The results trades were:
15.55 Chester - Light From Mars traded from 18 down to 8.2
175.30 Sandown - Ahtoug traded from 12 down to 7.2
16.00 Bath - Witchry traded from 6.0 down to 1.89
17.30 York - Collect Art traded from 6.0 down to 1.08!
If you'd traded those you'd be 4 pts up. My loosing trade was:
17.10 Bath - Duneen Dream I backed at 7.0 and needed a trade price of 4.6 but he only traded to 5.6 so this gave me a loss of 2pts leaving me with a profit so far of 2 pts.
Now it's important to analyse why my horse didn't trade and plug any leaks in my selections as I need a strike rate above 66% to make a profit and higher than this to maintain my required 10% edge. Duneen Dream went out ahead to lead the field as expected and as I wanted him to, however..
The horse was allowed to run too freely and quickly pulled out 5/6 lengths on the field with another runner. Maybe the jockey thought he was going at an ok pace because this other horse was with him but these two went miles clear over the 1st half of the race and the market KNEW that it was too fast. As they went further & further ahead the price actually increased and as the market expected the rest of the field reeled them in during the 2nd half of the race.
What I needed to happen was for the horse to take the lead but run at an acceptable pace to retain the lead further into the race. It was an 11f race & I just needed him in with a shout after about 9f for the price to drop. So it was a bad ride from a jockey that hadn't been onboard him before. I believe that I would choose this horse again and it was just bad luck that he didn't trade. This bad luck is built into all my calculations though and as of today on the very small sample size the edge stands at 20%, I don't expect it to last though.
Even more good news is that if every day is like today I will reach my £100k target in just over 100 days as the model suggests it should take 431 bets.
A word on Kelly staking. I am using full Kelly stakes as advocated by The Snapper (check out his blog, it's a must read). I treat every trade I make as a bet with odds of 1.5, because I'm staking 2pts in order to win 1pt profit. So long as my edge exists Kelly stakes will ensure that I never go broke and will also ensure that I maximize my profits so I reach my 100k as fast as possible. For a 10% edge and placing bets with odds of 1.5 John Kelly tells me that I should bet with 20% of my bank on every bet.
So starting with my £20 bank this morning it hit a high today of £26.22 following the 3 wins before falling back after a loss & a win to finish the day at £23.45.
Here is a screenshot of my Profit & Loss for today.
And here's a screenshot of my final balance today, remember I've just deposited £20. Lets see how big this balance can grow!
Over & out.
Rarrar