Politics
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25 Feb 13
16:48
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Date Joined:
23 Jul 12
The drop from AAA to aa1 or whatever, is long overdue. I have little desire to respond to those that think that is a failure of the UK government to not spend enough of the people's money, or whatever the left sees in this "victory".
Those on the right fearing the slow motion collapse, as the debts get rolled over, the can gets kicked down the road, the printing press gets going, are seeing things progress nastily, as the real actions needed are bottled.
I am not sure any country is quite like the UK. No other nation has 5 hours of property pornography on state broadcast, be it homes under the hammer, in the sun, 6 years after the bubble was supposed to burst. No other nation has 50% of workers on tax credit/housing benefit welfare. No other nation has as much personal debt, low savings and interest only amateur landlords holding deteriorating victorian slum housing and new build rabbit hutches.
We see today 8 million Brits have NO savings, 15 million not even thinking about it, half a nation on the edge. those with capital, the grey, are not putting it into banks to fund true capitalism and investment, but to speculate on housing or to subsidise their children's basic living. A nation heading to poverty.
the central bank looks to print MORE money, to give to bankrupt institutions or allow the people to buy tat from china.
I dont know what the next 10 years holds, but those slamming Osborne for being too "tough" in restricting tax credit increases to only 1%, or whatever, are just walking into catastrophe.
We will see prices rise due to the sterling drip drip, and further pressures on the overdue cuts in welfare come April.
Some firmer actions in 2007, to raise interest rates, let the overindebted lose their goddamn houses would have prevented ALL of this. It is a tragedy.
Those on the right fearing the slow motion collapse, as the debts get rolled over, the can gets kicked down the road, the printing press gets going, are seeing things progress nastily, as the real actions needed are bottled.
I am not sure any country is quite like the UK. No other nation has 5 hours of property pornography on state broadcast, be it homes under the hammer, in the sun, 6 years after the bubble was supposed to burst. No other nation has 50% of workers on tax credit/housing benefit welfare. No other nation has as much personal debt, low savings and interest only amateur landlords holding deteriorating victorian slum housing and new build rabbit hutches.
We see today 8 million Brits have NO savings, 15 million not even thinking about it, half a nation on the edge. those with capital, the grey, are not putting it into banks to fund true capitalism and investment, but to speculate on housing or to subsidise their children's basic living. A nation heading to poverty.
the central bank looks to print MORE money, to give to bankrupt institutions or allow the people to buy tat from china.
I dont know what the next 10 years holds, but those slamming Osborne for being too "tough" in restricting tax credit increases to only 1%, or whatever, are just walking into catastrophe.
We will see prices rise due to the sterling drip drip, and further pressures on the overdue cuts in welfare come April.
Some firmer actions in 2007, to raise interest rates, let the overindebted lose their goddamn houses would have prevented ALL of this. It is a tragedy.
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where the low savings figures come from.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/feb/25/millions-britons-without-future-savings |
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Dont worry, The bankers are still getting their £1m + bonus's
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You could be describing any Mediterranean country, France or the United States.
All the European countries would print money and lower interest rates if they could and is exactly what the UK and US are doing. And quite honestly Osborne is happy with the downgrade as it weakens the pound. And you are right about 2007 but no political party would have the balls to do the right thing and at the same time commit political suicide. |
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@ RR
Overall, good post, and I do agree, a tragedy indeed. If however, your conclusion is that FIRMER actions and HIGHER interest rates could have prevented all this, then you couldn't be more wrong. The ONLY thing that prevented the global financial system from collapsing was the FED (no else matters) stepping in with LOOSER monetary policy (drowning the financial system with liquidity) and dropping their interest rate to ZERO (ZIRP). I don't think you quite grasped that what was at stake was a lot more important than "the overburdened" losing their houses. It was about everyone loosing everything, chaos and blood in the streets. |
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Good to see you back Ronnie, hope it wasn`t a short stay in penitentiary
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You could be describing any Mediterranean country, France or the United States.
Italy has high savings rates, export just about what it imports, and is close to a structural surplus. Its problems are more linked to corruption and high historic debt, of which UK has relatively little. None of those countries have interest only mortgages or tribes of amateur BTL ****s keeping the housing bubble afloat. US has seen 50% falls, France has very low wage to borrowing mortgages, there are mountainous differences. I do not believe these countries have a nation glued to wall to wall property porn, and 50% of working people on tax credits and housing benefit. The US has imported Simon Cowell, but not the kant off Homes Under the Hammer, cos our market has been slaughtered. I do accept issues with all these nations printy printy and spending more than is coming in, but in terms of the POPULACE hanging on by their fingernails, going to bank of mom and dad even when 40, going to Wonga.Com, the UK DOES have its peculiarities, and it makes me uneasy for your nation. |
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unusually shane, my absence was self enforced. i was beginning to bore myself, not being intelligent and just being nasty to some pretty harmless people, so thought the decent thing was to leave for a bit.
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quite right!
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only joking
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Yes if we'd have let the economy go to the dogs in 2007 it would be flying now.
These are the thoughts of a madman. Like an ailing company that's been taken over and scaled down with most of its employees thrown on the scrap heap. The profitable bits left might be doing well, but the debris and hardship left behind is staggering. The hillbilly seems obsessed with property prices, but there is more to an economy than the price of houses and the money owed on them. We spend too much and pay ourselves too much, until that is corrected we'll continue down apace, and then more gradually after it has been addressed. The UK is finished, the better off had better make the most of what is left. |
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Crappen is contradicting himself as usual. saying that it is the words of a madman to ask for the "economy to go to the dogs", proclaim the right steps to have been taken but yet conclude the "UK is finished, the better off had better make the most of what is left".
For his information i did not ask for the economy to go to the dogs, but for the overindebted to face the true cost of their actions. which is not the same. Capital is what is left after production. Profits for companies, savings for individuals. In 2007 there was plenty of both. The action to reduce interest rates to zero has done nothing but decapitalise the economy, and left it in this zombie state, carrying too much debt and dissipating true wealth. He tries to get out of the gutter by rightly proclaiming that there is more to an economy than the price of houses and the money owed on them. but not recognising that as far as the UK economy goes, that seems to be where the economy is. and it is the actions of central bank and low interest rates that has created and sustained it. |
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So what would have happened if you had let the economy go to the dogs in 2007?
I assume you mean to let the banks fall. The answer is you don't know, you can only guess. Here's my guess, the whole shooting match would have packed up, and now we'd still be cleaning up the mess to get back to even the mess we were in in 2007 with everyone poorer as a result. And even further away from recovery than we are now. |
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I can’t even imagine the mayhem and chaos
that would have happened if the banks had packed up. Yet the hillbilly can only say ‘’bring it on.’’ He’s as mad as a hatter. |
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Crappen, there are numerous examples of bubbles being burst in living memory. Of bank failings.
Iceland, Estonia, the 1990s ERM fall out in the UK, all of which was painful for sure, but 6 years later, things had improved and recovered. Because they let the market set the interest and exchange rate. My god Germany recovered from the war, all by ignoring the same Keynesian advice of price fixing and printing. cos the krauts remembered how that ran before. Britain was richer in 2007 than 2013. There was capital. There are nearly as many people in the UK with mortgages fully paid off than with a mortgage at all. there are millions affording rent. Many homeowners with mortgages are solvent. The band of overindebted and speculative mortgagees are smaller than you imagine. If interest rates were kept at 2% above inflation, and mortgage companies had their margins above that, charging 8-9% then only the very fringes would have been repossessed. and their houses could be bought by working people currently paying $1,200 a month rent, and old people with money in the bank. Dave in a gold 4x4 renting out 30 homes all secured on one purchase and then MEWed to the gunnels, on the advice of Terry down the pub would have got raped. but the economy would be great because Dave contributed nothing and was not rich to begin with. he was just an ass. |
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the bailout of Northern Rock, although wrong, is gladly failing into the irrelevance it was, the trumped up building society.
UK is not broke because of the bank bailout. that is over, they shouldnt have done it but it is done. the low interest rates, lack of savings, the belief government spending is the answer, not production, that printed money is the answer, not capital. the housing debt, personal debt, government debt, huge welfare bills, these are the criminals. fred the shred can retire in peace. it is yesterday's news. |
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@ RR
Your posts are a mishmash of good and bad ideas, of correct and incorrect statements, and of reality and fiction.......which makes it very hard to deconstruct what you are posting and point you in the right direction. Also, your beliefs seem to be mostly drawn from your political leanings as opposed to a sound understanding of economics. First and foremost, there hasn't been real organic wealth created in the economy for a long time now......it has all been all inflation, that has been hidden from view for this and many other reasons. When real inflation is running around 8pc, and GDP growth is reported at less than 4pc (significantly less now) but the GDP deflator used was 2pc, then I don't have to have a PhD in Economics to figure out that real growth is fiction. Second, the financial system is indeed in a zombie state kept on life support by the loose monetary policy of central banks but the alternative (FIRMER actions, HIGHER interest rates, according to you) would have been totally catastrophic leading to an unprecedented collapse........complete with riots and blood in the streets. I still don't think you understand the gravity of what that really means and what the consequences would be had the global financial system went down. Third, there can be no organic growth with cheap oil gone. That's why despite the central banks exploding their balance sheets, we are where we still are. So this notion of had they done this, or if they do that now, then growth in the economy would be just around the corner and we'd return to "normal" is totally misguided. Stagnation at best *IS* the new normal, it's just that they haven't bothered to tell you yet. |
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i dont get the personel debt its always been there, be it mortgages,loans ,cards people have always been indebted,if they arnt bang goes your housing market,car factories,home extensions,holiday companies,luxury goods companies,these buisness,s are modeled on people taking debt on,
one of the problems at the moment is people are scared and paying debt down |
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People can't get mortgages with interest rates as low as they are now let alone even higher.
The problem has been raising the deposits. You mention Germany. West Germany rose from the dead on the back of American aid. How did East Germany make out after the war? What 1990s ERM fall out? We went all one way after we came out, the stock market soared the day after and the days after that. |
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West Germany rose from the dead by production and by ignoring yankee calls to price fix and all sorts of Keynesian advice.
the UK got plenty of cheap yankee money, but used it to build the NHS and social housing, and it is bearing the costs now. Germany and Japan built factories, which is why the Ruhr valley does not look like Accrington. if Germany boomed purely for having cheap money shoved at it, then the UK, US, Greece etc should be doing ok at the moment, cos it has had trillions shoved at it. but it is not, is it. East Germany was always subsidised, and remained as poor as Greece. What 1990s ERM fall out? precisely. those nasty Conservatives saying "unemployment price worth paying" and allowing the market to set interest rates, and not caring about a housing bubble popping all showed the way. it hardly causes a blip, because the TRUE economy, based on production, does not care one jot what happens to Dave and his proberdee portfolio. |
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I think we’ve had a close call, but we’re making the best of the inevitable decline that started a long while back.
Free world trade has seen our manufacturing exported to the East, and importing labour has made matters even worse for unemployment. We’ll never get back on an even keel but we won’t sink either. We’ll just see our standard of living for most anyway, continue to fall. With an ever growing very expensive underclass. Who cares anyway, look after number one has always been a good maxim, because one thing’s for sure, no one else will. |
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and it is perfectly reasonable asking for a 10% deposit to buy a house.
it is having savings earn 0.0001%, and ensuring house prices are kept artificially high by being priced on what rental yield is on a highly levereaged investment on artificially low interest rates that causes the problem. by paying rents inflated by housing benefits robbing disposable incomes. it is the WHOLE system working against the potential FTB, and it is unethical and it helps nobody. all to help 5% of mortgage holders basically trading as insolvent if the market was allowed to operate. the whole thing is being messed up to keep them going on like zombies. it is madness. |
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the UK got plenty of cheap yankee money, but used it to build the NHS and social housing, and it is bearing the costs now.
Agreed, and the Attlee government was replaced by the Conservatives at the next election. |
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Dr Crappen thinks he is all right, with his slum portfolio, he is happy with a slow decline. he is grey haired and gets free bus pass in Wolverhampton.
others with more fight in their belly, with longer to live, know the system is the problem, not the innate imagination, drive and skills of the British. 99% of world inventions are still yankee or british. Indians and Chinese have ALWAYS worked cheap, have ALWAYS numbered BILLIONS. have you seen their movies? to give in, for what? cos we have a credit card bill? because we are afraid to tell spastics they cant have cars? it is INSANE. |
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he is grey haired and gets free bus pass in Wolverhampton.
As good as that? You smooth talking f'cker |
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They can all vote, and they'll continue to vote for parties that promise them the most as we spiral down.
I agree it is insane to pay non producers the same as workers, but they don't see it that way, they couldn't care less as long as Jack's alright. We're breeding an underclass of non-triers with no aspirations except to get by. They are totally useless and will surely increase in numbers as they breed for their benefits. Lol. |
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the UK is adjusting, belatedly, but, so far, incredibly peacefully to its transformation from being the largest, most exploitative and richest Empire in human history to a being a small, relatively inoffensive, island off the North West coast of Europe.
all that's required for the transformation to be completed with tranquility, good grace and a thriving economy is for its politicians to accept their new role as elected local government officials rather than wannabee Emperors. |
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you are admitting to "guessing" all over this thread, and also seem happy with inevitable western decline, on a "look after number one" basis.
we got your number crappen. eat your Meals on Wheels slop, its one step to the care home for you. some people said London couldnt compete with Beijing at the olympics. packed stadia versus empty stadia, real talent versus kants banging on drums. we need warriors for the next stage. i aint listening to gangnam style and watching bollywood for the rest of my life. they dont know jack. |
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"they dont know jack"
Neither do you, Ronnie, but what makes you particularly dangerous is that you think you do. |
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eat your Meals on Wheels slop, its one step to the care home for you.
Well hillbilly, that's more than you'll get Stateside. What will they do with you, put you in a bag with a large brick and throw you in the creek? The poor used to do that with unwanted cats over here in the old days |
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in what way am i particularly dangerous?
i am talking shyte on a forum, we number the million. keep counting them oil drums. |
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crappen, you appear to have the United States confused with Aztecs.
I wont reach grey haired status, i am obese with a huge drug and alcohol dependency and seem to get burnt by gonorrhea every other week. if i see my 30s it will be a miracle. |
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You are dangerous in every way. Dangerous to yourself if you believe half the sh1t you are posting, dangerous to those around you who may be naive enough to listen to you and dangerous to those who disagree with you because they are inevitably exposed to your name calling.
Get a clue, or better yet, spend 5 quid and buy an "economics for idiots" self help book. It would be a big improvement. |
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Who read it to you Melly and how close did you come to cognition?
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The housing crisis will destroy the UK by driving away young talented workers, who despite earning above the average wage can not afford to buy a decent home (and by decent, I mean a standard 2/3 bed house and not some **** bedsit). All that will be left is the underclass.
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Welcome back RR and hope you enjoyed your exile from Betfair massive.
I have to say I agree with you that our biggest problem in the UK is the excessive debt most of the measures you advocate would probably work for the better. However being from the Left I would rather poor people were protected and we still tackled the debt and the financial institutions at once for the mistakes mostly committed by the lenders with money belonging to other people. Printing the money and giving say £100K to each and every citizen to repay the banks for the endebted or spend/invest for those who were prudent seem to me to be the milder pill for everyone to swallow. We would be devaluing the Sterling by 60-80% and prices as well as wages will be expected to rise by the monthly RPI and the state will guarantee the incomes of people on fixed income by making up for the shortfall. The lenders will get back most of their money and very quickly but they will no longer be allowed to lend more than say 50% of our GDP so more businesses will be financed out of our savings and they may have to shed a few staff due to their reduced influence in the economy. Are there any flaws with these measures? |
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Printing the money and giving say £100K to each and every citizen to repay the banks for the endebted or spend/invest for those who were prudent seem to me to be the milder pill for everyone to swallow.
OK boris the game is up, you're either a complete fool or on a wind up - which is it? |
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gas_panic!,
There are plenty of decent affordable homes to be found in the UK without having to move abroad to find one. When has it ever been easy for couples on average income to buy a house in the UK? |
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boris-the-animal 26 Feb 13 09:30
Are there any flaws with these measures? Is this a serious question? |
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"gas_panic!,
There are plenty of decent affordable homes to be found in the UK without having to move abroad to find one. When has it ever been easy for couples on average income to buy a house in the UK?" It has never been easy, but it used to be achievable for most people. Or did house prices trebling in the past decade not make much difference to how hard it is? |