Next Conservative Leader

What will betfair do with the next leader markets if Reform and the Conservative & Unionist parties merge?
(a merger is being discussed according to media)

New name will probably be ReformConU

Void if it suits them

Settle on new leader if it suits them.

Who knows?

Badenoch is giving her leader speech now.

Well they aren't going to get in but the Tory pledge to abolish stamp duty on the purchase of main homes is a policy that is long, long, long overdue.  Could never understand the tax, which is completely absurd imo.  Fully in favour of extra taxes on second homes though

Labour have to do something about Stamp Duty. they are too stupid to work this out on their own. This will help but both parties are out of touch and any policies / announcements right now do not carry any weight. Farage the hollow man Liar needs to be exposed for what he is befor any numbers vote Labour and even then pro Genocide MP's will be targeted.

CB, I thought their pledge to cut immigration was a great idea.

T'was ever thus, the elected politicians allow the liberalists in the treasury and obr to dictate policy (including fiscal). I don't know exactly how Reform will navigate that, but I do know that neither the Tories or Labour could. As we'll only have reinforced at the end of November.

Yeah I am sure the public will believe her after 14 years! She is as stupid as Jenrick!

For me Kemi has some very good positives but she's not a leader. and definitely not good pm material. Again, when she was in office she lobbied for higher immigration (students), and completely abandoned the work to get rid of EU law from the UK statute book.

A decent minister capability, she is/was good on anti woke, and anti identitarianism.

She is a typical political class idiot

Oh and she is LIAR @Stanford!

Can we have a firm prediction please Escapee? I need to know what to lay.

Tory fantasist, wants to cut English degrees, can't spell britain

I had a political conversation with my elderly dad at the weekend.  It revolved around inequality, housing being a limited asset and inequality pushing up house prices.  Little did I know that he was heavily involved in a study on the effect that higher divorce rates and higher single occupancy was having and was going to have on housing in the Eighties.  It beggars belief that the conclusion back then was that more housing was badly needed, and successive governments knowing that did feck all about it.

Tory fantasist, wants to cut English degrees, can't spell britain

Coming from somone who supports an idiot who doesn't know the difference between a hostage and a sausage.

Reform is immigration specific, and will not know where to start to address non-immigration policies eg economy, nhs, law, etc.

Reform is a one horse pony!!

Reform is immigration specific, and will not know where to start to address non-immigration policies eg economy, nhs, law, etc.

Reform is a one horse pony!![/i]

Are they not allowed to do what Labour and the Tories do and just roll a dice?

They certainly are pony.

They certainly haven't a clue about governing or policy.  Will enough Tories defect so at least they have some idea what they are doing?

If you stated every serious issue that needs to be tackled by the state, immigration is at the centre of it.

eg

Islamist attacks and kills at a synagogue.

or we could take CBs concern, shortage of housing. plenty of housing gets built, but it'll never be enough if importing a million people annually.

It's amusing how ignorant people actually are, I suppose it's wilful ignorance.

Let's say Shrewd goes to his local hospital A&E, and take wait time is a typical 4 hours. He clicks his fingers, and all of a sudden the patients not born in the UK or kids of people not born in the UK disappear. Then see how many people are waiting....

What happens if the doctors and nurses not born in the UK disappear?

Why would that happen? certainly Reform are not objecting to giving visas to medical professionals, and certainly I am not either. but long term they need to remove the cap, so that we have trained enough of our own. something like that would take at least 10 years to filter through.

There aren't too many problems that can't be linked to mass immigration. One area I would say is the lamentable public transport system, where the country consistently gets rooted by the transport unions. It won't affect me, but I was hearing today that a significant portion of the country's rail network will be shut down over the two weeks of Xmas. When, oddly enough, many people need to travel long distances.

Every party wants to tackle immigration.  It will have more effect on housing than the NHS because immigrants are generally young and healthy.

A bigger issue re the NHS is the birth rate and an ageing population.  It's pie in the sky to think we will fill the NHS with national breds.  I'd bet long odds on it'll be the other way round

If you're genuinely interested, CB. Listen to the Danny Kruger element of the planet normal podcast.

https://youtu.be/zSiHSJRUD8Y?si=2nzrn7TX22J_Sj51&t=1650

Re housing the UK built over 300k new houses a year in the 60s.  This fell to half that in the 80s and 90s and was lower still in the noughties.

Nope. I don't know about the Libtards, but every party claims it wants to tackle immigration. And does exactly the opposite.

Obviously that was the primary reason for leaving the EU, ending free movement. What happens, the Tories choose to open the borders to the rest of the world instead.

It's not just housing, CB. It's all the infrastructure, schools, hospitals, roads, sewerage, power, everything. The first step is to stop mass immigration. Which, funnily enough, is a lot easier than building new towns from scratch.

UK birth rate is 1.56 (a third of those are non UK born, that's where they are using the NHS)  You need a birth rate of 2.1 to replenish a population so without these foreign births we'd be properly stuffed.  Immigration is a big issue.  But a far bigger issue is age inequality and a birth rate that can't sustain the elderly.  It's about a third of the NHS that is made up of non UK breds, and I suspect if you only include those under 35, it's way more than a third.  Biggest problem for the NHS is the disproportionately elderly population.

Declining birth rate is a global phenomenon, but it's not rectified by mass immigration. The people coming in will get old and have the needs of the older domestic population (without having contributed anything in many cases). We are definitely not short of people of working age right now. We are however short of them actually working.

aka, a ponzi scheme

Problem with UK politics is everything has been sticking plasters and short termism.  Decades of insufficient house building being one very good example.  The NHS has arguably never been short of investment.  One of the few areas in the UK that hasn't.  Problem with immigration is to sort it you have to break International Law.  We don't have the infrastructure to process the numbers so breaking International Law is the only option.  Reform will prolly break it, but what that'll mean I've no idea.  It's prolly dependent on several other countries doing the same (which they may well do)

It's one area where Trump might do us all a favour.  The UK needs the US to break International Law so it can follow suit without the consequences.

Imo we need a lot of immigration, but of course we want working immigration.  We also don't want to lose qualified working people born here to Australia, Dubai or wherever.

What happens if somebody clicks their fingers and the leader of the opposition disappears?

I want immigrants that countries like Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, S Korea, Australia and even China would like to have. I also would like a diversified band of immigrants, not confined from S Asia and Afghanistan.

I like immigrants who appreciate UK Plc for its political stability; freedom of speech and movement; economic opportunities; law and order; welfare state; nhs; etc.

I do not want immigrants who sponge off UK Plc eg repeated on benefit handouts upon qualification; in the black economy and non-tax paying; repeatedly rubbish UK Plc; do not integrate or speak English in public or at major retailers; etc.

Good points Clydebank.

Of course, the UK chose to leave the world's largest pool of free-moving free labour, replacing Polish plumbers with migrants from our colonial past: India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh in order of number. Many are non working. Imo, everyone who voted to Leave the EU bears some responsibility for this mess but since the Brexit campaign targeted the resentment/perennial loser vote, it's a section of our society with a dim sense of personal responsibility.

What kind of concoction are you taking today? Nothing stops EU people from applying to work in the UK. What Brexit did was give the government the opportunity to remove the discrimination, all people applying are treated equally.

What they did was make the rules of entry so weak that anyone from anywhere could come if they fancied it (not just EU)

Plus of course, all of their fake relatives. Brexit made the politicians directly accountable, instead of allowing them to point to free movement. Which is why the Tories were booted out, and the Labour rabble will be at the next opportunity.

the basic premise absurd, there are upwards of 70 million people total in the UK. and we can't create our own plumbers

Polish plumbers (for example) did come to the UK, as their earnings were so low in their home country, they could afford to undercut domestic plumbers. Removing the incentive for domestic people to be plumbers.

At the same time, the Labour gnvt wanted everyone go to 'uni' and accumulate a lifetime of debt, rather than learn a lucrative, useful and practical skill (such as, becoming a plumber).

Of course, now it's actually pretty lucrative to become a plumber, as due to the EU, Poland has caught up with the UK. British school leavers are brainwashed into wasting 3 years + at 'university', most of them certainly wouldn't wish to lower themselves into such a demeaning job.

You are missing an important point or two, Cider. The reason Polish plumbers flourished in the UK was because they were better and cheaper. Worse and more expensive? That is most people's perception of everyday life now. Gee, I wonder if there's some relation. Actions have consequences. Going forward, the same people who voted for Brexit now need another scapegoat. They will always need another scapegoat, because the feckless always do.

Cheaper, obviously.

Better, nonsense.

As for the 'scapegoat'. I've already coached you on that. For decades, politicians blamed the EU and freedom of movement for excessive immigration. Now, they can't. It's no surprise therefore, that so many of them loved the EU is it, as now the responsibility can't be side stepped. That is of course, also why they love a quango (or 400).

Lazy to generalise but I don't have much time before going racing. If you tell a bunch of losers that it's not their fault, they're going to support that idea. The problem is coming up with different excuses for them through time as they mess up again and again and again.




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I have absolutely no idea what point you are trying to make with that (I'm assuming doctored) image.

You appear to be claiming that a country of 70 million is incapable of creating its own plumbers. I'm not aware of any widespread shortage of plumbers before freedom of movement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7oPJ4U3SEs

Very interesting bit at 10.30 and the next 3 minutes.  Caller calls in and says "I've never heard anyone say I want a wealth tax and I want to stop the immigrants coming in"

I've being saying both.  But it's spot on.  There is an impasse because of that.

According to AI  ....

A January 2023 YouGov poll found that 69% of Conservative voters supported a 2% annual tax on wealth over £5 million, while 77% supported a 1% annual tax on wealth over £10 million.

A September 2025 Trades Union Congress (TUC) poll found 68% support among the general public for a 2% annual tax on assets over £10 million, a measure that had strong cross-party backing.

A July 2025 poll cited by Left Foot Forward indicated 61% support for a wealth tax among Conservative voters, though specific thresholds were not detailed in the snippet.

He's very likely right that Starmer will be replaced before the election, and Labour's only chance of re-election is to support a wealth tax

I'm afraid, when it comes to fiscal matters, the public are generally ignorant. Including the remaining Conservative voters, judging by that polling.

Even more ignorant than the likes of the last few Tory Chancellors and Rachel from Accounts?

Reform's economic policies, which were laughably incompetent post 2024 election, make Tory Chancellors and Rachel from Accounts look like Einstein.

Farage said that Liz Truss's budget was the best since Thatcher.  Unfortunately he has no integrity, so he deleted the tweet.

Ironically, only KK had a decent budget. Not without error. Funnily enough, one of his proposals was to cut stamp duty !

Still we can hope and I suspect that will be enough defections experience and common sense defecting to Reform to halt said daft policies.  My dad thinks there will, but I doubt it.

I would definitely agree with what Farage posted.

For what it's worth, Labour's initial reaction was that the only change they would reverse was to the top rate of income tax.

If you watched that YT video, they mentioned how daft Stamp Duty is.  It's not a big deal, it's just dumb.

It was actually a pretty modest budget, not like the gaslighting would have you believe. For example they were only proposing to reduce stamp duty, not eliminate it.

If Farage agreed and had integrity he wouldn't have deleted it.  He's a guesser and knew if he kept it he'd have to stand by it and that would damage his credibility

I agree CB. As I alluded to yesterday, it's not that simple. The liberalists in the obr and treasury would be demanding to see what you would replace the lost tax revenue with. Which doesn't happen in a party conference speech.

Stamp Duty is similar to betting tax on turnover or a Betfair model where you pay a commission on each transaction.  Why tax doing business, labour mobility and make unaffordable housing even more unaffordable?  It's an insane tax

As I've stated on numerous occasions, pretty much every stakeholder wanted KK and Truss to fail. Including the majority of their own party. Who literally would rather sacrifice the next election, rather than have supported the non wets. They made plenty of errors but doomed to fail, especially with no public mandate.

They were idiots! Look at what their legacy is! Then she sold him down the river.

You are inconsistent CB. You appear to support the removal of stamp duty, but at the same time, deride the KK budget (which reduced stamp duty).

What was it in that budget that you particularly objected to?

Everything that was proposed in that budget was eminently sensible. Could be argued it was too much too soon, could be argued that they hadn't laid out the plans for reduction in spending. But there was nothing wrong with the headline proposals.

Stamp duty on main homes is a minor thing.  In principle it's daft.

Sunak predicted what would happen if they adopted said budget, but then Sunak is much smarter than Truss and Kwarteng.  One of the few good guys in politics imo.  Unfunded tax cuts and a black hole in government finances.  Principles over common sense.  It would also increase inequality which is bad for the economy imo.  The argument for trickle down economics is flawed imo.  I used to buy into it, and there's an element of truth in it, but it hasn't worked in practice at all, and the reason for that is to work the wealth of the rich needs to be used for new infrastructure and building new assets.  In practice, they are just buying up existing assets with their wealth.  That pushes said limited assets out of the hands of more and more people every year.  It's not rocket science imo

Sunak oversaw furlough for nearly 2 years, and the £50K bounce back loan giveaway!

It's not so much 'trickle down', but bl00dy common sense. You don't have to look too far (Ireland) to see that low long term corp tax brings in much more tax (for example)

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If very wealthy people used their wealth like Sir Jim Ratcliffe to finance, research and regenerate in the UK, then there wouldn't be this issue, but most don't.

They aren't going to hang around for an additional annual envy tax.

Furlough was a disaster, but Sunak's hands were tied.  He was given an impossible job by Boris.  Had there been another Chancellor it likely would've been a bigger clusterfcuk imo.  It would've been even worse under a Labour government, who wanted to lockdown for longer.  I guess if you are relating it to politics, maybe Labour are too soft to make tough decisions, and this was a tough decision that needed to be made.  Boris made the decision, not Rishi.  He didn't want to.  He was too weak and caved in.

Regarding COVID you needed, tough selfless leaders who were willing to sacrifice themselves and take the massive abuse that they'd have got, because public opinion was overwhelmingly pro lockdown.  Tough leaders who are selfless, are a very rare species indeed.  So wouldn't knock the individual myself

Inevitably had the government not locked down, a lot more elderly and people with medical conditions and poor immune systems would've died short term, and the PM would've got the blame.  You can't really blame any PM for caving in under those circumstances.  The debate needed to be about long term life expectancy, and how a good economy means higher life expectancy.  But it never was. 

The reality is that locking down will have reduced life expectancy more than COVID.

And obviously with Boris, he didn't comply himself with the restrictions he was imposing on everyone else.  On a personal level he had no integrity

We've become a nation of hand wringers, so I guess lockdown was unavoidable.  That will never mean I will support a political party because they are not a hand wringing party.  They've got to have integrity, be genuine and have policies that are good for the country, not for themselves too.  That's not the case with Reform imo.  UK politics is a bit of a mess at the moment, with every party failing miserably.  I'd support any party that had a wealth tax in it's manifesto, apart from the Greens.  Which is the only party that does. AHEM

The Resolution Foundation "said the wealth gap between people in their early 30s and people in their early 60s has more than doubled between 2006-08 and 2020-22 - from £135,000 to £310,000, in real cash terms.

Regional inequality remains an issue, with median average wealth per adult higher in London and the South East.

Could wealth tax be the answer?

The report comes seven weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, having batted away calls earlier this year for a wealth tax.

Former Labour leader Lord Kinnock is among those to have called for one, in an interview with Sky News."

It strikes me the British Public are currently fascinated by spivs and charlatans. How else do you explain the popularity of Farage and Reform UK? That being the case the only hope the Tories have left is to bring back Johnson. That'll give the average British voter something to salivate over in three and a half years time.

In theory I'd vote Labour for the first time ever if they were open to introducing a wealth tax.  Reform have cornered the anti hand wringing, anti immigration niche, but they are basically a right wing Tory party fooling the poor.  Just like the Greens have cornered environmental issues.  Even though I think environmental issues are very important, and hand wringing does my head in, I could never in a million years have either because I see one party as self serving frauds, and the other as communists dressed up as environmental champions.

Greens have a hypnotist leader who can make the tory leaders
tits bigger. Supersize Jenrick and Hunt and Spaffer.

Sunak got his green card and is now selling his privy council weekly memo to AI firms in the states.

Johnson resigned from parliament to avoid being expelled for lying.

Truss was turned down by the monster raving looney party.

I think there's a reasonable chance musk will want Jenrick and offer him leadership of Reform.

That depends on how much of a dead  parrot you think the Conservative Party is.

I am not sure. Reform is a one trick pony that will eventually be exposed. There is a huge place in our society for a naturally Conservative Party and at the moment that is Labour.

There will come a time when ordinary people will demand a decent life and Labour will veer to more radical alternatives.

The game is not up for the Conservatives……. Yet

Garvin Williamson the former Defence and Education Sec sacked from both posts is being grilled in the Covid enquiry now about his non-action during Covid about school closures. He looked and sounded uninformed, shifty, economical with the truth and hopelessly incompetent. He was even reminded by the female "griller" the question posed was a short and direct one when the plonker went into one of his many roundabout answers.

How the heck could this most incompetent minister UK Plc has ever had in its history be awarded a knighthood? He was incompetent and a total failure in every of his ministerial posts. A total political waste of space.

He was useless as a Minister and  two Ministries!

You can understand why people want to believe the lies of Farage and Reform.

Sadly they will be even more disappointed.

There is a huge place in our society for a naturally Conservative Party and at the moment that is Labour.

Of all the shyte you read on here, death tops it!

& Reform are not anti immigration. I suspect people are consuming too much bbc output.

Really?


Care to expand on that?

Do you think Starmer and Reeves and Mamood have a bit of the Revolutionary Militant Tendency in them?

Come on Einstein explain your remarks.

Of all the shyte I read on here, you Cider are not the dumbest but you do at times give them a good run for their money!

It's actually absurd that one has to point it out, as clydebank is not ostensibly thick. Wanting, in fact demanding controlled immigration is not anti immigration. The choice is not either open borders, or zero immigration.

I could go anywhere with that, but even now, the Tories don't hate the country, hate tradition, hate British culture and British people. Though I'd say by the end, they had people in it who do. Starmer and his government all loath us. All of his sucking up to and prostration in front of Trump is simply self preservation. Oh how it pains them as well!

You don't think Farage kisses Chump's ring?

Farage has always admired Trump. It's called authenticity.

Does he drink disinfectant?

Unlikely.

Oct 14, 2025 -- 4:27PM, Cider wrote:

I could go anywhere with that, but even now, the Tories don't hate the country, hate tradition, hate British culture and British people. Though I'd say by the end, they had people in it who do. Starmer and his government all loath us. All of his sucking up to and prostration in front of Trump is simply self preservation. Oh how it pains them as well!

Can’t blame him for loathing you Ratman

grimster behave you will be banned again

Farage has always admired Trump. It's called authenticity.

what's so great about admiring Epsteins best friend?
That lost prophets guy got his justice a few days ago, what is the difference between admiring him and admiring epsteins best friend?

what is the difference between admiring him and admiring epsteins best friend?

Rationality

what is the difference between admiring him and admiring epsteins best friend?

Rationality

Go on then, Rationalise admiring epsteins best friend vs not admiring the lost prophet guy.

Epsteins best friend? Are you feeling alright?

Gas lighting the only card you play.

And you wrap it up in faux mirth and bad acting like a cruddy unfunny 70's sitcom.

Gas lighting IS the only card you play.

And you wrap it up in faux mirth and bad acting like a cruddy unfunny 70's sitcom.

I am not the one stating unevidenced things as facts.