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Politics
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These 179 comments are related to the topic:
The move for leave has started? 4.2 to 3.55
The move for leave has started? 4.2 to 3.55
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Replies: 179
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Sounds like you had a nightmare too Zen.It finished me with American Racing especially Dirt to m8.Top Man Zen
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Who gives a fcuk about, Gove and Duncan Smith. Where do you think the flab comes from on exit. Put the case, that the Financials have modeled for bias by error and bias by design in public opinion polls and monte carloed it out with reference to their own private polls, and calculated that the public polls were a constant 5%ish wrong in favour of that would make stay something around 6/4, (that is without going near excel to calculate it). But the actual price is 7/2 the last I looked, how is this possible when recent opinion polls make the price either evens, or bits on or bits against.
There is far too much built into the price by assuming that voters will always favour the status quo, this is only the third referendum voted on by the entire UK. I have been backing at prices in excess of 3.75 and laid a lot off at 2.5ish, this week to take a nice percentage to small money. Burlington Bertie now boys get on then lay off when the finacials start to get nervous just before polling opens. |
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Could be just about right RP.Fingers crossed.
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Plenty of EU over-supply in Newark with Knowhow having their Distribution centre there. Is 24/7 Recruitment still running the show?
I know Newark well Real Deal, does it still stink of burnt sugar and sewage? |
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Yes m8 it still stinks the same.But this time of the year just sewage,cause they process the Sugar Beat from Say September through to Aprilish.
Newark is alo an anagram of W anker as well. I don't know the agencies there it's about 16 miles away. The 2 cancerous Work Agencies that run 1000's of workers in our rural area are Staffline & Ambitions.They are just basically modern day Slave Traders. |
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I don't support either side, I am not in the UK, I just think the 4.2 exit is wrong. but at a National and International level exit seems a zero sum game. You have to pay to play the market and exit seems to have few chances on decent access the EFTA, far worse than say Norway who the EU is wooing and the finger is close to the ring, they will nail the UK like they nailed Greece.
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That Knowhow place looks like about a mile long.It's huge in the old Days that would have employed nearly everyone unskilled in the area & I bet 5% are not Local Folks & no contracts other than Zero.
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I do a lot of Deep Sea Fishing.I earn my living supplying Sea Tackle online.
Everyone of the 100's of People that Fish the Sea for Fun that I know.Not commercially are all voting out.They believe that out we will be catching Cod 20lb + from the Shore again as we did in the 60's & 70's. Everyone now goes to Norway for the really Big abundant fishing.With our fisheries back.It will be the same again in 10 years. |
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Bookies deliberately making it look one sided to lay heavy bets on remain as if it is unbeatable.
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I don't want to get into an argument here but reason that there a maybe nobody local in a plant is because of the EU, zero hours contracts are illegal in most European countries, the UK has laws more favorable to economic immigration than any other EU state.
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Spot on RP,If the French don't like an EU ruling they just ignore it.If we had the same approach I would be more likely to be a little more Pro than I am.But we cuddle & Gold plate every single directive.
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Of course you don't obey the directives, the EU have nobody on the ground to enforce them, unless somebody takes a case above their own Supreme Court the EU doesn't hear about it unless there is systemic abuse that one Country complains.
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Absolutely amazing that Britain has won so many wars and battles, yet a single murder is going to bring down our Kingdom
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Got it in 1 J.It was going to be a walkover before m8.
But if they havn't cheated a couple of million votes.We can still do this 100%. |
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If leave wins you may have little choice but to come back Juicel - unless you have taken citizenship of whichever glass house it is you currently reside in! 1.2 and 5.7 now so 4.5 was obv too small it seems - now is the time to back if you want - 7.8 for the 45-50% which I might have to avail myself of.
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high turnout +75% and +80% are the bets imo.
guy at our polling station 30 minutes ago said it's much busier than a GE. I'm on these bets anyway so probably confirmation bias in my case but it felt like a lot of people were out and about. |
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price remain is 1.19
and the pound has been strong v the dollar the last 90 minutes. clearly institutional money is not worried (yet). |
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Where is the polling station? A working class leave area or a champagne socialist remain area?
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Pound up 1.2% now
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Scottish referendum was 84% turnout for the record and last year's GE was 66%
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Where is the polling station? A working class leave area or a champagne socialist remain area?
neither |
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75 per cent turnout ? I doubt it will be that high
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of course - it's 5/1 plus 75% and more than 12/1 plus 80%. so doubting it is the default.
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Maybe 70 per cent tops turnout , mind you the weather is ok the Labour vote more likely to get out
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a high turnout does kind of fit with current in/out chocs and the conventional wisdom around the biggest threat to Remain being low turnout.
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right ok the betting on it sorry , I would guess between 65 and 75
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Not sure about that because I think a lot of working class labour voters are for leave
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Scotland ref was 84% - this is the English version in many ways and there appears to have been a high degree of public engagement in the process (this is a personal impression of facebook/work conversations) and in no way to be confused with a scientific judgement!). I wont be surprised to collect +75%
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What price was over 75 per cent
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you can still get 6.0 on here. There's been loads matched plus 10.0 and bits matched 17.0
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Has Remain weighed in yet?
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on 365 its 1-8 remain 5-1 leave that doesn't sound right to me
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either that or its a **** ballot.
 Shirley not |
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FTSE 100 up 1.85% as I type.
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I only said ****
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2-7 remain 5-2 leave that's just for England
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I suspect there will be some fairly sharp moves in all markets - prob both ways as private polls come back later with their (probably incomplete) picture and those that 'know' bet accordingly. If henry candy has a good day at Newmarket I might have a proper play later!
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remain vote percentage 54.5 per cent 8-11 under, 1-1 over
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