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Angela Rebecchi
03 May 17 21:06
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Date Joined: 15 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 39,426 | Blogger: Angela Rebecchi's blog
1.1 is a glorious price.
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Report unitedbiscuits May 3, 2017 10:28 PM BST
He won the debate?

Oh dear, more bad news for Theresa.
Report unitedbiscuits May 3, 2017 10:29 PM BST
At least Marine Me Pen didn't duck the debate. Fair play for respecting the electorate.
Report iamhewho May 4, 2017 1:17 PM BST
polls say macron , im on le pen , le pen won the debate, 10.5 is value imo seeing the same signs as i did for trump and brexit
Report InsiderTrader May 4, 2017 1:49 PM BST
Macron said that France itself was partly responsible for all the terrorism taking place.

He has no plans to do anything about the threat.

The French people can expect more of the same from him. More EU integration, more immigration, more youth unemployment, more tensions.

Le Pen was poor on the economy. She failed to make the case for France leaving the EU/Euro which was disappointing as membership is hurting not just the French but all the people of Europe to the benefit of politicians, big business and bankers.

There will be more elections for them to keep going. The problem for them is the FN party is wrongly labelled. They need to form a new anti-EU party with new ideas from left and right to take down the Tyranny of the EU and plastic made up politicians like Macron.
Report MartinK May 4, 2017 1:56 PM BST
Almost as optimistic as my labour bets.

The main difference between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen is that there wasn't a 15% - 20% polling gap with 3 days to go for the former two!
Report MartinK May 4, 2017 1:57 PM BST
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_el...
Report Des Pond May 4, 2017 8:08 PM BST
The time to back Macron was before the 1st round. 1.1 is more of a price to be laying off at, to be honest. Everyone knew that Macron's price would plummet, if and when, he got in to the 2nd round. Although, I must admit that I didn't expect his price to fall quite as far as it did. It would take a brave gambler to back at 1.1, imo. Even though it is very likely he will win. I'm glad that I took the chance and backed heavily when he was odds against, and don't have to risk anything at those odds.
Report dom888 May 5, 2017 4:38 PM BST

May 4, 2017 -- 7:56AM, MartinK wrote:


Almost as optimistic as my labour bets. The main difference between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen is that there wasn't a 15% - 20% polling gap with 3 days to go for the former two!


absolutely
some clowns still dont realize it was very close in those swing states.
there was never a big difference in florida or ohio. Hillary had a lead of 2-3 % in the last polls not 20.

Report Angela Rebecchi May 5, 2017 9:34 PM BST

May 4, 2017 -- 7:17AM, iamhewho wrote:


polls say macron , im on le pen , le pen won the debate, 10.5 is value imo seeing the same signs as i did for trump and brexit


False. MLP is a statistical certainty not to win. Had the biggest bet of my life on at 1.17, just waiting now.

Report CLYDEBANK29 May 5, 2017 10:30 PM BST
He might yet swallow a peanut AR
Report lybertyne May 6, 2017 12:07 AM BST
I wonder if there's anything damaging in the leak.
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 6, 2017 10:31 AM BST
I'd always thought Le Pen's price was being influenced by the large majority of casuals just blindly backing off the back of BREXIT and Trump.  Although this morning I recalled the huge sums being bet by one entity on Asselineau, and the huge sums being bet on the Republicans in 2012 on Intrade, and whether it is political cash aswell, keeping the price down for appearances.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip May 6, 2017 11:00 AM BST
The worry would be that, like brexit/trump etc, the polls will understate the controversial side who will be quieter.

And Le Pen is arguably more controversial than recent examples so the effect is more pronounced.

Probably far enough behind though.
Report MartinK May 7, 2017 12:21 AM BST
The last polls had a 22%-24% gap between them. I'm not aware of any reputable National poll which has had that sort of difference turned over.
Remember the final polls for the first round were quite accurate.

Macron down to 1.06/1.07 now - although I don't believe the chance of an assignation is that high - because it's the only way I can see him losing.
Report anxious May 7, 2017 10:05 AM BST
French Election , next President ,365
Marine Le Pen    15-2
Emmanuel Macron  1-16
Report InsiderTrader May 7, 2017 10:50 AM BST
French voting for:

1. £60bn cut in welfare payments.
2. Open borders.
3. More gloabalism.
4. More control from the EU.

If only the left and right could get together and fight the EU rather than letting a pro-EU/Thatcherite banker take control.
Report iamhewho May 7, 2017 2:07 PM BST
im on le pen , matched at 16's , 18's  and hopefully 21's, the market stays in play until all votes counted no?
Report dom888 May 7, 2017 2:21 PM BST
dont waste your money
She has no chance
5.7 in the 40.01 - 45.00 %
thats a much better bet if you think she will do better than expected
last polls she had 38 %
Report iamhewho May 7, 2017 2:25 PM BST
she will very much do better than polls suggest , ill check it out ta
Report iamhewho May 7, 2017 2:31 PM BST
id lay 35 - 40 i thinks
Report MartinK May 7, 2017 5:07 PM BST
Interesting update on turnout:

The interior ministry is reporting voter participation at 65.30 percent at 5 p.m. down six points from 2012.

I suppose the - 70.01 - 73.0 Percent - at 3.3 might be worth a punt ... it might be close 72.5 - 74.0
Report MartinK May 7, 2017 5:37 PM BST
PARIS (Reuters) - The final abstention level in the second round of the French presidential election is likely to stand at between 25-27 percent, according to four polls published on Sunday.



A survey from Ifop-Fiducial put the abstention rate at 25 percent. Polls from Ipsos Sopra Steria and Elabe estimated the abstention rate at 26 percent while another poll from Harris Interactive estimated that rate at 27 percent.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/05/08/abstention-in-french-electio...
Report Angela Rebecchi May 7, 2017 11:24 PM BST

May 5, 2017 -- 4:30PM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:


He might yet swallow a peanut AR


Imagine! Hope you all cashed in, genuinely the best bet, all be it a very skinny price, I've ever seen on the site. I'll go lose it somewhere else now! Cool

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