Politics
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
With less than 3 Months to the Usa Midterm elections on November 3rd, I thought I start a markets thread for those interested in betting on them.
I don't have any positions/bets yet, looking for opinions and strategies etc.
Unusually in this election both parties are saying there are shenanigans going and the election will be stolen. Should we take
both the participants words on face value and bet accordingly?
Going on the word of the 2 parties, the elections will very likely be dragged thru the courts and settlement of bets could be months or years, or be settled
prior to a court review based on which party posessed what on a particular date.
The 2020 election should be remembered here, setllement was delayed 5 weeks because the losing participant cried foul to the courts.
Based on the adage "Posession is nine tenths of the law"
Rep to hold the senate at 2.02 seems some value.
I don't have any positions/bets yet, looking for opinions and strategies etc.
Unusually in this election both parties are saying there are shenanigans going and the election will be stolen. Should we take
both the participants words on face value and bet accordingly?
Going on the word of the 2 parties, the elections will very likely be dragged thru the courts and settlement of bets could be months or years, or be settled
prior to a court review based on which party posessed what on a particular date.
The 2020 election should be remembered here, setllement was delayed 5 weeks because the losing participant cried foul to the courts.
Based on the adage "Posession is nine tenths of the law"
Rep to hold the senate at 2.02 seems some value.
| USA 2026 Midterm Elections -- Which party will control the Senate in 2026? |
| 2 Runners £103,667 Matched |
| 100.3% | 99.3% | |||||||
| Democratic Party | 1.95 | 1.96 | 1.97 | 1.99 | 2 | 2.04 | £49,002 | |
| £35 | £18 | £42 | £174 | £1,194 | £96 | |||
| Republican Party | 1.97 | 2 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.08 | £54,665 | |
| £99 | £1,201 | £164 | £58 | £33 | £5 |
| USA 2026 Midterm Elections -- Which party will control the House in 2026? |
| 2 Runners £629,753 Matched |
| 100.2% | 99% | |||||||
| Republican Party | 5.9 | 6 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.8 | £149,296 | |
| £152 | £1,267 | £86 | £411 | £102 | £20 | |||
| Democratic Party | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.2 | 1.21 | 1.22 | £480,457 | |
| £754 | £7,306 | £1,282 | £14,962 | £733 | £20 |
| USA 2026 Midterm Elections -- Balance of Power - 2026 Midterms |
| 4 Runners £11,026 Matched |
| 104% | 100% | |||||||
| Democrats Sweep | 1.98 | 2 | 2.04 | 2.1 | 2.12 | 2.14 | £4,771 | |
| £20 | £55 | £20 | £25 | £503 | £34 | |||
| R Senate, D House | 2.54 | 2.56 | 2.58 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 2.68 | £4,389 | |
| £6 | £10 | £100 | £3 | £22 | £20 | |||
| Republicans Sweep | 6 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 8 | £1,780 | |
| £110 | £17 | £1 | £3 | £5 | £3 | |||
| D Senate, R House | 140 | 150 | 160 | 410 | 420 | 950 | £86 | |
| £2 | £1 | £4 | £2 | £4 | £2 |
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 25
|
By:
Another reason I think Reps to hold the senate @ 2.02 is value is:
The reps absolutely need to hold on to the senate to continue with their implementation of project 2025 and to continue witholding "The Files" The senate is vital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Which party will Control the United States Senate after the 2026 Senate Election??
This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. The party deemed to control the United States Senate will be the party that reaches 51 seats or the party that reaches 50 seats if the incoming Vice President is also a member of that party, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Any independent senator will be added to totals of the party if they caucus/align with that Party.
This market will be settled once the party projected to have Control of the Senate is announced by the Associated Press. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
State of play...
United States Senate ; 100 · Majority (53). Republican (53). Minority (47). Democratic (45); Independent (2). There are 35 Senate seats up for election in the 2026 midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.This total includes 33 regularly scheduled Class 2 seat elections alongside 2 special elections to fill vacancies in Florida and Ohio. Republican-held seats up for election: 22 seatsDemocratic-held seats up for election: 13 seats | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Hugely popular wars
Hugely popular extra taxes on anything not made in USA Hugely popular high inflation Hugely popular persecution of immigrants and or people with pigmentation. Hugely popular withholding the files and protecting the perps. Hugely popular massive drop in tourism due to spats with neighbours and the popular immigration initiatives With all those plus points, Reps holding onto the senate is a cert surely? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Looks tight,... And at this range who knows.
Tough to see Trump turning it around as his decline continues. But incumbents could just hang on with personal vote. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Which files are being witheld? Who are the Senate protecting? Do we know any names?
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
USA has dropped 5 places in 2 years from 24th in 2023 to 29th in 2025 in the "Corruption Perceptions Index"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index The data for 2026 isn't out but the trend is there Both parties are saying there is foul play going on. One of the participants who also controls the legal system has a history of claiming he never loses. Given the above facts, Reps to control senate at 2.04 is a rick in the market I'm not piling in yet because I think the rick will get bigger. G'luck if you're betting on this market.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Trump will rig these elections and the big one.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
That's true, he's trying his hardest to rig the elections to favour election integrity by preventing Democrats from cheating. You can tell he's not worried about the midterms or he would have pulled out of Iran by now.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
It's a sad state of affairs when you simply cannot trust the current leader and party of government to run free and fair elections. That is America today.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I think you must be a bit out of date, Biden's not the current leader. Trump is doing a marvellous job sorting out the election integrity stopping Democrats from cheating.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Someone has cheated Mike Lindell out of the nomination.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
He lost, by 11% as far as I can tell to Lisa Demuth and is paying $825,000 for a state wide recount, and also claiming fraud citing watching the numbers getting updated on television as his main evidence.
wiki:
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Even when republican beats republican they cry fraud.
Looking like these midterms are likely to cause the biggest and most epic cries of "Fraud" in American history. The results are so gonna get dragged thru the courts... Weeks? Months? Years? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
We should all be in favour of election integrity, and that's exactly what Dave is trying sort out now to stop Democrats cheating. Why would you want to make it easier to cheat? The answer is if you are a leftie because they can't win any other way. Democrats made it illegal to ask for voter ID in California and they take 4 weeks to count the votes because they need time to cheat. India with 1.4 billion people count their votes in a day.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Donalds mate bought the company that owns all the voting machines for $1.3billion.
I think he got a position in the cabinet after he bought them.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
You must be getting mixed up with Mike Pillow. He was sued by Dominion for 1.3 Billion but he doesn't own them, he owns a bed factory.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Michigan and Maine economies trade heavily with Canada. Democrats big favourites now to win Senate seats there after trade talks fail.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, Texas and Alaska are all Senate races that will be directly impacted by a trade war. Agriculture, Seafood, car manufacturers and multiple other industries are in play. If no sign of things cooling down, Democrats are in a very strong position for the midterms.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Canada-Usa Trade talks have 'collapsed', Trump said he would impose 50% tarrifs on Canada, Mark Carney when asked by a reporter "You're at war when you get attacked, we got attacked".
Seems like Trump is bored with Iran, he's declared the straits of Hormuz USA territory (a huge victory for him, when are the victory parades?) and now moved on to attacking Canada. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Canada now putting the boot in by applying 50% tariffs.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Headline on BBC news
Whistleblower: Planned USPS mail ballot system is flawed. Trump signed an EO back in april ordering USPS to only send ballots to people on his own list and it's not going well both logistically and constitutionally. This election is so going to be dragged thru the courts. Is there a specific date when the winning senate & house contestants are formally accepted as "the winners" I.E. like the 6th Jan formality of accepting the winning presidential votes.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Anyone had a bet they can post ?
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Not me, not yet
A) not sure it will pay out on the normally expected day B) both sides are claiming foul play is going on and I'm hoping for better odds on who I suspect will benefit most from that foul play if it plays out. Have you got a bet on it? |