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Next Conservative Leader market - Farage in it, wtf?
Next Conservative Leader market - Farage in it, wtf?
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Seemed an obvious centrist candidate.
Do tories have a left wing these days? |
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Just seems a very strong candidate to reach final two. All the extreme right wing lot will be fighting each other for votes while Tugendhat simply gathers centrists. Odds of around 8.0 look very appealing.
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I agree.
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The Blue Rinse are more on the Reformoaner agenda.
They will vote for a nutter. The thing is the Right have now split their vote. Cannot see that being reconciled until Farage is despatched and exposed as the self centred, egotistical charlatan that he is. There will be a lot of smaller groups vying for votes. |
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Kemi Badenoch- You just feel she is out of her depth. Could make last two though but with her background may find it tough to beat any other rival.
Robert Jenrick- If you slammed the door on him, he would slide under it. Untrustworthy, doesn't appeal as leader potential and has that unlawful real estate issue always hanging over him. Fighting for same votes as Badenoch, Patel and Braverman. Tom Tugendhat- As a very likely runner and possibly the only centrist, great chance of making last two. James Cleverly- Spike will struggle for support as he has serious limitations but is happy to get wheeled out on TV when no one else will. Priti Patel- Can't count, can't debate, can't be trusted. Overrated but could go close to making last two if she runs. Suella Braverman- No possible chance. Victoria Atkins- Dark horse who can't be ruled out. Best outsider. Claire Cutinho- Just hasn't enough experience as yet but well thought of by many in the party. Steve Barclay- Seen a lot worse 200/1 shots. |
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Can't believe an outright crook like Jenrick is seriously touted.
Surely they can't be that devoid of talent. |
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https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/09/bafflement-over-tory-mps-admission-she-hacked-harriet-harmans-website
Badenoch another confessed lawbreaker. |
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A mere bagatelle,
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Tom Tughendhat is a weak ,woke ,centrist ,wet ,liberal ...and just what the fake tories are looking for.
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Priti Patel said to be entering the race. Laughable.
Surely this is just for positioning and to stake a claim in the shadow cabinet. |
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Jenrick was useless as a housing minister, I believe. The Tory must be scraping the barrel if he's a serious contender; Badenoch is too combative and comes across arrogant and lacking decorum in politics.
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Jenryk is too mired with sleaze (Ashtongate) to be a serious candidate.
Patel the bully and the horrible Cruella Bravaman are proven breakers of the ministerial code and quite extreme, so they would be useless. Trouble is that the Tories have not learned anything about what happens to parties on the extreme wing of their parties - they do not get elected. |
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Fair comment.
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I'm laying badenoch in the 2.6-2.8 range, seems to low given the likely length of the contest.
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Surely Sunak might be persuaded to stay on for a couple
of years. He's acted as a decent bloke since his election howking |
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Too little too late
Eat out to spread Covid about. Has little idea of the problems of the people |
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I think Ms Badenoch so soon after Sunak is an unlikely successor. I'd be glued to the tv debate between Badenoch, Patel and Braverman. I think they'll kick six bells out of one another. There's no love lost between these 3 candidates; the Tory men are either tarnished or too weak for a fight except perhaps Mr Hunt.
I'd vote for Mr Hunt and Braverman. |
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most likely they'll go for a bland grey caretaker leader for a year or two imho.
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Patel & Braverman have plenty of complaints but zero practical solutions
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Patel, Braverman and the like are only going to make matters worse with serious infighting amongst not only their own party but with Reform too. A recipe for annihilation part two.
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Goid
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Senior Tories have failed to reach agreement about a timetable for their leadership contest, with a big split existing between key figures in the party.
It means no decision will be made on selecting a new leader until at least next week, when the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers will meet again. The former prime minister Rishi Sunak is understood to have made clear that an interim leader would need to be selected before parliament’s recess if the party were to decide on a longer contest. The party board held a five-hour meeting on Thursday where it is understood they were told no firm timetable had been agreed by the 1922 Committee executive. A Conservative party spokesperson said: “The party board met today and had a good discussion about the options for the leadership process presented by the 1922 executive committee. The [committee] will meet again and announce the leadership process next week.” Bob Blackman, the newly elected chair of the committee, said the meeting had set out the parameters for the contest. A proposal had been put forward for candidates to submit their nominations before August, giving them the summer to make their case publicly. MPs would then whittle down the candidates to two early in September and open member-voting with a final hustings at party conference and a leader announced. A faster contest is favoured by those in the party who are concerned about its financial peril and the concern that no donors will return while the party is rudderless. Party conference is also a key time to raise funds for the party. “There is no value in using that time for the old leader or to take chunks out of each other,” said one Tory source. Another source said: “There isn’t a massive difference between the campaigns [on the timing] but there is an element of delusion on the part of some in the party that Sunak will just keep on going.” A number of MPs are said to believe that Sunak’s performance at the king’s speech debate had crystallised the necessity of an interim leader if the contest were to go on beyond conference time. Sunak spoke to defeated Conservative MPs at the Carlton Club later in the evening, going table to table and speaking to each group. He just kept on repeating “I’m sorry”, said a former MP, who was at the club event. One senior Tory source said it was impossible to see how Sunak could continue as leader of the opposition when Starmer would consistently point to his record in government, and given he would have no authority to set direction or take a position on new policy. “He’s been only motivated by the interests of the party and the country,” said one source close to Sunak. A former MP expressed the concerns of others impatient for the process to move ahead. “The longer we allow Labour to go unmarked the more time we give them to do what we did to them in 2010 and set the longer-term narrative. We need to move.” But other sources said the mood among MPs was building towards a longer contest and an interim leader, which would mean debate between the candidates taking place at conference but no voting until mid autumn. Some even favoured a contest lasting until 2025. “We need to take our time to find a candidate, who will be in this for the long haul and has the endurance to do what it takes, not just someone who looks good in a short TV interview,” said one MP. “We’ve got a model right in front of us across the floor. Starmer showed that you can bring a party back from the brink after the Corbyn years. It should be doable for us. There are a lot of fairly slim Labour majorities.” |
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Some interesting analysis, but not that much use for punting as
it's rather neutral outcome. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/whos-left-the-composition-of-the-new-parliamentary-conservative-party/?mc_cid=9b0551c80d&mc_eid=6060b648bc .. |
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the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers ? WAFLOW
Sir Graham Brady, the previous chair, became well known for his visits to Downing Street to tell Tory leaders their time as prime minister was up. He dispatched Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss after they lost the confidence of the backbenchers. Sir Graham stood down as an MP at the last election. The chair is also who Tory MPs write to when they have no confidence in the party's leader; if they receive enough letters, a vote of no confidence is triggered. Because Sir Graham stood back at the last election, the party has not been able to establish how Mr Sunak's replacement will be chosen. |