Politics
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03 May 17
22:06
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15 Sep 02
1.1 is a glorious price.
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He won the debate?
Oh dear, more bad news for Theresa. |
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At least Marine Me Pen didn't duck the debate. Fair play for respecting the electorate.
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polls say macron , im on le pen , le pen won the debate, 10.5 is value imo seeing the same signs as i did for trump and brexit
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Macron said that France itself was partly responsible for all the terrorism taking place.
He has no plans to do anything about the threat. The French people can expect more of the same from him. More EU integration, more immigration, more youth unemployment, more tensions. Le Pen was poor on the economy. She failed to make the case for France leaving the EU/Euro which was disappointing as membership is hurting not just the French but all the people of Europe to the benefit of politicians, big business and bankers. There will be more elections for them to keep going. The problem for them is the FN party is wrongly labelled. They need to form a new anti-EU party with new ideas from left and right to take down the Tyranny of the EU and plastic made up politicians like Macron. |
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Almost as optimistic as my labour bets.
The main difference between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen is that there wasn't a 15% - 20% polling gap with 3 days to go for the former two! |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
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The time to back Macron was before the 1st round. 1.1 is more of a price to be laying off at, to be honest. Everyone knew that Macron's price would plummet, if and when, he got in to the 2nd round. Although, I must admit that I didn't expect his price to fall quite as far as it did. It would take a brave gambler to back at 1.1, imo. Even though it is very likely he will win. I'm glad that I took the chance and backed heavily when he was odds against, and don't have to risk anything at those odds.
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He might yet swallow a peanut AR
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I wonder if there's anything damaging in the leak.
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I'd always thought Le Pen's price was being influenced by the large majority of casuals just blindly backing off the back of BREXIT and Trump. Although this morning I recalled the huge sums being bet by one entity on Asselineau, and the huge sums being bet on the Republicans in 2012 on Intrade, and whether it is political cash aswell, keeping the price down for appearances.
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The worry would be that, like brexit/trump etc, the polls will understate the controversial side who will be quieter.
And Le Pen is arguably more controversial than recent examples so the effect is more pronounced. Probably far enough behind though. |
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The last polls had a 22%-24% gap between them. I'm not aware of any reputable National poll which has had that sort of difference turned over.
Remember the final polls for the first round were quite accurate. Macron down to 1.06/1.07 now - although I don't believe the chance of an assignation is that high - because it's the only way I can see him losing. |
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French Election , next President ,365
Marine Le Pen 15-2 Emmanuel Macron 1-16 |
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French voting for:
1. £60bn cut in welfare payments. 2. Open borders. 3. More gloabalism. 4. More control from the EU. If only the left and right could get together and fight the EU rather than letting a pro-EU/Thatcherite banker take control. |
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im on le pen , matched at 16's , 18's and hopefully 21's, the market stays in play until all votes counted no?
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dont waste your money
She has no chance 5.7 in the 40.01 - 45.00 % thats a much better bet if you think she will do better than expected last polls she had 38 % |
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she will very much do better than polls suggest , ill check it out ta
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id lay 35 - 40 i thinks
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Interesting update on turnout:
The interior ministry is reporting voter participation at 65.30 percent at 5 p.m. down six points from 2012. I suppose the - 70.01 - 73.0 Percent - at 3.3 might be worth a punt ... it might be close 72.5 - 74.0 |
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PARIS (Reuters) - The final abstention level in the second round of the French presidential election is likely to stand at between 25-27 percent, according to four polls published on Sunday.
A survey from Ifop-Fiducial put the abstention rate at 25 percent. Polls from Ipsos Sopra Steria and Elabe estimated the abstention rate at 26 percent while another poll from Harris Interactive estimated that rate at 27 percent. Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/05/08/abstention-in-french-election-second-round-seen-between-2527-percent--polls/#bzJiHqBkOW1K6Eru.99 |
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