later.

Yes, Edinburgh off scratch probably is a better shout as it's not like a losing BP means anything to them here.

Wouldnt have a shilling on Edinburgh lads, they seem to have made wholesale changes and a lot of their 1st choicers aren't involved.  The way they are playing recently couldn't give you any confidence.

Racing still well in touch in the group and a win tomorrow will give them every chance going into the last 2 games, especially if Munster beat Saracens.  Hernandez doesn't start but their bench does look fairly strong. Gotta be the call at -1 or -2.

On the Connaught game, I agree with OP - +15 or +16 on the Westies is great value, even with Hairy Donkey starting at 8 for Btz.  The game Biarritz play will never destroy teams so I think Parks will keep them pinned back and keep them well in touch with pens.  If its close after 60 mins, you could see Connaught sneaking it.  Wonder what will Blanco then do with the new boys in charge?

Agree with you on the Treviso shout, MB. I think Treviso are constantly underrated and are capable of giving any side a game at home. They almost turned over Leicester the year before last (were leading with 2 or 3 mins to play) and they only gave way to Toulouse in the last 20 mins or so of this year's comp.

Ulster -11 is the only one I've actually pulled the trigger on so far. I don't think there was anything fluky about that win last weekend. They were happy to let Northampton have the ball in the second half and just hold onto what they had, but at home I think they'll be much more inclined to keep the foot on the gas. They stuffed Leicester at home last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome on Saturday. Muller being out is a bit of a balls, but Hartley's absence more than makes up for it. I know he's a headcase, but it doesn't change the fact that Northampton's performances go up a notch or two when he's on the pitch and it will also weaken their scrum which already looked under pressure last weekend.

underestimating munster no matter how they have just played or where they are playing next has been the road to the poor house.

Couldn't agree more with you there and it's the reason why I didn't pull the trigger on Sarries -3 earlier in the week. As much as I can't be backing Munster with any confidence, I'm not too keen on opposing them either.

I was just disappointed by them last weekend though. Coughlan and Downey punch plenty of holes, but there doesn't seem to be anyone with a bit of craft to take advantage on the follow up. Earls looked like getting through on the outside with a few half breaks, but most attacks ended up just petering out. Credit has to go to Saracens for their defensive organisation. I don't see their lineout going as badly again at home and can see them grinding out another victory.

im happy with my 1.07 lay on leicester

I'm not at all sure that's been true about Munster in the past few seasons, in fact the exact opposite could be the case. They were beaten at home by Ulster last season, lost to London Irish the season before and failed to make it to the QFs, and were well beaten at home by Harlequins in the Amlin cup that same season.

I think they are on the up, but any belief that this is the same Munster team as 5+ years ago is completely misjudged.

(although technically underestimating anyone is of course the road to the poor house)

I forgot to even put that game in! For all the people that have knocked Peter Stringer, in his decade or so at Munster I don't think he ever did anything as thick as Murray did against Metro this year. Difference between winning and losing right there.

I think they had a couple binned as well. The trouble for Biarritz may well be the weather which does not look very nice. And the fact that their passing is utterly atrocious.

and yes, conn did have two players given yellow cards.

any idea if it is windy too? i was thinking the +16 looked too big but then i also have an image of yachvili kicking about half a dozen penalty goals their forwards grinding out a try and biarritz winning something like 25 - 06.
i think i might leave tonights games alone.

That really is a terrible mess of a pitch and it's still pouring down. Connacht should just hoof the thing at the Biarritz back-three all night and wait for the inevitable blunders.

well connacht certainly have the man for that job RM. He's no too good at much else but in poor weather he can be a match winner (to be fair he played very well last week & not just his kicking)

Yachvilli will be lucky to get any footing for kicking any pens

They have the usual three lads with plank of wood broom desperately trying to get some of the water off the pitch but the main issue will be it is still raining

crazy if they start this game

Looks nearly as bad as that Bath 3-3 Toulouse game a few years back.