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Melanchon for last 2 with le pen.
Melanchon for last 2 with le pen.
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Replies: 178
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Sswitched my attention from the football to see macron at 1.48.
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Both ISPOS and KANTAR estimate turnout at 78% , Harris estimate 78.5%
It's going to be close between 76 - 79 and 79 - 82 http://www.ipsos.fr/presidentielle2017/ http://www.fr.kantar.com/elections/presidentielle/2017/presidentielle-2017-tour-1-estimations/ https://twitter.com/harrisint_fr |
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Not sure I trust that early exit poll on Belgian TV. Polling companies have suggested they won't be doing exit polls so it's going to be later than usual to get any meaningful data.
I think there's value in opposing Macron at 1.3 and I've acted accordingly. |
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If I can lay off tonight at 1.28 or so. I'll be more than happy!
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You could be correct. The Belgium company did a similar exit poll in 2012 which had 2% between the top two - ended up 1.5%. So they have history, but this year is an unusual election
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FRANCE eng on SKY 513 is giving a turnout estimate at 77% (abstension 23%)
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Harris saying Le Pen not in top two.. Seems unlikely and I've no idea how reliable they are.
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do you have a link to the Harris story ?
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The turnout estimate of 77% is from - Ipsos/Sopra Steria firm puts abstention at 23 percent nationally. - http://www.france24.com/en/20170423-france-liveblog-presidential-election-first-round-results-follow-live
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Macron 1.29 to win the 1st round.
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The French are contrarian to a fault. There's nothing they like more than confounding expectations. "There are going to be a lot of glum faces among Le Pen supporters".
 That said, she could still make it, of course. |
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Macron/Le pen for final 2 is still strong favourite.
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projection is for Macron/Le pen for last 2
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Macron 1.19, even lower than i thought.
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Just watching France 24 Live .. its a joke
No results in yet - and they talking as though they know the result. |
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Makes for good betting opportunities.
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Yeah .. should have saved for this ..
Is it another Brexit - USA replay ? |
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Just watching France 24 Live .. its a joke
No results in yet - and they talking as though they know the result. The projections are based on a sample of actual votes. It might be wrong, but I won't be betting against it |
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Makes for good betting opportunities.
For those of us who have been backing Macron for months, at odds against, it makes for fantastic betting opportunities. |
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@ MK .. actual votes - or an IPOS Poll ?
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If its a run off between Le Pen and Macron on May 7 then he will beat her comfortably
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At 1.15, you don't have to take the chance, Anxious. I think I'll lay off, myself.
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Speaking from a purely selfish, betting point of view, of course.
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Mind you if Le Pen can't even win the "protest" vote. She stands little chance in the final round.
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Le Pen ahead according to interior ministry but I'm not sure how that is counted.
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Outright, of course.
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Not one actual result in yet ..
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Doesn't matter, I've already laid off.
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Thanks, CJ. very gracious of you.
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After Brexit and Trump, I think I was due a result.
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Guadeloupe goes Macron while Martinique goes Melenchon. Actual results.
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The left are rioting in Paris after the results. Something that never changes from country to country.
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Can someone tell me where & when we see the actual count results ?
wtf - I,m watching BBC & France 24 - nothing .. do results not come in one by one ? |
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http://www.wave3.com/story/35219426/the-latest-early-french-vote-results-le-pen-leads-macron
Partial official results from France's first-round presidential election show far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron leading. The two will advance to the May 7 runoff, after rivals conceded defeat. With 19.1 percent of the vote counted, the Interior Ministry said Sunday night that Le Pen was leading with 25 percent followed by Macron with 21.3 percent. The early vote count includes primarily rural constituencies that lean to the right, while urban areas that lean left are counted later. Polling agency projections show Macron in the lead with between 23 and 24 percent, followed by Le Pen with between 21 and 23 percent. |
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You can see the evolving projections here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 |
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@ MK .. thanks for that.
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So there is no area count results - as such .. one by one ..
Just "projections" - until the final count result announcement. |