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17 May 20 15:15
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Date Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 24,895 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Net Approval Ratings of Party Leaders

Keir Starmer (LAB): +24 (+6)
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +15 (+7)
Boris Johnson (CON): +10 (-10)
Ed Davey (LD): -4 (+3)
Nigel Farage (BRX): -20 (+2)

Via @OpiniumResearch

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By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 15:25
On March 26th, just after the lockdown came in, the pollster that came out best at GE2019 (Opinion) found a net 43% in the government’s approval rating. Tonight’s poll has that down to a net minus 3. So overall a 45 point drop in seven weeks.
By:
moondan
When: 17 May 20 16:14
No surprise.

Starmer in so many ways is a much safer pair of hands than Johnson.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 May 20 16:59
Net favourability @YouGov 13-14 May
Rishi Sunak +35
Keir Starmer +9
Boris Johnson +7
Matt Hancock -1
Dominic Raab -3
Priti Patel -34
https://t.co/wS3ZucfRrm
By:
brigust1
When: 17 May 20 17:01
No surprise there. 'Opinium' polls for the Observer, sister paper of The Guardian and part of Guardian Media Group.
You really should just move along. They are only printing this for the 'Remainers', their target market. The more readers they get the more advertising they sell.Laugh
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 17:19

May 17, 2020 -- 12:01PM, brigust1 wrote:


No surprise there. 'Opinium' polls for the Observer, sister paper of The Guardian and part of Guardian Media Group. You really should just move along. They are only printing this for the 'Remainers', their target market. The more readers they get the more advertising they sell.


You are unhealthily obsessed with the Guardian. The other night there was a poll on here on independent website EuropeElects which you also said was connected to the Guardian. Let me tell you something. The polling companies, such as Opinion, are totally independent as is for example the site europeelects. Political polls are a fraction of a polling companies business and they all need to be completely above board and transparent in their commissioned work whether it be politics, which toothpaste you use or where you go your holidays. If they were not, they would rapidly go out of business. Hopefully you will be able to take that in.

By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 17:37

May 17, 2020 -- 11:59AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Net favourability @YouGov 13-14 MayRishi Sunak +35Keir Starmer +9Boris Johnson +7Matt Hancock -1Dominic Raab -3Priti Patel -34https://t.co/wS3ZucfRrm


Sunak doing really well in all polls I have looked at and Patel badly. Her days are numbered and I wonder if she can survive the upcoming employment tribunal case.

By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 May 20 18:41
They will be looking for a scapegoat soon.

Williamson days in education may be limited so a natural replacement
for Patel.?
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 18:50

May 17, 2020 -- 1:41PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


They will be looking for a scapegoat soon.Williamson days in education may be limited so a natural replacementfor Patel.?


The problem with Williamson (although it helped him get in the cabinet) is that he is a traitor in the eyes of the previous Conservative government, when he blabbed secrets to his mate at the telegraph. The home office might be too risky for him to be chanced in there. There is so little quality in the current cabinet that contenders are thin on the ground. Wouldn't rule Gove out but Boris probably wants him as far away as possible from main roles as he can't be trusted at all.

By:
brigust1
When: 17 May 20 19:27

May 17, 2020 -- 12:19PM, politicspunter wrote:


May 17, 2020 --  5:01PM, brigust1 wrote:No surprise there. 'Opinium' polls for the Observer, sister paper of The Guardian and part of Guardian Media Group. You really should just move along. They are only printing this for the 'Remainers', their target market. The more readers they get the more advertising they sell.You are unhealthily obsessed with the Guardian. The other night there was a poll on here on independent website EuropeElects which you also said was connected to the Guardian. Let me tell you something. The polling companies, such as Opinion, are totally independent as is for example the site europeelects. Political polls are a fraction of a polling companies business and they all need to be completely above board and transparent in their commissioned work whether it be politics, which toothpaste you use or where you go your holidays. If they were not, they would rapidly go out of business. Hopefully you will be able to take that in.


You probably think that PP. Goodness me. There are very few polling companies that do not work for newspapers, the EU you name it.
If you look at the website you sent to me, the only newspaper they claim to provide polls for is The Guardian. Europeelects is a European Think Tank used by anti Brexit newspapers. They are not totally independent.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

By:
brigust1
When: 17 May 20 19:29
Look at the website I sent to you and look at who Opinium's client is.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 19:45

May 17, 2020 -- 2:27PM, brigust1 wrote:


May 17, 2020 --  5:19PM, politicspunter wrote:May 17, 2020 --  5:01PM, brigust1 wrote:No surprise there. 'Opinium' polls for the Observer, sister paper of The Guardian and part of Guardian Media Group. You really should just move along. They are only printing this for the 'Remainers', their target market. The more readers they get the more advertising they sell.You are unhealthily obsessed with the Guardian. The other night there was a poll on here on independent website EuropeElects which you also said was connected to the Guardian. Let me tell you something. The polling companies, such as Opinion, are totally independent as is for example the site europeelects. Political polls are a fraction of a polling companies business and they all need to be completely above board and transparent in their commissioned work whether it be politics, which toothpaste you use or where you go your holidays. If they were not, they would rapidly go out of business. Hopefully you will be able to take that in.You probably think that PP. Goodness me. There are very few polling companies that do not work for newspapers, the EU you name it. If you look at the website you sent to me, the only newspaper they claim to provide polls for is The Guardian. Europeelects is a European Think Tank used by anti Brexit newspapers. They are not totally independent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_ge...


I am going to try and help you here.

1/ This is a betting site. I think you should be ok with that one.
2/ This is the politics section of the betting site. I think you will also be ok with that.
3/ This forum is for folks that bet on politics. Ok so far?

The way you win money on politics is to follow opinion polls and utilise the data they provide. Political punters like me may have political allegiances but we don't give a hoot in that regard when it comes to political betting as hopefully you will understand if you care to look through the multiple threads on this forum going back years, not only in the UK but in other parts of the world, particularly the USA.

If you understand that, politics betting is a niche market that has proven over years for some of us on here to be a licence to print money.

By:
brigust1
When: 17 May 20 19:58
The dictum is 'when in a hole stop digging'.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 20:03
I basically stopped posting bets on here because of abuse from clowns like Crippen, insider trader, akabula and the like. Now I only occasionally post bets, but I pm others on here with ones which I feel are value. I am going to post a couple of bets now for the upcoming November USA general election. I may as well show the first couple alphabetically for Presidential state markets...

Here is my current betting position just now from the Presidential state market, alphabetically from the top..

Alabama Presidential Winner
TRADED: £1,822P&L: £366.96/-£629.83

Alaska presidential winner
TRADED: £1,826P&L: £499.05/£122.28

If the republicans win Alabama, I win £366.96. If the democrats win, I lose £629.83. If the republicans win Alaska, I win £499.05. If the democrats win, I win £122.28.

Feel free to take a note of them.
By:
nineteen points
When: 17 May 20 20:20
sunak doing well fair enough,but fred west would be right up there as well if he was giving free money away
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 20:23
Sunak doing well, probably because some of the rest are abysmal, even on a good day.
By:
brigust1
When: 17 May 20 20:28
I wish you well with your bets PP. I am nor trying to tell you how to gamble on politics. I am simply pointing out that The Guardian and her sister paper the Observer have a vested interest in slagging off Boris, opposing Brexit and promoting the EU. That is all.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 20:29

May 17, 2020 -- 3:28PM, brigust1 wrote:


I wish you well with your bets PP. I am nor trying to tell you how to gamble on politics. I am simply pointing out that The Guardian and her sister paper the Observer have a vested interest in slagging off Boris, opposing Brexit and promoting the EU. That is all.


I don't read newspapers.

By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 May 20 20:58
I wonder if Sunak's popularity rides out his "Giveaway Gavin" time. I think it might. He's like the tory Starmer now. Clearly younger than most others around, and they've all just become embroiled in the Boris cult or have multiple examples of bull in their recent history.

In much the same way Starmer is making mincemeat of Johnson by his forensic, studied approach contrasting with the other's blustering, populist style that is running dry without a baying mob behind him to cheer him on, I think Sunak may soon be seen as the tories' best home to claw back ground lost to Starmer pretty soon as he will potentially be able to match him in the ability to debate issues like an adult stakes.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 21:06
Yes, fair points. I have one issue with Rishi on the debating front. He took part in the 2019 General election debates, as the hide and seek champion was in his fridge, and performed pretty poorly. Now, it might simply have been nerves or having to think quickly on his feet unscripted but he didn't do great. However, being promoted to chancellor and being much better in live briefings will have done his confidence the world of good. Starmer will always remain a very tough nut to crack in a one on one basis.
By:
tobermory
When: 17 May 20 21:15
Is Starmer outclassing Boris at PMQs going to be  a big factor at next election ?

Hague did much the same to Blair.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 21:28
Leader approval is a massive factor when it comes to where folks place their vote. Corbyn was -50 at the general election. Over the years, leader ratings have proved a very accurate guide to election results and currently, as Starmers approval ratings improve gradually, so does Labour in closing the gap.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 21:31
I should also say that the Hollyrood elections are next up (2021) and Nicola Sturgeons approval ratings are improving as does SNP voting intention.
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 21:35
On the eve of the 2003 general election, leader ratings were...

Blair -2
Hague -28
Kennedy +15
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 May 20 21:37
Starmer is asking questions of the worst pm this country has have had.

It would be difficult to find 6 questions that do not reflect badly on
handling of this crisis.

Sunak building up a solid reputation for finance, but if he's forced to
go down austerity route to pay for furlough then it will collapse.

He's probably earned himself a free hand as the tories are hardly likely to ditch him.

Interesting to see how he plays his hand, and how he creates a path through brexit
and sorting deficit and handling a much inflated national debt.

Brexit has cost us £200 billion so far, corona about 100 billion possibly rising to 500
billion at current recovery, whilst brexit could easily match that over next 18 months.

Still plenty he can do with them figures given everybody is in same boat
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 May 20 21:38
Has ever had
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 May 20 21:43
Surely the challenge for the tories now - not that it's changed - is for our economy to outstrip the EU's in the coming couple of years. Twas always the case but this virus actually gives a nice way of marking progress. If we go down the no deal route, and I suspect we will, then the success or failure of it will be measured by our growth in the coming period as opposed to the growth of Germany or France, or of the EU in total. I suspect we'll not come out of it looking to great due to a combination of the worst government in the last 100 years or so in concert with a EU aware of this measure and wanting to send a message to other countries thinking about leaving, and showing them how bad it can turn out. Best put our seatbelts on.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 May 20 21:44
Matching dodds against Sunak might be an error by labour, she hasn't filled me with confidence when on tv.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 May 20 21:46
Brexit break on economy will be passed off as corona.

A godsend for swivel eyes

But in 4 years time it may not wash
By:
tobermory
When: 17 May 20 22:01
Brexit has cost us £200 billion so far

really....
By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 22:09

May 17, 2020 -- 4:44PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Matching dodds against Sunak might be an error by labour, she hasn't filled me with confidence when on tv.


I haven't really seen her much but she is a clever cookie.

By:
politicspunter
When: 17 May 20 22:12
The day may come, post brexit perhaps, when Starmer is consistently getting the measure of Boris and the tory machine decide it's time to act before it's too late.
By:
brigust1
When: 17 May 20 23:31
Some on here really have no idea. Boris will be wiping the floor with Starmer when this is over. He cannot do anything at the moment because he is showing humility unlike his opposite number who is just trying to score cheap points. Starmer has no flair, he has no style and he is only there because the opposition to him never existed. Man for man, woman for woman the tory party versus the labour party is like Man City against QPR and QPR's bus is stuck in traffic.
That day you are dreaming of PP is never going to come because Starmer is more wooden than a post. You have got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them as they say. Happy dreamin'.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 18 May 20 00:52
The wooden post makes the clown look like a wannabee clown.

Tories want cheerleaders to make the clown look popular

The clown has been exposed as a buffer, a chancer, he won't
be able to deal with a wooden post

As for humility the deaths of 60,000 on your conscience because
of your blundering and crass stupidity will do that to you.

It is Starmer who is showing great humility with such an easy target.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 May 20 08:15
Good username by the way. Very apt.

Boris is being the perfect PM. He is caring, compassionate, cautious and collected. He is currently playing rope a-dope with Starmer who is like a puppet with broken strings.

The last time Boris opened up against the Labour party they all started crying, don't, please don't, I can't stand it, please don't, stop it.

And when Starmer turns around to look at his back four he will know, as he surely does, the game is well and truly up.
Angela Rayner, Anneliese Dodds, Lisa Nandy, David Lammy, Johnathan Ashworth, Rachel Reeves, Emily Thornberry you could not make it up. Thinking back it was probably an insult to QPR.
By:
politicspunter
When: 18 May 20 08:25
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/keir-starmer-approval-rating-boris-johnson-first-time-a4438786.html

Starmer now more popular than Boris.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 18 May 20 08:34
When the whole sheetshow is exposed,needless thousands of deaths due to inertia in March and the killing of old people due to them being untested before being put back to care homes.

Boris and the tory goverments chronic incompetence will only lead to the polls going one way for them.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 May 20 09:31
You are having a laugh!
Even with years of austerity Labour couldn't get close to the Tories and now, even with thousands dying, Starmer 'may' have a one point lead in approval ratings. Wake up for goodness sake.
40% Brits think Starmer is doing fairly well while 57% of Brits think Boris is doing fairly well.

Starmer is currently sat on one of those plastic ball supports used for kicking tries in rugby. When Boris has for his boots on he will kick him into touch.
By:
politicspunter
When: 18 May 20 09:44

May 18, 2020 -- 4:31AM, brigust1 wrote:


You are having a laugh!Even with years of austerity Labour couldn't get close to the Tories and now, even with thousands dying, Starmer 'may' have a one point lead in approval ratings. Wake up for goodness sake. 40% Brits think Starmer is doing fairly well while 57% of Brits think Boris is doing fairly well. Starmer is currently sat on one of those plastic ball supports used for kicking tries in rugby. When Boris has for his boots on he will kick him into touch.


brigust1, I keep trying to tell you the same thing but it doesn't appear to be getting through. This is a politics betting forum. We bet on politics to make money. We have political allegiances but at the end of the day all we are interested in is making money. If you are betting based on those allegiances, as you clearly are, you are going to lose all your money.

By:
politicspunter
When: 18 May 20 10:23
The gap between conservatives and labour is likely to remain pretty high until, first of all the coronavirus situation is gone and secondly, when the brexit situation is resolved. In times of national crisis or in a "one issue" situation as the previously mentioned situations could be categorised, voters tend to rally round the governing party in times of national crisis, Falklands war, 9/11 etc and also in a one issue situation latch on to a party that fulfils their one issue feelings, Brexit Party doing very well at the EU elections eg. Once the smoke clears and we are back to more run of the mill stuff, opinion polling tends to trend towards how well the leaders of individual parties are performing, after all, that is who you see in the media. It has been shown over many years that leaders approval ratings are a good guide as to election performance. Tobermory mentioned earlier that it was perceived that Hague did better than Blair in Commons debates, and he may well have been correct. However, Hague was starting from a very low base and his approval rating (-28) compared to Blair (-2) meant that the writing was pretty much on the wall in the 2001 general election. Charles Kennedy (+15) approval rating indicated a fairly strong result which indeed turned out to be the case.
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