rarrar

Hello & thank you for visiting my blog.

I am going to attempt to do something that I think would be pretty incredible but also something that I strongly believe is possible & that I can do. I want to turn an initial deposit of £20 in betfair into £100,000. This will be possible because of my "Edge" which will mathematically guarantee that this goal is possible. All I have to do is maintain this edge....that is the hard part.

The reason I know that this edge exists & is because I've seen it in action. I've been following fellow blogger on betfair Jinxy who backs a horse before the off with a view to trading in play when the price shortens. You can read his tipping blog here http://community.betfair.com/jinxy1/blog.

The basic strategy is to back a horse for 2 pts and then when the price shortens if the horse runs well lay it off for 3 pts to give you an all round profit of 1 pt.

Here's an example:

If we say that 1pt = £10

We would back our horse "Tradeplease" for 2 pts IE £20 at a price of say 10's (decimal odds). I know that to make a return on my investment of 50% that I need the odds to drop by 1/3rd or by 33%. I will then put a LAY bet in the queue at a price of 6.6 for 3 pts which is £30. I will check the "keep in play" button so that the lay bet is still offered after the race starts. I am then hoping for my horse "Tradeplease" to run well so that the price drops to 6.6 or below. When my £30 lay bet gets matched I will have an all green positive position on the race of +£10 regardless of whether my horse goes on to win or not.

Now the way I hope to turn this £20 into £100k is by using the most aggressive staking plan possible. This is the Kelly Criterion developed by the master of gambling John Kelly. I you can see Kelly staking at work by following another Betfair blogger The Snapper who is using it to buy himself a house in Florida, see The Snapper's blog here http://community.betfair.com/thesnapper/blog

The Snapper will tell you that John Kelly tells you to bet with a % of your bank according to your edge. Now what edge is possible for me to generate?

Jinxy is the master of the in-play trade. He recorded an edge of 30% in May on his tips and is so far UNBEATEN in June. Now to put this into context a 30% edge is enormous, so ridiculously big that if someone had came & told me that this guy was achieving a 30% edge over the market that I wouldn't have believed them. Is his edge sustainable? Possibly, I actually think it may be.

I will be researching my own trades as well as following Jinxy's tips and my target is to maintain a long term solid edge of 10%. If I can maintain this edge I my Kelly Calculator tells me that if I follow the model exactly I should be able to reach £100k in just 431 trades. It's a simple 12 step process of doubling my bank each time. If I double my bank 12.3 times I will reach 100k, it sounds so simple when put like that.

Of course I don't know if I can do it. I don't know if I can achieve a long term edge of 10%. I don't know if I have the discipline to stick to all the rules I set out for myself when making my trading selections.

But what does it matter, I'm only going to deposit £20, I could spend this in 2 hours down the pub. I'm risking an amount of money that is inconsequential to me but which has the potential to deliver an enormous amount which would totally change my life.

So I don't know if I can do it but I do know that IT IS POSSIBLE.

I'll try to post my trades & tips before so that people can follow them if they wish. I'll also put them up on my twitter, I'm @RarrarTrading & you can follow me here http://twitter.com/RarrarTrading

I posted 3 tips yesterday & they all won, lets see how long I can keep the 100% record going for. It's sure to be a wild ride!