rarrar

Ok so yesterday I was 1/2 which produced the inevitable loss of 1pt for the day. The frustrating thing is that this loss was avoidable!

I mentioned that I am new to this, see what date I joined betfair over in the right hand column! Now making a mistake is fine in betting & in life, it is making the same mistake a 2nd time which is a crime that I will be punished for so I need to find out why & not make the same mistake again.

From my early analysis I'd identified 3 trades for yesterday. The 1st was Milnagavie in the 14.00 at Doncaster. When I was looking to place my bet the horse was priced at around 7.6 which was slightly lower than I wanted. I was looking to back for a price of 8.0 to then lay at about 5.2. It then turns out that Jinxy tipped Milnagavie in his blog here http://community.betfair.com/jinxy1/blog/2011/06/12/looking-for-a-trade-in-the-first

This was viewed by over 500 people & of course the price dropped like a stone from there! So I decided not to bet as i couldn't get the price I wanted. But I was happy because my analysis had given me the correct horse to trade on.

My 2nd tip of the day was Solemn in the 14.30 at Sailsbury. Now Jinxy said in the comments of his 1st blog post that he was going to tip Solemn but had backed out of it because of the soft ground...

By the way I'm definitely not making it up that I picked the same horses as Jinxy! You can see my blog post here at 14.21 http://community.betfair.com/rarrar/blog/2011/06/12/solemn-in-the-next-at-sailsbury and Jinxy's comment was after at 14.58 http://community.betfair.com/jinxy1/blog/2011/06/12/looking-for-a-trade-in-the-first

So the analysis was correct I just didn't get the message about the soft ground in time! Solemn did run well but he didn't do well enough with the ground, it would have been the easiest trade in the world in the dry but sadly I should not have bet & it cost me.

So we have a new rule to add which is obviously, if the going changes..all bets are off!

The final trade for the day was Norville in the 15.25 at Doncaster, I saw that he was over priced pre race & he actually moved in enough for a trade prior to the off which was nice. However, even he didn't run well in the soft ground so it would have been risky letting him go in play.

So I'll dust myself down & move on knowing that I have new knowledge that will save me losses in the future, I think this is what a betting strategy should be like, constant tweaks & revisions to improve the model that you are using.

The rain kept coming down late into the evening where I was yesterday so the ground is sure to be pretty sodden for a few days. I'll be taking a day or so off until things firm up some more and looking for some good selections later on in the week.

So all in all a costly but valuable sunday :-)