A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings

The damage has been done. They are mired in financial shenanigans and the bin will be recycled forever.

Tories will be the big threat to Burnham next GE, not reform

Almondbury (Kirklees) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 43.9% (+14.5)
RFM: 27.0% (-10.0)
CON: 13.2% (+4.4)
GRN: 8.7% (-8.0)
LAB: 4.5% (-3.4)
Ind: 2.6% (New)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Vote for the party best placed to stop Reform.

JL Partners
@JLPartnersPolls
·
18h
NEW: Labour moves to a 3-point lead over Reform in our latest voting intention

LAB 28% (+1)
REF 25% (-)
CON 21% (+1)
LDEM 10% (-2)
GRN 9% (-1)
OTH 8% (+1)

8th-11th August | 2,016 GB adults | Changes on 1st-3rd August

Almondbury (Kirklees) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 43.9% (+14.5)
RFM: 27.0% (-10.0)
CON: 13.2% (+4.4)
GRN: 8.7% (-8.0)
LAB: 4.5% (-3.4)
Ind: 2.6% (New)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Vote for the party best placed to stop Reform.

Lib Dems taking a seat from Regorm, I didn't hear about that, guess it was on the same day as the binface-farage clown festival in clacton.


Was this a by election because it was one of the seats Reform won in May and immediately decided they didn't really want the job and resigned?

There were 10 or 20 incidents of reform winning and immediately resigning as they were candidates on paper only and not actually candidates who wanted to improve things on the council.

UK - Next General Election -- Overall Majority

9 Runners            £407,252 Matched

			101.6%		99.4%
No Overall Majority	1.63	1.64	1.65		1.66	1.67	1.68	£192,408
	£7	£48	£26		£2	£73	£306
Labour Majority	5.7	5.8	5.9		6	6.2	6.4	£57,851
	£20	£237	£4		£113	£29	£2
Reform UK Majority	9.4	9.6	9.8		10.5	11	11.5	£100,548
	£3	£136	£2		£10	£95	£20
Conservatives Majority	9	9.2	9.4		9.6	9.8	10	£19,432
	£550	£212	£26		£52	£7	£113
Restore Britain Majority	42	50	55		60	70	75	£20,216
	£106	£1	£2		£9	£5	£2
plus 4 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+4)
REF: 22% (=)
CON: 20% (=)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 9% (-2)

via Trajectory Partnership, 5-12 Aug

(Changes with 16 Jul)

Did you or did you not receive an emergency notification on Friday (14 August), with your smartphone emitting a loud 10 second siren noise? If you do not have a smartphone, please select N/A

I did
78
%
I did not
20
%
N/A: I do not have a smartphone
1
%


Do you think the government were right or wrong to use the emergency notification system to warn people about the risk of wildfires in England and Wales?

They were right to do so
53
%
They were wrong to do so
35
%
Don't know
12
%











% (voters by party) saying government were right to send alert
2024 Lab: 63%
2024 Grn: 58%
2024 LD: 54%
2024 Con: 52%
2024 Ref: 32%

Yougov

YouGov
@YouGov
·
30m
Andy Burnham's latest net favourability rating of +13 (13-14 August 2026) is the highest recorded by our tracker for a prime minister since the surge in Boris Johnson's popularity in the initial weeks of the Coronavirus pandemic

I'm not a big fan of Andy but he is way more of a people person than that fraud farage.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-2)
CON: 19% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 16-17 Aug.
Changes w/ 9-10 Aug.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-2)
CON: 19% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 16-17 Aug.
Changes w/ 9-10 Aug.

That's the first time I've seen RFM at the top of the polls for many months.

Do you think the uplift is in response to their Monday press conference where they promised to increase immigration
by removing Labours increased barriers to businesses importing and employing foreign workers.


It was a surprise to me as I thought RFMers wanted to reduce immigration.

I think it's just drag on the policies for by election and statistical error over a series of polls.

3% error on each of these polls, and it's worrying if they start getting too close to
each other, as they should show varience within the limits, with some outside the margin too...

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (-1)
LAB: 23% (+1)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 14% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 19 Aug.
Changes w/ 12 Aug.

RFM 26% (=)
LAB 26% (+1)
CON 18% (-1)
LD 10% (-1)
GRN 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (=)
RB 2% (=)
PC 1% (-1)
OTH 4% (=)

F/w 18 August 2026. Changes vs 13/08/2026

Survation.

Should  Harry and Megan move back to uk..

They should: 21%
They should not: 33%

Don't know: 45%

Yougov 20th Aug.

Should  Harry and Megan move back to uk..

They should: 21%
They should not: 33%

Don't know: 45%

Yougov 20th Aug.

like it makes a broken twiglet of difference to anyone other than the media circus are going to be shoving this baby food down everyones throat intensively for weeks, months, years.

Just a question to ask folk during their survey.

Helps survey company more than us, but I found it interesting enough to record.

Thread is all a pinch of salt.

apologies, no offence intended, I'll just have to get used to the increased spoon feeding of hello magazine type baby food gloop to the masses as it fills all the top spots in the news and media.

Non taken, it's a question they know, or suspect, forms a link to other stuff, so a new way to test accuracy.

Maybe they'll follow up in a couple of months to
see if the bombardment sways opinion.

Penistone East (Barnsley) Council By-Election Result:

LAB: 51.6% (+14.4)
RFM: 23.8% (-6.7)
CON: 11.6% (-7.6)
RES: 6.5% (New)
Ind: 2.6% (New)
LDM: 2.1% (-3.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-5.6)
Ind: 0.2% (New)

Labour GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

St Neots Eynesbury (Huntingdonshire) Council By-Election Result:

LDM: 47.9% (+29.8)
RFM: 30.3% (+3.1)
CON: 6.7% (-3.8)
GRN: 5.5% (-12.5)
LAB: 4.9% (New)
Ind: 4.8% (New)

No Ind (-26.2) as previous.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Vote for the party best placed to stop Reform.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 29% (+2)
RFM: 27% (=)
CON: 21% (+2)
LDM: 8% (=)
GRN: 8% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 24-27 Aug.
Changes w/ 14-17 Aug.

Delta poll time machine,lol

Should read


Via @DeltapollUK, 14-17 Aug.
Changes w/ 24-27 Jul.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (+1)
RFM: 27% (=)
CON: 20% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
LDM: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 21-24 Aug.
Changes w/ 14-17 Aug.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (-1)
LAB: 22% (=)
CON: 20% (+1)
GRN: 13% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
RES: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 23-24 Aug.
Changes w/ 16-17 Aug.

Aug 25, 2026 -- 1:26PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

Westminster Voting Intention:LAB: 30% (+1)RFM: 27% (=)CON: 20% (-1)GRN: 8% (=)LDM: 8% (=)SNP: 3% (+1)Via @DeltapollUK, 21-24 Aug.Changes w/ 14-17 Aug.

Highest Labour percentage in any poll since December 2024.

YHTL

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (+1)
RFM: 27% (=)
CON: 20% (-1)
GRN: 8% (=)
LDM: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 21-24 Aug.
Changes w/ 14-17 Aug.

YHTL

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (-1)
LAB: 22% (=)
CON: 20% (+1)
GRN: 13% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
RES: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 23-24 Aug.
Changes w/ 16-17 Aug.

Huge discrepency between polsters for Lab and Rfm !?

One of them is way out to the point of being useless.

Different methods. Delta always have Greens and LibDems much lower than everyone else.

To me, it looks as though Reform have stopped the rot for now and have bottomed out around the 23/24 mark. Labour received a Burnham bounce and have also settled around that 23/24 mark. The tories are steady but appear stuck around 20%.

As I posted last week it's good to see outliers now and again, else I fear they are
overly fixed.

Labour/Green-lib dem seems the varience here and that can be sort of explained(perhaps) by the return to Labour of voters from those parties being more regional, or softer... so maybe different across different polling organisations.

Whereas the earlier return from refuk is more solid, but not increasing.

Plenty of time for them to iron that out...

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (=)
RFM: 23% (-2)
CON: 22% (=)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 9% (=)
RES: 4% (New)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@Moreincommon_
, 21-23 Aug.
Changes w/ 14-17 Aug.

Another poll showing Reform fading to around the 23% mark. Note Restore are prompted in this poll but they aren't in the Delta poll.

Prompting is a significant factor when comparing polls...

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 37% (-1)
RFM: 18% (+2)
LAB: 17% (-2)
CON: 11% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 5 % (+3)

Regional:
SNP: 31% (+4)
RFM: 18% (+1)
LAB: 17% (+1)
CON: 12% (=)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-5)

Via
@Survation
, 13-24 Aug.
Changes w/ 2026 Election.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (+1)
RFM: 24% (-2)
CON: 19% (+1)
GRN: 10% (=)
LDM: 9% (-1)
RES: 3% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @Survation, 26-28 Aug.
Changes w/ 18 Aug.

LAB: 26% (-1)
CON: 23% (+1)
RFM: 22% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 9% (=)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 28-31 Aug.
Changes w/ 21-23 Aug.

LAB: 23% (+1)
RFM: 23% (=)
CON: 20% (=)
GRN: 13% (=)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
RES: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 30-31 Aug.
Changes w/ 23-24 Aug.

LAB: 26% (+4)
RFM: 21% (-4)
CON: 20% (=)
GRN: 14% (+1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 2 Sep.
Changes w/ 26 Aug.

Who would make the better PM?

Burnham 52% vs Farage 22%
Burnham 50% vs Polanski 8%
Burnham 44% vs Davey 9%
Burnham 42% vs Badenoch 26%

Badenoch 45% vs Farage 16%
Badenoch 39% vs Polanski 20%
Badenoch 33% vs Davey 24%

Davey 38% vs Farage 24%
Davey 28% vs Polanski 14%

Polanski 31% vs Farage 27%

yougov.com

Ipsos in the UK
@Ipsos_in_the_UK
·
13h
August leaderboard 

Burnham Bounce: 40% are favourable towards Andy Burnham (+8 from July).

Brits are more than twice as likely to be unfavourable towards Farage (54%) as favourable (26%).

19% favourable towards Green Party leader Zack Polanski – lower than Brits who say they are favourable towards the Green Party generally (25%).

(Fieldwork August 21-27)

Twice as many folks happy to vote in order to stop Reform than support them.

Moderate Tories, centre and the left will make sure that little c unt farage doesn't win

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 26% (+3)
RFM: 25% (-1)
CON: 20% (-3)
LDM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 11% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @tweetfreshwater, 4-6 Sep.
Changes w/ 7-10 Aug.

Ipsos Polling: % of voters who think that party leader is in touch with ordinary people.

Burnham: 52%
Farage: 32%
Davey: 31%
Polanski: 24%
Badenoch: 22%

Ipsos Polling
Is the following political party leaders honest?
Burnham: 41%
Badenoch: 30%
Farage: 20%
Davey: 36%
Polanski: 23%

Best PM Poll - Lord Ashcroft Polling
Burnham - 44%
Badenoch - 17%
Farage - 15%
Don't know - 24%


Also 52/21 keep triple lock over scrap it.

52% of Britons approve of the government's decision to ban the import of goods from contested Israeli settlements in the West Bank

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 17%

By 2024 vote
Grn: +79 net support
Lab: +62
LD: +58
Con: +4
Ref: -23

Yougov

There are clearly some very strange REFUK voters out there.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+1)
RFM: 23% (-1)
CON: 21% (+2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 8% (-2)
SNP: 2% (=)
RES: 2% (-1)

Via
@Survation
, 9-10 Sep.
Changes w/ 26-28 Aug.

REFUK look busted. They are struggling to maintain second place now.

Burnage (Manchester) Council By-Election Result:

LAB: 42.1% (+12.8)
GRN: 32.0% (-13.8)
WPB: 14.4% (+12.1)
RFM: 9.7% (+7.2)
LDM: 1.0% (-2.1)
CON: 0.8% (-1.3)

No Ind (-0.5) as previous.

Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2026.
1:56 AM · Sep 11, 2026
·
241.6K
Views
Solid result for Labour, abysmal for REFUK.

Refuk had some decent results.

Seem to be able to consolidate in areas they
are already strong, but strugglin in otter areas.

69% of Britons now have an unfavourable opinion of Nigel Farage (9-10 Sep 2026), the highest recorded by our tracker in the decade it has run

Favourable: 24% (+1 from 13-14 Aug)
Unfavourable: 69% (+2)
Net: -45 (-1)

While Britons still tend to see Andy Burnham favourably, the proportion seeing him unfavourably has risen six points over the last month

Favourable: 46% (no change from 13-14 Aug)
Unfavourable: 39% (+6)
Net: +7 (-6)

Kemi Badenoch favourability tracker (9-10 Sep 2026)

Favourable: 32% (+1 from 13-14 Aug)
Unfavourable: 47% (=)
Net: -15 (+1)

Zack Polanski favourability tracker (9-10 Sep 2026)

Favourable: 21% (+2 from 13-14 Aug)
Unfavourable: 50% (+2)
Net: -29 (=)

You gov 9/10 sept (bit out of date already!!!)

Labour: 23% (no change from 6-7 Sep)
Reform UK: 23% (=)
Conservatives: 20% (=)
Lib Dems: 13% (+2)
Greens: 11% (-1)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)

Yougov 13/14 sept

most Britons are opposed to parties receiving taxpayer money

Support: 17%
Oppose: 55%

Yougov

Do you think there should or should not be a limit on the amount of money individuals and entities can donate to a political party?
Published on 14 September 2026
Survey conducted on 14 September 2026 on 5456 GB adults
By:

All adults
Should
60
%
Should not
22
%
Don’t know
18
%
Yougov

Welsh Westminster Voting Intention:

PLC: 27% (-3)
RFM: 19% (-7)
LAB: 18% (+10)
CON: 16% (+4)
GRN: 8% (-5)
LDM: 5% (-1)

Via
@YouGov
, 7-13 Sep.
Changes w/ 27 Apr - 4 May.

Reform sinking in Wales.

That's before the resignation, I assume

LAB: 24.9% (+0.5%)
REF: 22.8% (-0.3%)
CON: 22.2% (+0.4%)
LDM: 10.3% (-1.8%)
GRN: 8.8% (-0.4%)
RES: 5.6% (-0.3%)
SNP: 2.3% (+0.2%)
Another party/Independent Candidate: 2.1% (+1.5%)
PC: 1.1% (+0.2%)

(+/-) Change from last More in Common Poll

11/15 sept (2,038)

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 25% (-1)
RFM: 23% (=)
CON: 18% (=)
GRN: 12% (=)
LDM: 11% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 16 Sep.
Changes w/ 9 Sep.

YouGov
@YouGov
·
3h
YouGov's September 2026 MRP projects that Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow

Labour: 241 (-170 from 2024)
Conservatives: 130 (+9)
Reform UK: 123 (+118)
Lib Dems: 71 (-1)
SNP: 40 (+31)
Plaid Cymru: 15 (+11)
Greens: 9 (+5)
Others: 3 (-3)

Can Reform hold on to third place?

When you look at the interaction of voters in Scotland as an anti SNP vote it becomes quite complex trying to project tight constituencies, and they got that wrong, even in exit polls.. 2017/2019.

I think they'll find some unexpected results
all over UK at next election as tactical voting websites kick in to stop one side or the other.

Lord Ashcroft did some polling and got results that were very surprising...

I wouldn't want a strong position this far
out,... Could be truly surprising

NEW: Survation MRP for @38degrees as seen in the @guardian today

Labour: 272
Reform: 153
Conservative: 85
Lib Dem: 69
SNP: 40
Plaid Cymru: 8
Green: 3
Other: 1





Tactical voting:

40% of voters are currently backing a party which isn't one of the top 2 contenders in their seat. Only 3.5% are currently voting tactically.

Another 18% say they would switch to one of the two front-runners in a two-horse race, and are not doing so yet.


The landscape is very fragmented

Reform leads in 150 seats but our model gives them a 90%+ chance to win in only 45 of them. Labour is at 90%+ in 179 of its 273.

In 147 constituencies no party has better than a 70% chance of winning.

The Lib Dems lead in 70 seats and are near-certain in 57 of them, the safest of any party.

There are 356 seats where Reform have less than a 10% chance of winning, and 80 more where they have a 10-30% chance

Survation conducted an online poll of 8,124 adults in the UK on behalf of @38degrees between 20 August and 4 September 2026

Lord Ashcroft did some polling and got results that were very surprising...

Details?


RFM have been quite volatile recently, 10 days ago the were 3.9, into 3.05 over 8 days, then out to 3.6 today

UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £3,589,391 Matched

			97.6%		94.9%
Labour	2.62	2.64	2.68		2.76	2.78	2.8	£966,943
	£72	£1,001	£26		£21	£23	£45
Reform UK	3.5	3.55	3.6		3.65	3.7	3.75	£1,732,121
	£40	£72	£11		£32	£187	£10
Conservatives	4.2	4.3	4.4		4.5	4.6	4.7	£355,341
	£1,002	£58	£33		£45	£152	£25
Restore Britain	15.5	16	16.5		17	17.5	18	£232,485
	£10	£5	£10		£13	£6	£46
Green Party	44	46	50		55	60	65	£236,755
	£8	£8	£183		£40	£57	£10
Liberal Democrats	65	70	75		85	90	95	£45,726
	£259	£30	£232		£3	£364	£10
Your Party	450	470	500		620	680	690	£8,754
	£4	£1	£6		£3	£7	£19
Workers Party of Britain	900	910	1000		-	-	-	£2,400
	£2	£2	£16
Advance UK	770	810	1000		-	-	-	£8,865
	£2	£2	£5

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2026/09/can-the-right-unite-the-question-revisited/

..

I think you need to look at betfair meerkat as being manipulated.

Try to work out where it would be if it were clean.

Majority of football fans against drinking alcohol in stands — new poll
YouGov poll finds 64 per cent oppose Andy Burnham's proposal.

New Bradwell (Milton Keynes) Council By-Election Result:

LAB: 54.2% (+19.7)
RFM: 23.4% (-3.1)
CON: 8.5% (-2.6)
GRN: 9.3% (-12.5)
LDM: 4.6% (-1.5)

Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2026.

Big win for Labour, the rest nowhere.

Quite a few council by elections yesterday..

A real mixed bag,... If anything tories happiest, greens worst off. But further polarisation is order of the day.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 24% (+3)
REF: 22% (-5)
CON: 21% (+4)
LDM: 12% (-3)
GRN: 12% (+1)
RES: 3%

Seat Forecast (MRP):

LAB: 241 (+97)
REF: 123 (-188)
CON: 130 (+85)
LDM: 71 (-7)
SNP: 40 (+3)
PLC: 15 (+9)
GRN: 9 (+2)

via
@YouGov
, 23 Aug-18 Sep

(Changes with Sep 25)

Hamworthy East By-Election:

Peter Cooper (LAB): 41.9% (+8.0)
John Sheldon (RFM): 39.9% (-13.9)
Paul Whitlock (PP): 11.9% (-0.3)
Yasmin Marie Clewes (GRN): 3.3% (-0.7)
Jude Chapman (LDM): 2.6% (-4.0)
Louise Christine Fielden (IND): 0.5%

Labour GAIN from Reform

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (+4)
LAB: 24% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 11% (-3)
RES: 3% (-1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via @YouGov, 27-28 Sep.
Changes w/ 20-21 Sep.

New triple lock polling today finds that 58% of Britons think the triple lock should be maintained (fieldwork ~11am to 4pm today)

Definitely/probably should be maintained: 58%
Definitely/probably should not be maintained: 20%

% saying maintain by age
18-24: 35% (net +9)
25-49: 45% (net +23)
50-64: 66%
65+: 82%

Yougov

Is the state pension today more generous than 40 years ago?
-More generous: 23%
-About same: 14%
-Less generous: 29%

Compared to today, how generous will the state pension be when those currently in their 20s/30s retire?
-More generous: 6%
-About same: 9%
-Less generous: 63%

Yougov today

SNAP POLL / By 48% to 28%, Britons support Andy Burnham's proposal to change the triple lock in order to help fund part of a national care service

You gov.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (+1)
CON: 22% (-1)
RFM: 21% (-1)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 9% (+1)
RES: 6% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 25-29 Sep.
Changes w/ 18-21 Sep.

Reform hanging on to third place.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (+3)
RFM: 23% (=)
CON: 17% (-2)
GRN: 12% (-1)
LDM: 9% (-3)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 30 Sep.
Changes w/ 23 Sep.

LAB 30% (+2)
REF 25% (+1)
CON 17% (n/c)
GRN 11% (+1)
LD 9% (-1)

Opinium, westminster

30 sept to 2 Oct fieldwork.

(4-5 October 2026) yougov

Labour: 27% (+3 from 27-28 Sep)
Reform UK: 22% (-3)
Conservatives: 20% (+1)
Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
Greens: 11% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)

LAB 30% (+1)
RFM 24% (+1)
CON 19% (=)
LD 9% (=)
GRN 8% (-1)
SNP 2% (-1)
RES 2% (-1)
PC 2% (+1)
OTH 3% (-1)

F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026

Survation

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 25% (-2)
RFM: 23% (=)
CON: 20% (+3)
GRN: 11% (-1)
LDM: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 7 Oct.
Changes w/ 30 Sep.

Town (Newcastle-under-Lyme) Council By-Election Result:

LAB: 46.2% (+18.0)
RFM: 26.7% (-0.4)
GRN: 12.3% (-9.2)
CON: 11.8% (-4.3)
LDM: 2.9% (-4.0)

Labour GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2026.

Reform look busted. They can't win anything with these type of figures.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 29% (-1)
RFM: 23% (-2)
CON: 20% (+3)
GRN: 9% (-2)
LDM: 9% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 7-9 Oct.
Changes w/ 30 Sep - 2 Oct.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 24% (-3)
CON: 23% (+3)
RFM: 21% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 11% (=)

Via @YouGov, 11-12 Oct.
Changes w/ 4-5 Oct.

Tory party conference bounce?

Maybe what saw them take 3rd place in recent by election too.

Alternative the Russian bots having a quiet spell.

Zelensky 1 Farage 0

Rodborough (Stroud) Council By-Election Result:

LAB: 47.0% (+13.2)
GRN: 31.7% (+1.5)
RFM: 12.9% (New)
CON: 6.9% (-3.9)
LDM: 1.5% (New)

No Ind (-25.2) as previous.

Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2024.

12.9% for Refuk must be a new low?

Reform have drifted out from 3.25 and conservatives in from 4.9 over the last few days.

Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £3,715,015 Matched

			96.3%		94.5%
Labour	2.74	2.76	2.78		2.8	2.82	2.84	£1,041,139
	£963	£800	£140		£8	£52	£2
Reform UK	3.65	3.7	3.75		3.85	3.9	3.95	£1,755,016
	£322	£60	£64		£11	£228	£73
Conservatives	3.85	3.9	3.95		4	4.1	4.2	£378,008
	£231	£65	£26		£44	£199	£750
Restore Britain	17	17.5	18		18.5	19	19.5	£236,658
	£6	£27	£97		£10	£10	£13
Green Party	65	70	75		80	85	90	£237,221
	£12	£30	£32		£5	£12	£10
Liberal Democrats	85	90	95		100	110	990	£46,891
	£10	£34	£2		£2	£382	£2
plus 3 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (-1)
CON: 24% (+3)
RFM: 21% (-3)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
RES: 5% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@Moreincommon_
, 9-12 Oct.
Changes w/ 3-5 Oct.

Tories definitely making progress at Refuks expense.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 25% (=)
RFM: 22% (-1)
CON: 22% (+2)
GRN: 11% (=)
LDM: 10% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 14 Oct.
Changes w/ 7 Oct.

Those ex tory Refukers are coming back home.