A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings

Clearly poor maths teaching in Ireland as well as England.

Yes, if the Tories take 5 points of Labour they would be level. If you can't follow this write the numbers down and you will see that this is correct.

Not saying this will happen (I don't think it will), just saying that it is very easy maths.

Come on now, surely if Labour lose another five it doesn't automatically go to the tories, does it?

If it does they are equal as foin says

Of course they could lose further votes to other parties also
and be behind the tories

It’s not a difficult thing to grasp

Just a few months ago they were 30pts behind
tick tock ……

A reminder,

From page 1 of this thread



I am going to try and help you here.

1/ This is a betting site. I think you should be ok with that one.
2/ This is the politics section of the betting site. I think you will also be ok with that.
3/ This forum is for folks that bet on politics. Ok so far?

The way you win money on politics is to follow opinion polls and utilise the data they provide. Political punters like me may have political allegiances but we don't give a hoot in that regard when it comes to political betting as hopefully you will understand if you care to look through the multiple threads on this forum going back years, not only in the UK but in other parts of the world, particularly the USA.

If you understand that, politics betting is a niche market that has proven over years for some of us on here to be a licence to print money.





Wise words indeed.

It is possible to predict many months prior to
a general election what is likely to happen , maybe a year and a half
Using data - the tories should prepare for a major loss

That’s assuming no major shock within the next 18 months . or whatever
time is left until the next election

However a reminder .. because many on this forum have very short memories …
2019

What you want, what you hope for is one thing

What you should bet on may be something else.

When they coincide, and you win, it's great.

But it's not a guaranteed system for winning.

Thanks for that little bit of information

I’ll be sure to let someone know if I can find anyone

*who believes in such a system

Plenty on here, sadly. (for them)

There will be no one on this forum - not one
who uses or believes in such a magical system

Ha ha ha, you should read the forum.

Names ?

Renainers perhaps ? 2016?

How did they bet ?

No need to take sides, both sides have their blind followers
and it's a bad move

Bet with yer heed, not yer heart.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (-)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
REFUK: 7% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-1)

via @RedfieldWilton, 01 Oct

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (=)
CON: 26% (-2)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via
@DeltapollUK
, 29 Sep - 2 Oct.
Changes w/ 22-25 Sep.

Deltapoll
@DeltapollUK

Con 26% (-2)
Lab 44% (-)
Lib Dem 12% (+2)
Other 18% (-)
Fieldwork: 29 September - 2 October 2023
Sample: 1,516 GB adults
(Changes from 22nd-25th September 2023)

oops, sorry

Looks to be same poll reformatted!

Easily done...

yes

In the wake of the VAR fail in Sunday's Liverpool-Spurs match, regular Premier League viewers are more likely to say we should be able to listen in on the conversations between referees and video assistant referees

Support: 84% (+7 from 2020)
Neither: 8% (-7)
Oppose: 6% (-1)

Westminster voting intention:

LAB 46% (+2)
CON: 27% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-)
REF: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)

via @Savanta_UK, 29 Sep - 01 Oct

YouGov
@YouGov
Rishi Sunak has been trying to position himself as the candidate of change - but 69% of Britons say he represents more of the same

Represents change: 13%
Represents more of the same: 69%

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1709619177542033473

lab 45
tory 27

Britain Predicts - How Rutherglen and Hamilton West might vote in an election held today:

LAB: 47.9% (+13.4)
SNP: 37.1% (-7.1)
CON: 9.5% (-5.5)

The LibDems have a small pocket of support in this constituency and I could see them retaining their deposit.

Oct 4 to 5
Conservative

24%
Labour
45%

Lib Dem
11%

SNP

4%
Plaid Cymru

1%
RefUK
8%

Green
7%

Other
1%

Data based on a survey of 2,062 adults

You gov...

No change except snp go from 3 to 4%

Amington (Tamworth) council by-election result:

LAB: 42.9% (-7.8)
CON: 33.7% (-15.6)
IND: 15.5% (+15.5)
REF: 6.3% (+6.3)
UKIP: 1.6% (+1.6)

Votes cast: 1,560

Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Rutherglen and Hamilton West parliamentary by-election, result:

LAB: 58.6% (+24.1)
SNP: 27.6% (-16.6)
CON: 3.9% (-11.1)
LDEM: 2.9% (-2.2)
GRN: 2.0% (+2.0)
REF: 1.3% (+1.3)

Labour GAIN from SNP.

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK

How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:


LAB: 38 (+37)
SNP: 7 (-41)
CON: 7 (+1)
LDM: 5 (+3)

Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.

the election maps number isnt particularly serious, they staete its a just for fun exercise.

state

Yeah it's not good to project by election
results into an election.

Swing was bigger than expected at 20.3%.

We think

Lab 44% (-3)
Con 28% (+1)
LDem 10% (NC)
​​ Refuk 6% (-1)
Green 5% (NC)
SNP 2% (-1)

We think

Best pm

Sir Keir Starmer: 38% (NC)
Rishi Sunak: 32% (+3)
​​Don’t Know: 30% (-3)


Bad week for don't know

We think

We also asked this week if people believed the Gov is committed to ‘levelling up’ - defined as ‘creating opportunities for everyone across the UK’?

53% no
26% yes
21% don’t know

Labour lead has narrowed to fifteen percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 28% (+2)
Lab 43% (-1)
Lib Dem 12% (-)
Other 17% (-1)
Fieldwork: 5th-6th October 2023
Sample: 1,517 GB adults
(Changes from 29th September-2nd October 2023)

LAB: 43% (-)
CON: 27% (-2)
LDEM: 13% (+1)
REF: 8% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+2)

via @RedfieldWilton,8 Oct

The opinion polls have been showing a very consistent solid lead for Labour for over a year now. The tories will have to do something dramatic to close the gap or they are facing disaster. Sunak being chopped asap cant be ruled out, in order to give his successor a chance to make inroads into that huge Labour lead.

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 37% (+3)
LAB: 33% (-1)
CON: 18% (=)
LDM: 8% (+1)

Via
@PanelbaseMD
, 2-5 Oct.
Changes w/ 12-15 Jun.

(Fieldwork before Rutherglen By-Election).

How much sympathy would Britons feel towards families if their children's private school fees went up because of proposed new VAT rules?

None: 45%
Not much: 26%
Some: 13%
A lot: 6%

yougov


https://twitter.com/coldwarsteve/status/1712128384115867988?s=19

..

Where does the British public stand on abortion?

Should be allowed: 87%
Should not be allowed: 6%
Don't know: 7%

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 47% (+2)
CON: 24% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
REF: 8% (-)
GRN: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 11 - 12 Oct

We think


Lab 44% (NC)
Con 28% (NC)
LD 9% (-1)
​​​ Ref 7% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)

We think

Amid a plethora of promises, predictions and proclamations made during the conferences, which party did the best job at selling their vision to voters?

43% Labour
18% Conservative
​​​ 38% don’t know



While voter intention remained statuesque, the needle has definitely shifted in our preferred PM tracker, with Sir Keir doubling his advantage from last week and opening up a 12-point lead.

Sir Keir Starmer: 40% (+2)
Rishi Sunak: 28% (-4)
​​Don’t Know: 31% (+1)




ENVIRONMENT: Labour would ban bonuses to water chiefs whose firms allow pollution in rivers and increase fines for water company leaders. Thoughts Britain?

78% agree
8% disagree
14% don’t know



following Ofgem’s announcement that households could be asked to pay an extra £17 a year on their energy bills to prevent suppliers going bust, we asked how voters felt:

78% unfair to bill payers
14% fair to bill payers
8% don’t know

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 47% (+4)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (-2)

via @DeltapollUK, 13 - 16 Oct

The only chance the tories have to avoid annihilation is to dump Sunak now.

I think if they dump him now the party risks schism

He needs to stay and limit losses so they can build
for future.

With Labour and lib dems fighting each other
He can easily pick up a boost this week in by election.

What would be classed as a boost? Losing half their vote and hanging on by the skin of their teeth? They could be incredibly fortunate in Mid Bedfordshire that there is no clear challenger, with Labour and the LibDems fighting for votes.

I think any non loss will be spun as a win from
where he is. Even one hold would be cherished.

Did you have a ‘Sunday roast’ on the Sunday just passed?

All Britons: 25% yes

65+ year olds: 32%
25-64 year olds: 24%
18-24 year olds: 17%

yougov.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 14% nationally.

Westminster VI (15 October):

Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 14% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 1% (–)
Other 2% (–)

Changes +/- 8 October

Hugh Brechin
@HughRBrechin
·
1h
no, the SNP are not on 1% nationally. look at someone else's polls.

I actually know Hugh (from University Challenge). He is a good judge.

We think

Lab 44% (NC)
Con 28% (NC)
LDem 9% (-1)
​​ Refuk 7% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)

Best pm

Sir Keir Starmer: 40% (+2)
Rishi Sunak: 28% (-4)
​​ Don’t Know: 31% (+1)

Wt

following Ofgem’s announcement that households could be asked to pay an extra £17 a year on their energy bills to prevent suppliers going bust, we asked how voters felt:

78% unfair to bill payers
14% fair to bill payers
8% don’t know

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1714250497131979004?s=19

..

Alveley and Claverley (Shropshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 58.8% (+36.6)
CON: 36.3% (-33.1)
LAB: 4.9% (+4.9)

Votes cast: 1,125

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

Warndon Parish South (Worcester) council by-election result:

GRN: 53.7% (+36.2)
CON: 24.9% (-28.4)
LAB: 12.5% (-11.1)
LDEM: 6.7% (+1.2)
REF: 2.1% (+2.1)

Votes cast: 1,365

Green GAIN from Conservative.

Warndon Parish (Worcestershire) council by-election result:

GRN: 44.2% (+28.7)
CON: 24.2% (-36.9)
LDEM: 22.5% (+16.3)
LAB: 9.2% (-7.5)

Votes cast: 2,578

Green GAIN from Conservative.

Mid Bedfordshire parliamentary by-election, result:

LAB: 34.1% (+12.4)
CON: 31.1% (-28.6)
LDEM: 23.1% (+10.5)
IND: 4.6% (+3.3)
REF: 3.7% (+3.7)
GRN: 1.8% (-2.0)

Labour GAIN from Conservative





Tamworth parliamentary by-election, result:

LAB: 45.8% (+22.1)
CON: 40.7% (-25.7)
REF: 5.4% (+5.4)
UKIP: 1.7% (-0.1)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

We think

Lab 48% (+4)
Con 27% (-1)
LD 10% (+1)
​​ Refuk 7% (NC)
Green 4% (-2)
SNP 2% (-1)

Compared to the beginning of the pandemic, Britons...

Weight more: 33%
Weigh less: 22%
About the same weight: 36%

yougov.

CON: 24% (-1)
LAB: 48% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
REF: 8% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-2)

via @YouGov, 24 - 25 Oct

On those figures, the tories would be lucky to get 100 seats and that is before tactical voting comes into play.

Yeah I think the projection was 71.

Tactical will take more but some mps are hard
to shift because they are popular inside their
own constituencies so likely many avoid the cull.

Sunak is far from certain to hold his own seat of Richmond.

Would like to see a few polls nearer the time
within certain constituencies

We think

Lab 46% (-2)
Con 26% (-1)
LD 10% (NC)
Ref 7% (NC)
Green 6% (+2)
SNP 3% (+1)

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 13% (-)
REF: 7% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+2)

via @RedfieldWilton, 29 Oct

From what you’ve read and heard, how prepared, if at all, do you think the government is for a possible future pandemic?

Very prepared: 2%
Fairly prepared: 21%
Not very prepared: 36%
Not prepared at all: 30%

yougov

Labour has recorded their FIRST Scottish Labour lead in a Westminster poll since 2014

LAB: 38% (+6)
SNP: 32% (-1)
CON: 16% (-4)
LDM: 5% ()

Via @YouGov/@ScotVoting, On 20-25 October
Diff w 2-6 October

We think

Lab 45% (-1)
Con 27% (+1)
LDem 10% (NC)
Refuk 9% (+2)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (NC)

(2/3 Nov)

Labour lead up to 24 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

CON 23 (=)
LAB 47 (+3)
LIB DEM 10 (+1)
REF UK 8 (-1)
GREEN 7 (-2)   

Fieldwork 7 - 8 November

Tories are facing annihilation unless they do something and do it quickly.

Do you think Rishi Sunak should keep Suella Braverman as Home Secretary or should he sack her?

Should keep: 22% (Con 2019 voters: 48%)
Should sack: 49% (Con 2019 voters: 31%)
Don't know: 29% (Con 2019 voters: 21%)

yougov.

The plot thickens... no, we’re not talking about a Nadine Dorries novel. We’re talking voter intention, with Labour hitting a 24-point lead, their highest lead since early August.

Lab 48% (+3)
Con 24% (-3)
LD 9% (-1)
Ref 8% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (NC)

We think 9/10 nov

Britons think Rishi Sunak was right rather than wrong to sack Suella Braverman as home secretary

Right to sack her: 57% (44% of Con 2019 voters)
Wrong to sack her: 20% (39% of Con 2019 voters)

yougov

Snap poll - is the appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary a good decision or a bad decision?

Good decision: 24%
Bad decision: 38%
Don't know: 38%

yougov.







Loveto see this poll repeated tomorrow after
people have been told what to think!

He was wrong to have to sack her.
he should have shown absolute steel at the start and NOT have appointed her - whether her votes got her in or not.
Didn't have the bolls.
What a message that would have sent out.

Labour: 49%
Conservative: 19%
RefUK: 11%
Lib Dems: 9%
Green: 7%

@PeoplePolling, 1,581 people
Surveyed after PM's reshuffle yesterday


Real pinch of salt here,

1 they tend to have bigger labour leads
2 people still taking in news.

Survation


32% believe that ‘halving inflation’ would lead to declining price levels and just 23% realise prices would still rise

Remain in ECHR: 51%
Withdraw from ECHR: 28%
Not sure: 21%

yougov.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (14-15 Nov)

Con: 21% (-2 from 7-8 Nov)
Lab: 44% (-3)
Lib Dem: 10% (=)
Refuk: 10% (+2)
Green: 8% (+1)

yougov.

That is a long long road to come back from for the tories, with time running out rapidly.

Possibly wrong place for discussion.

But...

Sunak appears to want to alter law to allow
Rwanda deal, and may frame next election as mandate
on that, to stop immigration.

These policies are focus group tested.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 46% (-)
CON: 22% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
REF: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)

via @techneUK, 15 - 16 Nov

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 46% (+2)
CON: 25% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-3)
REF: 5% (+1)

via @IpsosUK


Can't see survey date?

We think 16/17 nov

Lab 45% (-3)
Con 25% (+1)
LD 11% (+2)
Ref 10% (+2)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (NC)

(kind of, more like, what I expected)

Argentina's new president has suggested efforts would be made to get the Falkland Islands back, but Rishi Sunak says it's not up for discussion

Britons think the Falklands belong with the UK by 57% to 16%,

When will Britons put up Christmas decorations?

Already did: 7%
Today or this weekend: 5%
Next week, before 1 Dec: 5%
Next week, on or after 1 Dec: 22%
Week after (4-10 Dec): 22%
Later than this: 17%

yougov

Growing the economy or reducing immigration? Brits are split 37% - 39% as to what should be the priority

Which should the government prioritise?

Economic growth, even if it means more immigration: 37%
Reducing immigration, even if it means less economic growth: 39%
Neither: 11%

yougov

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+2)
CON: 25% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
REF: 10% (+3)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via @RedfieldWilton

Rishi Sunak cancelled a meeting with the Greek PM over his calls for the Parthenon Marbles to be returned to Greece

By 66% to 11% Britons think this was the wrong decision

yougov

Where do Britons think the Parthenon Sculptures / Elgin Marbles should be kept?

In Britain: 15%
In Greece: 49%
Don't mind either way: 26%

yougov.