So you think remain will be under 54.5 or over ?

Price shortened in just last couple of hours

I predict 52-54% remain win, unfortunately.
If the polls suggest it's neck and neck (well almost?), why are the odds suggesting a landslide for remain?
Is there something we don't know, or am I being cynical in thinking the postal vote is already known (result wise)
and that it's all over bar the shouting?

45-45 poll means 10% undecided.  conventional analysis gives more of the 10% to ultimately vote Remain.  They've been saying all along that Leave needs a lead in a poll to actually win.  Maybe that's whY?

yes - low turnout has been seen as a risk to Remain. 

reporting that it's been neck and neck in the polls probably a mobilising factor in the well off southern heartlands. It's not over yet though.

johnizere
23 Jun 16 10:59
I predict 52-54% remain win, unfortunately.
If the polls suggest it's neck and neck (well almost?), why are the odds suggesting a landslide for remain?
Is there something we don't know, or am I being cynical in thinking the postal vote is already known (result wise)
and that it's all over bar the shouting?


the cynic in me says that even if more people did for to Leave, it would never show up in the results, with all the powers of the day in finance, the media and government all colaborating on the Remain side youd have to be naive to think vote rigging is impossible.  the people regulating the collection and storage of postal votes aswell as those moving votes from polling station are not immune from corruption.

public opinion is generally on the Leave side, very few of those who are voting Remain give a sh1t about the EU but still consensus and apathy generally dictate how elections pan out.  theres MPs who were voted for with majorities in the thousands who spent 100k+ on expenses like egyptian silk curtains and importing leather chaise longue sofas from Paris.

one of the primary arguements when we voted on a proportional representation system was 'why should we make the voting system too complicated, people will get confused' and of course the great brittish public turned out and voted 2/1 in agreement that we're too thick to figure out PR.

£ has gone to $1.49 for the first time today. Been solid all morning.

1-9 remain 11-2 leave , 365 looks like its a done deal

there are exit polls paid for by big institutional investors/hedge funds.  Hence the city prices as the primary info from which the books are setting prices.

it's still very close.  6/1 is not exactly a massive long shot; they still don't really know, they just think they do.

these chocs are not based on the final polls - these are on exit polls.

To me it seems a case that inside the pro leave groups, leave still only gets like 65:35% of support, but inside the pro remain groups it's like 95:5%.

so these moves this morning are the square mile secret polls then ?

Not saying its not being done as pound up 1.6%. Just question how accurate it can be.

agree it's not accurate - it's a sample with a margin for error - but it's clearly felt to be a valid exercise (clever people are prepared to pay for the data).

if it were me I would choose just 3 polling booths in Grimsby.

how would you choose yours?

Exit polls are no different to ordinary polls - you ask a few people then extrapolate. All polls are similarly open to error (either way). What they will do is estimate the expected make-up of a polling station depending on location, then ask a few hundred people how they voted. That method has many flaws, but is probably the best available.

The £/$ is up, but the $ is also down against other currencies so that will make it look worse than it is. It looks to me like the currency markets hae priced in a Remain win and are carrying on as normal. The only indicator to watch for is a sudden drop.

Of the about 50 people I know voting, only 1 is voting leave. But hardly any of them will have said anything voicing their opinion anywhere.
The sad fact of this statement is that the majority of people I know voting Remain don't really know why they are voting that way and when pressed on the issues have very little appreciation of what it is they are voting for. All they know is that they don't like Farage and don't want Boris as PM. It saddens me greatly that there are people in this country - and there are loads - who are too stupid or lazy to look at the issues and think for themselves (btw I'm not getting at Remainers who have made their decision 'correctly').

n88uk
23 Jun 16 11:24
Is public opinion really on the leave side, I guess we will see, but it's my feeling that leave side generally just speak louder and are more outspoken.

public opinion and how the public votes are surprisingly at odds with each other.  thats not just me basing it on anecodtal evidence of asking a bloke in the pub, pollsters all year round collect data on questions like 'do you trust david cameron' or 'should tuition fees be abolished' and even though the opinion polls are against the government of the day, people still turn out and vote for them.

throughout this campaign pollsters have asked questions like 'do you think the uk is in control of immigration?' with a massive % of people saying no or 'should an eu court over-rule a uk court', again with most people by a big margin saying no.  ask the same people are they voting to leave the eu on june 23rd and somehow it becomes 50-50 as people generally go with the status quo.


in scotland something like 75% of 10,000 in edinburgh and the east of all places said scotland should have full fiscal autonomy with regards to spending and taxation, yet the city was heavily in favour of voting No.