A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings

If every Westminster seat in the country replicated exactly current polls, that would be the case. However, it's not the case. There is no possible chance whatsoever that Reform will come close to 300 seats.

Find Out Now
@FindoutnowUK
·
Mar 28
Find Out Now voting intention
Reform UK: 24% (-1)
Greens: 20% (+1)
Conservatives: 18% (+1)
Labour: 16% (-)
Lib Dems: 12% (+1)

Implied turnout: 54%

Changes from 18th March
[Find Out Now, 26-27th March, N=3,092]

Reform lead continues to be eroded with multiple pollsters.

https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/2037860410859106341/photo/1

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 23% (=)
CON: 19% (+2)
GRN: 19% (+1)
LAB: 18% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, 29-30 Mar.
Changes w/ 22-23 Mar.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 34% (-1)
LAB: 19% (+2)
RFM: 15% (-4)
CON: 11% (+1)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 8% (=)

Regional:
SNP: 30% (=)
LAB: 17% (=)
RFM: 15% (-4)
GRN: 12% (+1)
CON: 10% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+3)

Via @NorstatUKPolls, 30 Mar - 1 Apr.
Changes w/ 10-13 Feb.



Election maps Seat Model:

SNP: 59 (-5)
LAB: 21 (-1)
RFM: 16 (+16)
LDM: 12 (+8)
GRN: 11 (+3)
CON: 10 (-21)

Changes w/ 2021.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 39% (+3)
LAB: 15% (-5)
RFM: 15% (-1)
CON: 11% (+2)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 7% (=)

List:
SNP: 29% (+3)
GRN: 16% (=)
RFM: 16% (+2)
LAB: 15% (-4)
CON: 13% (+2)
LDM: 9% (-1)

VIa @IpsosScotland, 26-31 Mar.
Changes w/ 19-25 Feb.

Election maps Seat Model:

SNP: 64 (-1)
LAB: 16 (-6)
RFM: 16 (+16)
GRN: 15 (+7)
CON: 12 (-19)
LDM: 7 (+3)

Looks as though it's going to be a close call whether the SNP achieve an overall majority.

The Reform vote is consistent with multiple polling organisations, consistently down that is.

Cliftonville (Kent) Council By-Election Result:

GRN: 38.8% (+26.7)
RFK: 33.1% (-7.0)
CON: 15.2% (-4.5)
LAB: 10.4% (-11.6)
Ind: 1.3% (New)
LDM: 1.2% (-1.9)

No Ind (-3.0) as previous.

Green GAIN from Ref UK.
Changes w/ 2025.

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP are on course for a small majority

SNP: 67 (+3 from 2021)
Ref: 20 (+20)
Lab: 15 (-7)
Grn: 11 (+3)
LD: 9 (+5)
Con: 7 (-24)

While our MRP model of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election projects a range of outcomes, the SNP win an overall majority of seats in 89% of our simulations, suggesting it is highly likely John Swinney will be returned as first minister

yougov

Scottish Parliament Election -- Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

6 Runners            £99,470 Matched

			100.6%		98.9%
SNP	-	1.01	1.02		1.03	1.04	1.06	£98,593
		£100,749	£27,138		£11,897	£5,092	£22
Reform UK	36	50	55		65	70	85	£601
	£40	£123	£6		£6	£5	£11
Labour	260	300	400		720	1000	-	£151
	£11	£8	£3		£2	£1
Green	330	340	450		860	-	-	£101
	£3	£2	£2		£1
Conservative	600	660	700		-	-	-	£15
	£6	£5	£3
Liberal Democrats	750	800	1000		-	-	-	£9
	£3	£2	£16

Cramlington South West (Northumberland) Council By-Election Result:

CON: 34.2% (+9.0)
RFM: 26.1% (-13.3)
LAB: 23.0% (-5.8)
GRN: 14.3% (New)
Ind: 1.6% (New)
LDM: 0.9% (New)

No SDP (-6.6) as previous.

Conservative GAIN from Reform UK.
Changes w/ 2025.

Narborough & Whetstone (Leicestershire) Council By-Election Result:

RFM: 33.0% (-9.3)
CON: 29.6% (+5.1)
GRN: 28.2% (+13.4)
LDM: 4.3% (-3.6)
LAB: 4.0% (-4.8)
ADV: 0.9% (New)

No Ind (-1.7) as previous.

Reform UK HOLD.
Changes w/ 2025.

More signs that Reform vote is constantly being eroded.

Notable that those two council by elections both show a (relatively) large swing from Reform back to Conservative.

And yet the market is still priced as though the May 7th elections are a shoe in for Reform.

UK - Local Elections -- 2026 UK Local Elections: Winning Party

5 Runners            £133,310 Matched

			104.4%		95.2%
Reform	1.09	1.1	1.12		1.17	1.18	1.19	£117,313
	£170	£284	£106		£13	£71	£34
Green	10	10.5	11		15.5	16	16.5	£7,825
	£9	£13	£5		£5	£7	£3
Labour	26	30	32		48	60	65	£5,492
	£9	£20	£3		£3	£2	£1
Conservative	34	36	40		100	120	150	£1,472
	£2	£2	£2		£4	£2	£3
Liberal Democrats	200	210	230		510	530	570	£1,207
	£15	£1	£1		£2	£2	£3

Lib dems favs to come 2nd

Some prices have to be wrong.

There is definitely a strong case for laying Reform. Their national vote is steadily and consistently falling. There are signs of a tory, somewhat limited revival and that is going to cost Reform seats. There could easily be some level of tactical voting to keep Reform out, as has happened in recent by elections. They have no history in a huge chunk of their target seats. So at 1.12, the downside in laying them is minimal.

Almost impossible to price up

Good luck to those punting

Should Keir Starmer resign?

Should: 43% (-1 from 3 Mar)
Should not: 33% (+2)

You gov, 17 april

Bizarre,

53% of Britons think Keir Starmer has not been honest about how the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the US was made - just 16% think he has

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-3)
LAB: 19% (-2)
CON: 19% (+2)
GRN: 17% (=)
LDM: 14% (+5)
RES: 3% (New)
SNP: 2% (-2)

Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 9-15 Apr.
Changes w/ 5-11 Mar.

Reform down again, this time with Ipsos.

Opinion Research Poll 15th April

Reform UK leads on 26% (-1), followed by Labour on 22% (+1). The Conservatives remain on 17%, with the Greens on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 11% (-1).

Despite Reform’s lead, Nigel Farage’s personal ratings remain negative (27% approve, 47% disapprove, net -21), and have declined slightly since March.

Keir Starmer’s ratings are also weak, with 20% approval and 58% disapproval (net -39). Kemi Badenoch continues to have comparatively stronger ratings than other leaders, though still negative overall (26% approve, 37% disapprove, net -11).

Ed Davey (-5) and Zack Polanski (-11) both record less negative scores, though with lower levels of public recognition.

I think Andy Burnham is one of a very few politicians
to have national positive ratings.

Expect a widespread attack if he stands for parliament.

Year Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader


Matched: £663,614



back

lay



2026

1.44

1.56


2027

5.2

7.4


2028

14

17.5


2029 or later

9.8

13.5

UK - Party Leaders -- Year Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader

4 Runners            £665,116 Matched

			102.6%		95.6%
2026	1.44	1.48	1.51		1.54	1.55	1.58	£588,866
	£11	£10	£27		£2	£90	£514
2027	4.5	4.6	5.2		5.8	5.9	6	£21,275
	£38	£4	£4		£3	£1	£50
2028	12.5	13.5	14		17.5	18.5	19	£12,826
	£2	£12	£7		£32	£4	£1
2029 or later	9.4	9.8	10		13	13.5	14	£42,148
	£6	£6	£1		£10	£1	£9

UK - Party Leaders -- Month Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader

4 Runners            £51,931 Matched

			104.6%		94%
April-June 2026	4.9	5	5.3		7.2	8.6	9	£10,554
	£55	£7	£2		£1	£3	£3
July-September 2026	2.38	2.6	2.62		2.96	3	3.05	£8,279
	£5	£74	£18		£1	£40	£1
October-December  2026	5.4	6.6	7.4		8	8.2	9	£1,697
	£5	£56	£17		£1	£1	£2
2027 or later	2.86	2.92	2.94		2.96	3.25	3.3	£31,401
	£97	£5	£81		£41	£8	£18

UK - Party Leaders -- Year Kemi Badenoch replaced as Conservative leader

4 Runners            £26,316 Matched

			103.5%		94%
2026	5.2	6.2	6.4		7.8	8	8.4	£20,162
	£8	£1	£2		£2	£1	£1
2027	4.1	4.3	4.4		4.6	4.7	5.3	£2,249
	£5	£25	£5		£1	£4	£3
2028	5.5	5.6	5.7		6.4	7.2	7.6	£1,329
	£75	£20	£25		£4	£2	£20
2029 or later	2	2.02	2.1		2.28	2.3	2.48	£2,576
	£3	£17	£4		£9	£3	£6

Not much changed by his statement.

Onto the locals,...

UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £2,137,400 Matched

			100.2%		98.3%
Reform UK	2.46	2.48	2.5		2.52	2.54	2.56	£1,170,136
	£9	£317	£74		£1	£36	£77
Labour	3.8	3.85	3.9		3.95	4	4.1	£441,052
	£113	£140	£111		£24	£50	£64
Green Party	8.6	8.8	9		9.2	9.4	9.6	£192,568
	£57	£15	£23		£45	£75	£25
Conservatives	7	7.2	7.4		7.6	7.8	8	£159,272
	£208	£25	£32		£47	£86	£59
Restore Britain	12.5	13	13.5		14	14.5	15	£132,633
	£757	£453	£76		£101	£7	£122
Liberal Democrats	48	50	55		65	70	75	£25,768
	£27	£89	£48		£10	£4	£9
Your Party	210	220	230		300	330	370	£6,661
	£1	£21	£23		£12	£1	£2
Workers Party of Britain	560	720	730		970	990	1000	£1,297
	£1	£1	£1		£1	£3	£40
Advance UK	670	700	720		880	890	900	£8,013
	£1	£1	£1		£24	£7	£8

UK - Local Elections -- 2026 UK Local Elections: Winning Party

5 Runners            £137,265 Matched

			104.1%		97.4%
Reform	1.09	1.1	1.11		1.14	1.15	1.16	£120,832
	£147	£269	£1,043		£13	£77	£116
Green	12	12.5	13		16.5	17.5	19.5	£7,921
	£56	£2	£10		£3	£2	£3
Labour	25	30	32		50	55	70	£5,697
	£2	£10	£5		£3	£3	£2
Conservative	21	25	36		75	85	90	£1,598
	£2	£11	£9		£3	£2	£3
Liberal Democrats	200	220	240		410	420	520	£1,218
	£13	£1	£2		£3	£2	£2

UK - Local Elections -- 2026 UK Local Elections: 2nd place

5 Runners            £2,472 Matched

			114.4%		88.9%
Green	1.77	1.78	1.79		1.98	2	2.18	£1,394
	£100	£8	£3		£6	£6	£48
Liberal Democrats	2.88	3.25	3.35		5.3	5.5	5.6	£603
	£6	£4	£6		£2	£3	£1
Labour	7	7.2	7.6		10	10.5	11	£233
	£34	£4	£3		£4	£1	£7
Conservative	10	13.5	14		26	27	28	£132
	£2	£4	£4		£2	£2	£2
Reform	10.5	11	12		17.5	18	1000	£110
	£1	£5	£3		£3	£33	£2

Plaid Cymru on the drift over the last few days out from 1.18-1.19

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £32,995 Matched

			102%		98.8%
Plaid Cymru	1.23	1.24	1.26		1.28	1.29	1.38	£20,060
	£563	£100	£183		£11	£199	£3
Reform UK	4.5	4.6	4.7		5	5.1	5.2	£12,451
	£2	£30	£15		£50	£5	£25
Labour	40	80	100		140	180	230	£436
	£5	£1	£9		£5	£3	£1
Conservative	540	600	1000		-	-	-	£5
	£2	£2	£2
Liberal	320	520	580		-	-	-	£15
	£1	£1	£4
Green	100	520	1000		-	-	-	£27
	£1	£2	£2

Not much Welsh polling.

There was one today less favourable to plaid but it was field work Jan to april
so I didn't bother.

Maybe that's influenced it.

I started backing Plaid as the results were read out in the Caerphilly by-election back in October.


In the current zeitgeist it doesn't make sense that an English Nationalist party would beat a Welsh Nationalist party in a PR based Welsh election.

Fill your boots.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 19-20 April 2026

Reform UK: 27% (+3 from 12-13 April)
Greens: 17% (-1)
Conservatives: 17% (-2)
Labour: 16% (-1)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 0% (=)

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 29% (-4)
RFM: 29% (+2)
LAB: 13% (=)
GRN: 10% (-2)
CON: 8% (+1)
LDM: 6% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 6-15 Apr.
Changes w/ 9-18 Mar.

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 29% (-4)
RFM: 29% (+2)
LAB: 13% (=)
GRN: 10% (-2)
CON: 8% (+1)
LDM: 6% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 6-15 Apr.
Changes w/ 9-18 Mar.

That's pushed the market about.

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £34,125 Matched

			103.2%		92.7%
Plaid Cymru	1.25	1.29	1.38		1.5	1.51	1.53	£20,652
	£100	£126	£68		£100	£2	£75
Reform UK	3.25	3.3	3.4		3.9	4	4.4	£12,975
	£195	£1	£2		£5	£31	£2
Labour	80	100	110		230	430	760	£450
	£1	£9	£1		£2	£1	£2
Conservative	540	600	1000		-	-	-	£5
	£2	£2	£2
Liberal	310	350	580		-	-	-	£15
	£1	£1	£4
Green	100	520	1000		-	-	-	£27
	£1	£2	£2

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmers-labour-course-historic-37052755

Article on London polling for may elections ^^^

Includes

Across the capital as a whole, YouGov's survey shows Labour on 26% of the vote - down 16% compared to the last borough elections in 2022 - and the Greens on 22%. It found the Tories on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 15% and Reform UK on 14%.

You gov

The model, which uses data from more than 4,500 adults in London in fieldwork from 27 March to 21 April, projects vote shares for each of the parties in all 32 London boroughs. With so many close races, we are not projecting seat wins and losses, as per previous YouGov council election models, but are instead focussing on support for the parties. Owing to the first past the post voting system, this does not guarantee a party will win outright control of a borough, or even the most seats, as happened in Bexley at the 2002 elections and Havering in 2022.

Across the central vote share projections, there are no fewer than 10 boroughs where the second-placed party is within two percentage points of the largest party, an additional six where the margin is less than five percentage points, and a further nine where the margin is less than 10. This reflects wider patterns of fragmentation and increasing multi-party politics across the country.

In our model’s median projections, Labour win the highest vote share on 15 councils, down from 21 at the 2022 local elections, while there are breakthroughs for the Greens and Reform UK, who lead (even if marginally so, in some cases) on four and three councils respectively, having never previously topped the poll on any council in London.

The Conservatives remain ahead on five councils, relative to six at the last election, while the Lib Dems are set to win the most votes on four councils in our model’s central estimates.

Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire party is forecast to, once again, come first in Tower Hamlets, having become the first party other than the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems to win a London borough outright at the 2022 elections. We also expect the Havering Residents Association to again do well in their patch, but to come under a strong challenge from Reform UK.

You gov

in many councils the margins projected by our model’s median projection are slim, with half (16 of 32) seeing five points or less between first and second place, and in some cases third.

The largest group here is councils where Labour and the Greens are both within five points of each other – Brent, Ealing, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham and Waltham Forest – with the Conservatives providing the third participant for three-way contests in Croydon, Enfield and Redbridge.

In Merton, it’s the Lib Dems who are neck-and-neck with Labour, with just a point between the two parties on our central projection, while the Tories are projected to ‘flip’ largest party status in Barnet by a margin of just over five points.

While London has not typically been the happiest hunting ground for Reform UK or its predecessors, our model’s median estimates put them more than five points ahead in Havering, with smaller leads in both Bromley, and Barking and Dagenham. The party is also within five points of beating the Tories in Bexley.

Winning in Barking and Dagenham would be a particular bag for Nigel Farage’s party, as it is the only London borough to have remained under Labour majority control since it was created in the 1960s. Newham, where it’s the Greens and the Newham Independents Party who threaten Labour, has also been run by Keir Starmer’s party since its creation, though not always with a majority.

Overall, across all our simulations, the Greens could come first in as many as eight councils, with Reform UK winning the most votes in five councils on our model’s upper-most bounds, though both parties could fall as low as one each if our model’s respective lower bounds were borne out.

For Labour, our model puts the party in first place on seven councils in its lower-most estimate, while the higher-most estimate shows them topping the poll in 19 boroughs.

You gov

Not all our model’s projections are so close run, with the Lib Dems projected to retain their vote lead in their three south west London councils by double-digit margins, while the Conservatives are forecast to win more than twice as many votes as any other party in Harrow.

Labour’s safest councils on our model’s median projects are Camden, and Hammersmith and Fulham, where the party has estimated leads of 10-11 points.

59% of Britons support allowing police to use live facial recognition technology in public spaces, as the High Court rules that the policy does not breach people's human rights

Support: 59% (+2 from 6 Oct 2023)
Oppose: 29% (+1)

you gov 22 april


(they've been busy)

Latest party leader net favourability ratings, April 2026

Kemi Badenoch: -21
Nigel Farage: -38
Keir Starmer: -45

Ed Davey: -3 (37% DK)
Zack Polanski: -9 (39% DK)


You gov, and surprising (to me) that davey has 37%
don't know, almost as if he's not being seen.

Not good with locals imminent, the staple of lib dems

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 30% (+9)
RFM: 25% (+24)
LAB: 15% (-21)
CON: 12% (-13)
GRN: 10% (+6)
LDM: 6% (+2)

Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 2-8 Apr,
Changes w/ 2021.

From another exchange

The #LocalElections2026 take place two weeks today - and now we've released our seat lines for polling day:

#Labour - 700
#Reform - 1,800
#Greens - 700
#LibDems - 800

52% of Britons think they could easily purchase cannabis if they wanted to, as a BBC investigation reveals high street shops readily selling cannabis and other illegal drugs

Easy: 52%
Difficult: 14%

You gov

Most favoured party leader by region:
North: Farage, +2
Midlands: Farage, +5
South: Badenoch, +3
London: Starmer, +2
Wales: Farage, +4
Scotland: Polanski, +3

Figures are margins over the second-placed party leader by net favourability.

Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 17-21 April.




Most favoured politician, including party leaders, Burnham, Reeves, Miliband, Streeting, Rayner, Cooper and Donald Trump.

North: Burnham, +13
Midlands: Farage, +4
South: Badenoch, +3
London: Burnham, +1
Wales: Burnham, +5
Scotland: Burnham, +3

So even in Wales, and Scotland they asked about the same people (John Swinney and Scottish Green leaders were not included in this poll)

From another exchange

The #LocalElections2026 take place two weeks today - and now we've released our seat lines for polling day:

#Labour - 700
#Reform - 1,800
#Greens - 700
#LibDems - 800

Why have they omitted conservatives? (currently holding 1,100 of the seats up for grabs)

For reform to win 1,800 seats, they will need to win about 1,000 currently held by labour.
Sure it could happen, but I'm sceptical. I think 1,300 is a stretch and would be a very good result for them.

Low turn out, anything can happen.

Low turnout and variable regional swings.

Fascinating, but big changes seem inevitable

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention,
26-27 April 2026

Reform UK: 26% (-1 from 19-20 Apr)
Conservatives: 19% (+2)
Labour: 18% (+2)
Greens: 15% (-2)
Lib Dems: 13% (-1)
Restore Britain: 3% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 1% (+1)

Senedd Voting Intention Poll for @AberUni and @NewyddionS4C

RFM: 30% (+6)
PC: 28% (+4)
LAB: 15% (-12)
CON: 10% (-5)
GRN: 10% (+5)
LD: 4% (-1)
OTH: 4% (+3)

Changes vs April 2025

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £45,777 Matched

			106.3%		93.8%
Plaid Cymru	1.43	1.44	1.45		1.57	1.58	1.7	£28,629
	£43	£560	£46		£7	£10	£10
Reform UK	2.8	2.82	2.84		3.35	3.4	3.65	£16,582
	£26	£103	£51		£25	£323	£15
Liberal	48	120	150		-	-	-	£35
	£1	£2	£6
Green	60	120	140		-	-	-	£72
	£2	£5	£4
Labour	110	150	160		430	970	-	£453
	£2	£2	£3		£2	£2
Conservative	540	560	1000		-	-	-	£5
	£1	£2	£4

Too close to call.

Westminster Voting Intention:   

RFM: 24% (-1)
GRN: 20% (-1)
CON: 18% (+2)
LAB: 16% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-) 

Via @FindoutnowUK, 29th April,
Changes w/ 22-23rd April

Blanket photo finish?

Local trends become ever more important, as does getting your vote out.

Refuk are keen voters, lib dems are fanatical door knockers

Labour and tories stay home when it's not going well

Green unknown.

I am just wondering if the five million Farage money could be a growing story and possibly there is more to come?

I doubt it plays into locals, but there could be
parliamentary repercussions after kings speech.

With one week to go to the elections, this will be my last
Scotland poll tracker until Wednesday evening.

SNP 1 short of a majority.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 64 (nc)
Lab: 17 (-5)
Ref: 17 (+17)
Grn: 11 (+3)
LD: 10 (+6)
Con: 10 (-21)

Mark mcGeoghen on blue sky

He's teflon, the stories don't stick. The shenanigans over the house prove that.



Don't get your hopes up.

Sure, but there can be no denying that the Reform voting intention lead is being gradually eroded. Tactical voting would more than eliminate that lead completely.

Under House of Commons rules, new MPs must register all financial benefits over £50 received in the 12 months preceding their election. Critics, including Conservative Party Chair Kevin Hollinrake, argue Farage was "obliged" to report this payment upon his election to Parliament in July 2024.

I'm not sure why he didn't declare it, but seems that
he didn't.

Probably just an inadvertent thing, but doesn't play well
on top of tax dodging on new house in Clacton.

Did he report the £5m personal gift to the tax man?
(I assume it would attract a tax liability)

I assume a gift is tax free for recipient, hence why
it's a gift and he expects nothing back.

A bit more research indicates that the £3k annual tax free gift limit is part of the inheritance tax clawback if the giver dies within 7 years.

I don't know what Thai rules are on inheritance tax, but
he's young enough to have good chance of lasting 7 years if that's the
rule here, and he's got plenty in his estate to cover any risk
to farrage if it is a rule anyway, unless crypto crashes.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 4-5 May 2026

Reform UK: 25% (-1 from 26-27 April)
Labour: 18% (=)
Conservatives: 17% (-2)
Greens: 15% (=)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 4% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 0% (-1)

YouGov's final MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP falling short of a majority, but on course for a fifth term in office


Regional vote
SNP: 28% (-12 from 2021 election)
Ref: 19% (+19)
Lab: 16% (-2)
Grn: 15% (+7)
Con: 11% (-12)
LD: 9% (+4)


SNP: 62 seats (-5 from 23 Mar-8 Apr)
Ref: 19 (-1)
Lab: 17 (+2)
Grn: 16 (+5)
LD: 8 (-1)
Con: 7 (=)

NEW: Senedd Voting Intention
PC - 30.3% (+2.4)
RFM - 28.2% (-1.4)
LAB 15.3% (-0.1)
CON - 9.5% (-0.5)
GRN - 7.2% (-2.7)
LD - 6.2% (+2.6)
Other - 3.4% (-0.2)

FW 1st - 6th May
Survation
Changes vs Apr 2026

seat model projects Plaid on 34 seats vs Reform on 32. Plaid holds a 78% chance of finishing first. Labour are on course for just 17 seats, a historic collapse for a party that has dominated Welsh politics for decades.

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 41% (+6)
RFM: 17% (+1)
LAB: 15% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+2)
CON: 10% (+1)
GRN: 1% (-11)

Regional:
SNP: 26% (-1)
RFM: 18% (+1)
GRN: 17% (-3)
LAB: 12% (-)
CON: 11% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 1 May - 6 May.
Changes w/ 15 - 20 Apr.

Election maps Seat Model:

SNP: 63
RFM: 18
GRN: 17
LAB: 11
LDM: 10
CON: 10

Senedd Voting Intention:

PLC: 35% (+6)
RFM: 28% (+1)
CON: 11% (-2)
LAB: 9% (-1)
GRN: 9% (-2)
LDM: 6% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 1st - 6th May,
Changes w/ 18th - 22nd Apr.

Election maps seat model:

PLC: 45
RFM: 31
CON: 8
LAB: 6
GRN: 4
LDM: 2

Westminster Voting Intention:   

RFM: 25% (+1)
CON: 20% (+2)
GRN: 20% (-)
LAB: 16% (-)
LDM: 11% (-)
SNP: 3% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 6th May,
Changes w/ 29th - 30th Apr

UK - Local Elections -- Winning Party

5 Runners            £289,979 Matched

			103.8%		98.3%
Reform	1.01	1.02	1.03		1.04	1.05	1.06	£268,715
	£9,589	£14,577	£547		£7,626	£47	£50
Labour	34	36	38		110	120	130	£7,400
	£57	£8	£11		£2	£4	£7
Green	42	44	46		140	150	190	£9,734
	£4	£7	£2		£2	£3	£5
Conservative	48	50	60		240	290	350	£2,723
	£2	£3	£22		£2	£5	£5
Liberal Democrats	400	410	420		650	770	790	£1,406
	£1	£1	£6		£2	£2	£1

UK - Local Elections -- 2nd Most Seats

5 Runners            £10,890 Matched

			116.7%		89.4%
Green	2.28	2.38	2.4		3.25	4.1	4.2	£5,426
	£25	£13	£57		£2	£2	£1
Liberal Democrats	3.15	3.2	3.25		3.8	4.1	5.4	£1,998
	£10	£21	£4		£43	£7	£20
Labour	2.94	3.6	3.75		4.3	4.9	5.4	£1,769
	£2	£19	£2		£41	£31	£13
Conservative	6	6.2	6.4		13.5	14	14.5	£1,359
	£5	£5	£3		£10	£8	£3
Reform	17	34	50		60	70	95	£338
	£3	£2	£6		£1	£2	£2

Welsh Elections -- Which Party will win the most seats?

6 Runners            £55,754 Matched

			102%		98.8%
Plaid Cymru	1.13	1.14	1.15		1.16	1.19	1.2	£36,693
	£3	£2	£368		£2,390	£1	£1
Reform UK	5.4	6.4	7		8	15	18.5	£18,430
	£3	£15	£41		£20	£3	£2
Liberal	310	500	520		-	-	-	£57
	£2	£9	£2
Green	410	420	500		-	-	-	£89
	£3	£1	£11
Labour	220	400	410		970	-	-	£473
	£1	£8	£2		£1
Conservative	540	570	1000		-	-	-	£11
	£2	£1	£5

Scottish Parliament Election -- Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

6 Runners            £225,832 Matched

			101%		99.1%
SNP	-	-	1.01		1.02	1.03	1.04	£224,357
			£2,422		£12,909	£5,784	£157
Reform UK	50	60	65		95	100	110	£1,080
	£263	£40	£36		£1	£1	£19
Labour	270	570	600		-	-	-	£223
	£2	£3	£3
Green	630	650	1000		-	-	-	£132
	£1	£2	£9
Conservative	270	730	1000		-	-	-	£26
	£1	£1	£8
Liberal Democrats	300	460	1000		-	-	-	£14
	£2	£1	£8

Scottish Parliament Election -- Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner 2nd place

6 Runners            £5,398 Matched

			110.8%		92.7%
Reform UK	1.33	1.38	1.39		1.48	1.49	1.64	£3,085
	£154	£20	£15		£7	£29	£26
Labour	3.65	3.9	3.95		5	7	7.2	£1,831
	£3	£47	£9		£86	£1	£2
Green	7.8	8.2	8.4		21	29	32	£442
	£6	£6	£1		£7	£9	£2
SNP	110	150	160		860	-	-	£23
	£1	£1	£2		£1
Conservatives	110	120	140		920	-	-	£16
	£2	£1	£3		£1
Liberal Democrats	270	300	360		1000	-	-	£1
	£2	£1	£2		£1

Proper polling

What would Britons say the price of a "decent" bottle of wine is?

£5 or less: 3%
£6: 4%
£7: 7%
£8: 12%
£9: 6%
£10: 20%
£11: 1%
£12: 7%
£13: 1%
£14: 1%
£15: 8%
£16-£19: 2%
£20 or more: 6%

You gov 8th may

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention figures

The latest YouGov voting intention poll for The Times and Sky News shows Reform UK leading on 28% of the vote, up three points from last week’s poll and eleven points ahead of any other party, their highest lead with YouGov to date.

Reform UK: 28% (+3 from 4-5 May)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Labour: 16% (-2)
Lib Dems: 13% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Your Party: 0% (=)
Others: 2% (=)

Andy Burnham is the top preference to become the next Labour leader and prime minister in the event of a leadership contest - among both Labour members and the general public

Our poll of Labour members, conducted before the May 7th elections, showed:

- Burnham was the top choice of two-fifths of the membership (42%), 31 points ahead of both Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner
- Almost two-thirds (63%) put him in their top three preferences


Survation.

https://electionmaps.uk/support-for-starmer

..

Mps declared for or against starmer staying, and
those as yet undeclared.

The Daily Star have bought another lettuce

Labour Leadership Voting Intentions:

Starmer Vs Burnham:
Burnham: 61%
Starmer: 28%

Starmer Vs Miliband:
Miliband: 46%
Starmer: 39%

Starmer Vs Rayner:
Rayner: 45%
Starmer: 41%

Starmer Vs Streeting:
Starmer: 53%
Streeting: 23%

Via @LabourList - 1,124 Members, 13-14 May.

Latest party leader net favourability ratings, May 2026

Ed Davey: -9
Kemi Badenoch: -17
Zack Polanski: -27
Nigel Farage: -37
Keir Starmer: -46

Yougov.

(Andy Burnham +4)

Feels like ages since last poll, lol.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 17-18 May 2026

Reform UK: 25% (-3 from 10-11 May)
Conservatives: 18% (+1)
Labour: 17% (+1)
Greens: 15% (-1)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 4% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)
Your Party: 0% (=)

GB-wide Poll, Excluding Don't Knows

**** Not just makerfield *****

Assuming Andy Burnham is selected as Labour's candidate in Makerfield, who would you most like to see win the By-Election:

LAB: 38%
RFM: 27%
GRN: 13%
CON: 8%
LDM: 6%
Other: 6%

Via @YouGov, 17-18 May.

Westminster Voting Intention [Burnham as Leader]:

LAB: 30% (+8)
RFM: 27% (-2)
CON: 20% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-4)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 15-19 May.
Changes w/ Standard VI.

Very small pitch of salt, but first one I've seen.

Labour's moved in, Reform's moved out, probably on the news of that survey^^^

UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £2,493,390 Matched

			98.1%		95.7%
Reform UK	2.62	2.64	2.68		2.7	2.74	2.76	£1,342,659
	£416	£1,884	£361		£264	£2,000	£50
Labour	3.2	3.25	3.3		3.4	3.45	3.5	£539,611
	£2,064	£1,000	£70		£173	£77	£48
Conservatives	6.2	6.4	6.6		6.8	7	7.2	£186,441
	£201	£212	£272		£57	£68	£48
Green Party	16.5	17	17.5		18	18.5	19	£213,677
	£285	£364	£59		£4	£40	£17
Restore Britain	12.5	13	13.5		14	14.5	15	£163,346
	£319	£164	£77		£5	£92	£123
Liberal Democrats	50	55	60		65	70	75	£31,015
	£37	£69	£493		£2	£103	£4
Your Party	370	380	390		560	570	580	£6,998
	£19	£3	£2		£2	£3	£1
Advance UK	560	600	610		880	990	1000	£8,232
	£2	£2	£2		£2	£2	£27
Workers Party of Britain	820	880	1000		-	-	-	£1,412
	£3	£2	£14

Awful survey, but...

And Mr restore working hard here too.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-1)
GRN: 19% (+2)
CON: 18% (+1)
LAB: 16% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via
@FindoutnowUK
, 27 May.
Changes w/ 20 May.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 25-26 May 2026

Reform UK: 24% (-1 from 17-18 May)
Conservatives: 19% (+1)
Labour: 17% (=)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Lib Dems: 14% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Your Party: 0% (=)

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (-1)
LAB: 22% (+2)
CON: 21% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 10% (-3)
SNP: 2% (-2)

Via
@Moreincommon_
, 29 May - 1 June.
Changes w/ 22-25 May.

YouGov
@YouGov
·
6h
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 7-8 June 2026

Reform UK: 25% (-2 from 31 May-1 Jun)
Conservatives: 19% (+1)
Labour: 19% (+1)
Greens: 14% (-1)
Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Restore Britain: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1)
Your Party: 1% (+1)

Reform are consistently falling into that mid twenties polling intention bracket from where it's impossible for them to win a majority of seats.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 17% (=)
LAB: 16% (+1)
LDM: 13% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

@FindoutnowUK
, 10-11 Jun.
Changes w/ 3 Jun.