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RonnieReagan
25 Feb 13 16:48
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 2,958 | Blogger: RonnieReagan's blog
The drop from AAA to aa1 or whatever, is long overdue.  I have little desire to respond to those that think that is a failure of the UK government to not spend enough of the people's money, or whatever the left sees in this "victory".

Those on the right fearing the slow motion collapse, as the debts get rolled over, the can gets kicked down the road, the printing press gets going, are seeing things progress nastily, as the real actions needed are bottled.

I am not sure any country is quite like the UK.  No other nation has 5 hours of property pornography on state broadcast, be it homes under the hammer, in the sun, 6 years after the bubble was supposed to burst.  No other nation has 50% of workers on tax credit/housing benefit welfare.   No other nation has as much personal debt, low savings and interest only amateur landlords holding deteriorating victorian slum housing and new build rabbit hutches.

We see today 8 million Brits have NO savings, 15 million not even thinking about it, half a nation on the edge.  those with capital, the grey, are not putting it into banks to fund true capitalism and investment, but to speculate on housing or to subsidise their children's basic living.  A nation heading to poverty.

the central bank looks to print MORE money, to give to bankrupt institutions or allow the people to buy tat from china. 

I dont know what the next 10 years holds, but those slamming Osborne for being too "tough" in restricting tax credit increases to only 1%, or whatever, are just walking into catastrophe.

We will see prices rise due to the sterling drip drip, and further pressures on the overdue cuts in welfare come April. 

Some firmer actions in 2007, to raise interest rates, let the overindebted lose their goddamn houses would have prevented ALL of this.  It is a tragedy.

Sad
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Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 6:39 PM GMT
You could be describing any Mediterranean country, France or the United States.

Italy has high savings rates, export just about what it imports, and is close to a structural surplus.  Its problems are more linked to corruption and high historic debt, of which UK has relatively little.

None of those countries have interest only mortgages or tribes of amateur BTL ****s keeping the housing bubble afloat.  US has seen 50% falls, France has very low wage to borrowing mortgages, there are mountainous differences.

I do not believe these countries have a nation glued to wall to wall property porn, and 50% of working people on tax credits and housing benefit. 

The US has imported Simon Cowell, but not the kant off Homes Under the Hammer, cos our market has been slaughtered. 

I do accept issues with all these nations printy printy and spending more than is coming in, but in terms of the POPULACE hanging on by their fingernails, going to bank of mom and dad even when 40, going to Wonga.Com, the UK DOES have its peculiarities, and it makes me uneasy for your nation.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 6:42 PM GMT
unusually shane, my absence was self enforced.  i was beginning to bore myself, not being intelligent and just being nasty to some pretty harmless people, so thought the decent thing was to leave for a bit.
Report lfc1971 February 25, 2013 6:44 PM GMT
quite right!
Report lfc1971 February 25, 2013 6:45 PM GMT
only jokingHappy
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 6:50 PM GMT
Yes if we'd have let the economy go to the dogs in 2007 it would be flying now.
These are the thoughts of a madman.

Like an ailing company that's been taken over and scaled down with most of its employees thrown on the scrap heap.
The profitable bits left might be doing well, but the debris and hardship left behind is staggering.   

The hillbilly seems obsessed with property prices, but there is more to an economy than the price of houses and the money owed on them.

We spend too much and pay ourselves too much, until that is corrected we'll continue down apace, and then more gradually after it has been addressed.

The UK is finished, the better off had better make the most of what is left.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 7:00 PM GMT
Crappen is contradicting himself as usual.  saying that it is the words of a madman to ask for the "economy to go to the dogs", proclaim the right steps to have been taken but yet conclude the "UK is finished, the better off had better make the most of what is left".

For his information i did not ask for the economy to go to the dogs, but for the overindebted to face the true cost of their actions.  which is not the same.

Capital is what is left after production.  Profits for companies, savings for individuals.  In 2007 there was plenty of both.

The action to reduce interest rates to zero has done nothing but decapitalise the economy, and left it in this zombie state, carrying too much debt and dissipating true wealth.

He tries to get out of the gutter by rightly proclaiming that  there is more to an economy than the price of houses and the money owed on them.  but not recognising that as far as the UK economy goes, that seems to be where the economy is.  and it is the actions of central bank and low interest rates that has created and sustained it.
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 7:13 PM GMT
So what would have happened if you had let the economy go to the dogs in 2007?

I assume you mean to let the banks fall.

The answer is you don't know, you can only guess.

Here's my guess, the whole shooting match would have packed up, and now we'd still be cleaning up the mess to get back to even the mess we were in in 2007 with everyone poorer as a result.
And even further away from recovery than we are now.
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 7:19 PM GMT
I can’t even imagine the mayhem and chaos
that would have happened if the banks had packed up.

Yet the hillbilly can only say ‘’bring it on.’’

He’s as mad as a hatter.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 7:22 PM GMT
Crappen, there are numerous examples of bubbles being burst in living memory.  Of bank failings.

Iceland, Estonia, the 1990s ERM fall out in the UK, all of which was painful for sure, but 6 years later, things had improved and recovered.  Because they let the market set the interest and exchange rate.  My god Germany recovered from the war, all by ignoring the same Keynesian advice of price fixing and printing.  cos the krauts remembered how that ran before.

Britain was richer in 2007 than 2013.  There was capital.  There are nearly as many people in the UK with mortgages fully paid off than with a mortgage at all.  there are millions affording rent.  Many homeowners with mortgages are solvent.

The band of overindebted and speculative mortgagees are smaller than you imagine.  If interest rates were kept at 2% above inflation, and mortgage companies had their margins above that, charging 8-9% then only the very fringes would have been repossessed. 

and their houses could be bought by working people currently paying $1,200 a month rent, and old people with money in the bank.  Dave in a gold 4x4 renting out 30 homes all secured on one purchase and then MEWed to the gunnels, on the advice of Terry down the pub would have got raped. 

but the economy would be great because Dave contributed nothing and was not rich to begin with.  he was just an ass.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 7:26 PM GMT
the bailout of Northern Rock, although wrong, is gladly failing into the irrelevance it was, the trumped up building society.

UK is not broke because of the bank bailout.  that is over, they shouldnt have done it but it is done. 

the low interest rates, lack of savings, the belief government spending is the answer, not production, that printed money is the answer, not capital.  the housing debt, personal debt, government debt, huge welfare bills, these are the criminals.

fred the shred can retire in peace.  it is yesterday's news.
Report Menelaus February 25, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
@ RR

Your posts are a mishmash of good and bad ideas, of correct and incorrect statements, and of reality and fiction.......which makes it very hard to deconstruct what you are posting and point you in the right direction. Also, your beliefs seem to be mostly drawn from your political leanings as opposed to a sound understanding of economics.

First and foremost, there hasn't been real organic wealth created in the economy for a long time now......it has all been all inflation, that has been hidden from view for this and many other reasons. When real inflation is running around 8pc, and GDP growth is reported at less than 4pc (significantly less now) but the GDP deflator used was 2pc, then I don't have to have a PhD in Economics to figure out that real growth is fiction.

Second, the financial system is indeed in a zombie state kept on life support by the loose monetary policy of central banks but the alternative (FIRMER actions, HIGHER interest rates, according to you) would have been totally catastrophic leading to an unprecedented collapse........complete with riots and blood in the streets. I still don't think you understand the gravity of what that really means and what the consequences would be had the global financial system went down.

Third, there can be no organic growth with cheap oil gone. That's why despite the central banks exploding their balance sheets, we are where we still are. So this notion of had they done this, or if they do that now, then growth in the economy would be  just around the corner and we'd return to "normal" is totally misguided. Stagnation at best *IS* the new normal, it's just that they haven't bothered to tell you yet.
Report 1st time poster February 25, 2013 7:35 PM GMT
i dont get the personel debt its always been there, be it mortgages,loans ,cards people have always been indebted,if they arnt bang goes your housing market,car factories,home extensions,holiday companies,luxury goods companies,these buisness,s are modeled on people taking debt on,
one of the problems at the moment is people are scared and paying debt down
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 7:37 PM GMT
People can't get mortgages with interest rates as low as they are now let alone even higher.

The problem has been raising the deposits.

You mention Germany.
West Germany rose from the dead on the back of American aid.
How did East Germany make out after the war? 

What 1990s ERM fall out?
We went all one way after we came out, the stock market soared the day after and the days after that.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
West Germany rose from the dead by production and by ignoring yankee calls to price fix and all sorts of Keynesian advice. 

the UK got plenty of cheap yankee money, but used it to build the NHS and social housing, and it is bearing the costs now.  Germany and Japan built factories, which is why the Ruhr valley does not look like Accrington. 

if Germany boomed purely for having cheap money shoved at it, then the UK, US, Greece etc should be doing ok at the moment, cos it has had trillions shoved at it.  but it is not, is it.

East Germany was always subsidised, and remained as poor as Greece.

What 1990s ERM fall out?

precisely.  those nasty Conservatives saying "unemployment price worth paying" and allowing the market to set interest rates, and not caring about a housing bubble popping all showed the way.  it hardly causes a blip, because the TRUE economy, based on production, does not care one jot what happens to Dave and his proberdee portfolio.
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
I think we’ve had a close call, but we’re making the best of the inevitable decline that started a long while back.
Free world trade has seen our manufacturing exported to the East, and importing labour has made matters even worse for unemployment.
We’ll never get back on an even keel but we won’t sink either.
We’ll just see our standard of living for most anyway, continue to fall. With an ever growing very expensive underclass.

Who cares anyway, look after number one has always been a good maxim, because one thing’s for sure, no one else will.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 7:52 PM GMT
and it is perfectly reasonable asking for a 10% deposit to buy a house. 

it is having savings earn 0.0001%, and ensuring house prices are kept artificially high by being priced on what rental yield is on a highly levereaged investment on artificially low interest rates that causes the problem.  by paying rents inflated by housing benefits robbing disposable incomes.  it is the WHOLE system working against the potential FTB, and it is unethical and it helps nobody. 

all to help 5% of mortgage holders basically trading as insolvent if the market was allowed to operate.   the whole thing is being messed up to keep them going on like zombies.  it is madness.
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
the UK got plenty of cheap yankee money, but used it to build the NHS and social housing, and it is bearing the costs now.

Agreed, and the Attlee government was replaced by the Conservatives at the next election.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 7:55 PM GMT
Dr Crappen thinks he is all right, with his slum portfolio, he is happy with a slow decline.  he is grey haired and gets free bus pass in Wolverhampton.

others with more fight in their belly, with longer to live, know the system is the problem, not the innate imagination, drive and skills of the British.

99% of world inventions are still yankee or british.

Indians and Chinese have ALWAYS worked cheap, have ALWAYS numbered BILLIONS.

have you seen their movies? 

to give in, for what?  cos we have a credit card bill?  because we are afraid to tell spastics they cant have cars?

it is INSANE.
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 7:59 PM GMT
he is grey haired and gets free bus pass in Wolverhampton.

As good as that?

You smooth talking f'cker
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 8:09 PM GMT
They can all vote, and they'll continue to vote for parties that promise them the most as we spiral down.

I agree it is insane to pay non producers the same as workers, but they don't see it that way, they couldn't care less as long as Jack's alright.

We're breeding an underclass of non-triers with no aspirations except to get by. They are totally useless and will surely increase in numbers as they breed for their benefits.

Lol.
Report gus February 25, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
the UK is adjusting, belatedly, but, so far, incredibly peacefully to its transformation from being the largest, most exploitative and richest Empire in human history to a being a small, relatively inoffensive,  island off the North West coast of Europe.

all that's required for the transformation to be completed with tranquility, good grace and a thriving economy is for its politicians to accept their new role as elected  local government officials rather than wannabee Emperors.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 8:37 PM GMT
you are admitting to "guessing" all over this thread, and also seem happy with inevitable western decline, on a "look after number one" basis.

we got your number crappen.

eat your Meals on Wheels slop, its one step to the care home for you. 

some people said London couldnt compete with Beijing at the olympics.  packed stadia versus empty stadia, real talent versus kants banging on drums.

we need warriors for the next stage.

i aint listening to gangnam style and watching bollywood for the rest of my life.  they dont know jack.
Report Menelaus February 25, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
"they dont know jack"


Neither do you, Ronnie, but what makes you particularly dangerous is that you think you do.
Report Dr Crippen February 25, 2013 8:43 PM GMT
eat your Meals on Wheels slop, its one step to the care home for you.

Well hillbilly, that's more than you'll get Stateside.

What will they do with you, put you in a bag with a large brick and throw you in the creek?

The poor used to do that with unwanted cats over here in the old days
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
in what way am i particularly dangerous?

i am talking shyte on a forum, we number the million.  keep counting them oil drums.
Report RonnieReagan February 25, 2013 8:46 PM GMT
crappen, you appear to have the United States confused with Aztecs. 

I wont reach grey haired status, i am obese with a huge drug and alcohol dependency and seem to get burnt by gonorrhea every other week.  if i see my 30s it will be a miracle.
Report Menelaus February 25, 2013 8:47 PM GMT
You are dangerous in every way. Dangerous to yourself if you believe half the sh1t you are posting, dangerous to those around you who may be naive enough to listen to you and dangerous to those who disagree with you because they are inevitably exposed to your name calling.

Get a clue, or better yet, spend 5 quid and buy an "economics for idiots" self help book. It would be a big improvement.
Report Eeternaloptimist February 25, 2013 9:19 PM GMT
Who read it to you Melly and how close did you come to cognition?
Report gas_panic! February 26, 2013 8:56 AM GMT
The housing crisis will destroy the UK by driving away young talented workers, who despite earning above the average wage can not afford to buy a decent home (and by decent, I mean a standard 2/3 bed house and not some **** bedsit). All that will be left is the underclass.
Report boris-the-animal February 26, 2013 9:30 AM GMT
Welcome back RR and hope you enjoyed your exile from Betfair massive.

I have to say I agree with you that our biggest problem in the UK is the excessive debt most of the measures you advocate would probably work for the better.

However being from the Left I would rather poor people were protected and we still tackled the debt and the financial institutions at once for the mistakes mostly committed by the lenders with money belonging to other people.

Printing the money and giving say £100K to each and every citizen to repay the banks for the endebted or spend/invest for those who were prudent seem to me to be the milder pill for everyone to swallow.

We would be devaluing the Sterling by 60-80% and prices as well as wages will be expected to rise by the monthly RPI and the state will guarantee the incomes of people on fixed income by making up for the shortfall.

The lenders will get back most of their money and very quickly but they will no longer be allowed to lend more than say 50% of our GDP so more businesses will be financed out of our savings and they may have to shed a few staff due to their reduced influence in the economy.

Are there any flaws with these measures?
Report blackburn1 February 26, 2013 9:39 AM GMT
Printing the money and giving say £100K to each and every citizen to repay the banks for the endebted or spend/invest for those who were prudent seem to me to be the milder pill for everyone to swallow.

OK boris the game is up, you're either a complete fool or on a wind up - which is it?
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 9:41 AM GMT
gas_panic!,
There are plenty of decent affordable homes to be found in the UK without having to move abroad to find one.

When has it ever been easy for couples on average income to buy a house in the UK?
Report Nocash February 26, 2013 9:42 AM GMT
boris-the-animal     26 Feb 13 09:30 
Are there any flaws with these measures?

Is this a serious question?
Report gas_panic! February 26, 2013 9:46 AM GMT
"gas_panic!,
There are plenty of decent affordable homes to be found in the UK without having to move abroad to find one.

When has it ever been easy for couples on average income to buy a house in the UK?"


It has never been easy, but it used to be achievable for most people. Or did house prices trebling in the past decade not make much difference to how hard it is?
Report Nocash February 26, 2013 9:50 AM GMT
Dr Crippen     26 Feb 13 09:41 

When has it ever been easy for couples on average income to buy a house in the UK?

OK. Let's use the old basic formulae for affordability, What was it 3 times husbands income and 1 times the wifes.

Let's put average wage at £27,000 therefore basically 4 times £27,000 = £108,000.
What's the average house price, around £170,000?

I agree it was never easy for the average couple, nor was it meant to be. Unfortunately for many it's more a question of being nigh impossible.
Report boris-the-animal February 26, 2013 9:54 AM GMT
No Cash

Yes I am really interested if you could tell what problems there will be when incomes are pegged with inflation.

Please don't just bring examples like Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe who had war reparations to pay and trade sanctions against them respectively.

Obama did print money and gave it to citizens with his stimulus even if the sums involved were quite modest.
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 10:18 AM GMT
I'd better explain what average means, because one or two people don't seem to know.

The average figure is made up of the highest prices and the lowest prices.

So our house buyers would not be choosing an average priced house.
They would be seeking a below average priced house, of which there has to be many in the UK.

Happy to help.
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 10:26 AM GMT
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40222388.html

There you go, a three bedroom house for under £80,000, and there are many cheaper than that.

Our average couple could afford to buy lots of the properties on the market.

And remember our lesson about averages, there are many couple getting far more than the average wage who could afford to pay a deal more.
Report gas_panic! February 26, 2013 10:28 AM GMT
House prices have trebled in the past decade- wages have not even doubled- is this a problem or not?
Report boris-the-animal February 26, 2013 10:32 AM GMT
Gas Panic

I agree with you house price inflation is something we need to tackle urgently as well.

The thing is this phenomenon is not recent and has been repeating it self for the past 40 years no government has done anyhing about it.

The average home according to the ONS used to cost £5K in 1970 and it quadrupled to £20K in 9 years!!!

It trebled its value again in 11 years when it stood at £60K in 1990. After the crash it only increased modestly to £76K in 97

The prices again trebled in the next 10 years to £223K in 2007.

The state need to make the banks lend more sensibly and reinstitute rents control and perhaps ban interest only mortgages in order to limit the increase the prices of the BTL market as well.
Report RonnieReagan February 26, 2013 10:36 AM GMT
never easy for the average couple to buy a house?

so says someone in their 60s with a portfolio.

I remember talking to a guy in the south east, earned 22k in 1999 as a 25 year old, a decent enough wage but standard for the time for the graduate with 5 years experience.  probably be 32k now.  he bought a house in kent for 57k, using a 6k deposit mostly from a bond given to him by granny dieing.  nothing extreme, but on the ladder at 2.4 x average income.

his father worked as a Freight company, mother never worked, they managed to buy a 4 bedroom house in surrey in the 1980s that is now valued $600k and is only bought by arabs today.

The UK is full of people on 30-40k if not higher, cannot even dream of gettting anything in the SE. 

To ignore this terrible bought about to bail out merely 5% of mortgage holders, most of them investors, is insane.  there are more people with mortgages paid off than have outstanding mortgages, the number of overstretched mortgage holders is still minimal.  get rates up to market levels.
Report Mister E February 26, 2013 10:45 AM GMT
Agree with Ronnie on most of this.

Interest only mortgages are a time bomb waiting to explode.

So are PFIs.

So are our Pension schemes.

So is Power Supply. Centrica have pulled out of the plan to build new generators, can't agree "terms" with the govt.; the French company EDF are the only players left so much for competition. If they pull out we are struggling.


I remember when North sea Oil was discovered; it was going to set us up, 40 years later we are not only heading for a power crisis , we have spent the income and another trillion on top.
Report gas_panic! February 26, 2013 10:50 AM GMT
On IO mortgages:

"Earlier this month Financial Mail revealed that 700,000 borrowers have interest-only mortgages with no means of clearing the debt at the end of the term. A further 400,000 say they have a repayment plan of sorts, but expect it to fall short.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2283315/Weve-driven-brink-ruin--State--Couple-stuck-mortgage-bullied-intimidated-government-agency.html#ixzz2M08GHMkI"


O-oh.
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 10:58 AM GMT
I remember when North sea Oil was discovered; it was going to set us up, 40 years later we are not only heading for a power crisis , we have spent the income and another trillion on top.

Yes Mister E, an island with its foundations built on coal and we've got an energy crisis.

You'd think it would take a genius to manipulate us into that situation.

The words of Aneurin Bevan.
Report Nocash February 26, 2013 11:47 AM GMT
Dr Crippen     26 Feb 13 10:18 
I'd better explain what average means, because one or two people don't seem to know.

The average figure is made up of the highest prices and the lowest prices.

So our house buyers would not be choosing an average priced house.
They would be seeking a below average priced house, of which there has to be many in the UK.

Happy to help.


If only the real world was this simple.
Report Nocash February 26, 2013 11:57 AM GMT
Boris
Printing the money and giving say £100K to each and every citizen to repay the banks for the endebted or spend/invest for those who were prudent seem to me to be the milder pill for everyone to swallow.

Just a few small points I need to clarify, starting with the £100,000. Let's say they buy apartments in Spain, Portugal or France. How does this help our own economy?

What if the immigrants send it back to their families in the country of their birth. How does this help our economy?
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 12:58 PM GMT
I agree with you house price inflation is something we need to tackle urgently as well.

Why?
Report gas_panic! February 26, 2013 4:00 PM GMT
I would be interested to know why you think that a trebling of house prices in the last 10 years has been a good thing?
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 4:15 PM GMT
gas_panic!

You're not trying to put words into my mouth are you?

I haven't said that.......... yet.
Report northernlad5 February 26, 2013 4:28 PM GMT
RR's very much like Rumpelstiltskin - then he woke up!
Report manxy February 26, 2013 4:33 PM GMT
more barney rumble imo.
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 5:08 PM GMT
I would be interested to know why you think that a trebling of house prices in the last 10 years has been a good thing?


Trebling of house prices in the last ten years eh?

Did you just invent that figure for your argument hoping that it would pass as fact?
Report 1st time poster February 26, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
house prices have not trebled in the last decade london apart,i,d guess most houses today are worth roughly what they were worth 10 years ago,hope this helps,try doubled in 20 years and you might be nearer the mark,my hourly rate has also doubled in the same period , but hey carry on spouting shopite if it suits your argument
Report bazzar February 26, 2013 8:31 PM GMT
There is NOTHING GENUINE about you REAGAN!!!!!!!
Report RonnieReagan February 26, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
i,d guess most houses today are worth roughly what they were worth 10 years ago,hope this helps,try doubled in 20 years and you might be nearer the mark,my hourly rate has also doubled in the same period , but hey carry on spouting shopite if it suits your argument

i wish people would just research.

it is the rate of increase in house prices that is treble that of wages, not that prices have trebled. 

From 2001 to 2011 the price of the average home increased by 94%, while wages rose by just 29%
is the truth.

the most significant issue is that in this timescale houses have pretty much flatlined since 2005, that will tell you the insanity of what has happened, and how manipulating interest rates, pumping in housing benefit, part buy, all the scams to keep the bottom end of the market up is just dragging out the inevitable correction to market norms of average housing being 4 times average earnings. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/aug/17/house-prices-rise-faster-wages
Report RonnieReagan February 26, 2013 9:07 PM GMT
and on the day some BofE idiot wants NEGATIVE interest rates, in a nation of interest only mortgage property speculation, to suggest there is no excessive fuelling of a housing bubble is just being a flatearther. 

i wish some of these people would answer honestly that on the wages they would be on today in the roles they had back then, could they afford the same house today they bought on those wages in the 1970s, 80s, 90s. 

if they were working in the south east, starting out now, how would their route to property ownership run.
Report Shanelee1966 February 26, 2013 9:26 PM GMT
Ten years ago my house was worth 90k (price paid) now selling for 130/140k
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 9:26 PM GMT
Another way to look at the rise in house prices in comparison with wages, is not that property prices have outstripped labour, but that UK labour is now worth far less than it was back then.

I’ll certainly go along with that looking at the dopes that we now produce in comparison to the cheap labour that is flooding in from the EU.
Report Shanelee1966 February 26, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
In my area houses what was selling in 2008 for 180k are still fetching 160k today.
Report RonnieReagan February 26, 2013 9:34 PM GMT
I am presuming the stats are taken from a bigger source than Shanelee's road.

can you give us an idea of what you earnt to afford the 90k, and what you think that same salary would be now?  that is the key question shane.

and look at the comparison with 1998.

2003 things were overheating then, late 90s were the last time a healthy market existed, not driven by investors and the odd buyer fuelled by property porn.  2003 greenspan was at his height of cheap credit, and assume you limeys were in on it as well.
Report Dr Crippen February 26, 2013 10:08 PM GMT
What is a normal housing market?

There was a spectacular rise in house prices between 1975 and 1985. Even after inflation is taken into account the market more than tripled.
And then went up another 80% before it dropped back in 1989.

So those rises we had up to 2007 aren’t anything new. 
Neither are the drops, it’s all par for the course.
As an estate agent said to me the last time the market was boiling over ‘’I’ve seen it all before.’’

http://www.allagents.co.uk/house-prices-adjusted/
Report bongo February 26, 2013 10:54 PM GMT
.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f269df52-251d-11e2-86fb-00144feabdc0.html

I found the above article a bit of an eye-opener, especially the comments.
There is no repayment action on over half of the loans in London and the South.

I disagree with Reagan as to whether interest-only should be barred. If an adult wants to walk along the edge of the cliff we should let them however unwise. Putting down around 25% deposit and effectively paying rent to the bank after that seems a common option. In a free market interest-only should be allowed to exist provided everyone knows the risks and there's no bailouts or subsidies offered. Sadly, there is - it's called London rates of Housing Benefit.

Subsidies bugger everything.
Report boris-the-animal February 27, 2013 9:41 AM GMT
No Cash

Just a few small points I need to clarify, starting with the £100,000. Let's say they buy apartments in Spain, Portugal or France. How does this help our own economy?
What if the immigrants send it back to their families in the country of their birth. How does this help our economy?


The money is meant to repay debts first before any spending or investment. Presumably it should be possible for for the state to make credit checks for each taxpayer and have them elect which debts they would have repaid if their debt is higher than the 100K. People on less debt/no debt will have the whole amount in cash and they would be free to invest it the way in the Spanish property bubble.

Immigrants may also be subject to the same rules since they are also taxpayers and Europe will probably not allow us discriminate against them on nationality grounds.

Our economy is helped so far as most people will have most of their debts written off hence they will have higher disposable income and demand will sky rocket since they won't need to service a huge mortgage or credit cards.

So some people will send the money abroad and so what??? There will just be as many foreign investors coming in if we had a booming economy and it is not like we were currently refusing all the Russian or Qatari state money that come to our shores!!!Wink
Report Nocash February 27, 2013 11:44 AM GMT
Our economy is helped so far as most people will have most of their debts written off hence they will have higher disposable income and demand will sky rocket since they won't need to service a huge mortgage or credit cards.

Boris

I'm beginning to warm to your idea.

1. I act irresponsibly and amass debts of £100,000.
2. I wait for the Government to come along with a printing press. They print £100,000 to pay off my debt.
3. I act irresponsibly and amass debts of £100,000.
4. I wait for the Government to come along with a printing press. They print £100,000 to pay off my debt.
5. I act irresponsibly and amass debts of £100,000.
6. I wait for the Government to come along with a printing press. They print £100,000 to pay off my debt.
7. I act irresponsibly and amass debts ................................
Report boris-the-animal February 27, 2013 2:44 PM GMT
No Cash

The issue you are not considering is the system itself is bust and we simply cannot repay a debt of such magnitude and we are bailing out the system itself not specific individuals.

The thing is there will have to be better regulation of the lenders after this debt jubilee otherwise the same process will need to be repeated 20-50years along the line.

The banks should never be allowed to lend to people without the means to repay again.

The central bank has to ensure that the proportion of total debt to GDP is never above 50% when it is close to 500% presently.

Companies need to issue more equities to finance their ventures and rely less on debt.
Report Menelaus February 27, 2013 3:36 PM GMT
boris, if this is a windup, you are failing miserably. If it isn't, it's making you look like a complete fool.

I don't think that there is a single poster on here that hasn't piped up with some sort of example/explanation on how your suggestion is massively naive (if not downright idiotic) yet you keep repeating the same childish idea over and over and over and over again, as if you hadn't even read what others said, and as if by repeating it, it would make it good.

Let me sum it up for you. Your suggestion is stupid. Move on.
Report Shanelee1966 February 27, 2013 4:17 PM GMT
Salary when house bought for 90k was 25k (me) & 20k (mrs)
House value now 135k fookall (me) would have been around 26k & still 20k (mrs)
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 1:00 PM GMT
thank you shane.  honesty from a great man, cutting the bollockios.

so house has increased by 50% and earnings by 2%, or declined if, as seems to be so widespread in the uk males of a certain age seem to have adopted a low paid, subsistence self employment existence.  a third world solution to work as a nation marches towards poverty.

so a house on 2 x joint income (and 4.5 x sole income) has increased to 3 x joint income and more pertinently to me 7 x sole income, and thus unaffordable for the latter.

people on AVERAGE salaries on their OWN could afford average houses in the 1990s and first year or so of the last decade, and it is denying it to say otherwise.  as they should.  who should buy average homes if not those with average earnings?  it is not to be for those speculating on geared investments or lottery winners. 

your example shows this, and the statistics shows this is close to the norm.

it is not DEMAND or WAGES keeping these prices high.  it is a turgid, non moving low transaction market with prices kept high by those that should be struggling bailed out and subsidised by tax credits, housing benefit or low interest rates.
Report gas_panic! February 28, 2013 2:34 PM GMT
Why British prosperity is hobbled by a **** land market

http://centreforeuropeanreform.blogspot.nl/2013/02/why-british-prosperity-is-hobbled-by.html


This situation has far-reaching economic and social consequences for the UK. Massive house price inflation has aggravated the UK’s already high levels of inequality by shifting wealth from the young (and property-less) to the old (and propertied). The poor availability of affordable housing undermines labour mobility – people are unable to move to where jobs are available because they cannot afford accommodation. Those on welfare are discouraged from working (as they then lose access to subsidised housing). Congested, expensive infrastructure combined with pricey commercial property pushes up the cost of business, depresses investment and holds back economic growth.

An economy in which speculation is rewarded and wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of those with property risks stagnation. It faces an uphill battle to hold on to its young or attract skilled immigrants. Britain needs to strike a better balance between the interests of existing property-owners and the rest of the country.
Report Si-K February 28, 2013 4:14 PM GMT
Forgive me people for politically i am young and naive.. BUT

Considering under 2% of UK land is built on.. why can we not build more houses thus lowering the price + creating jobs in the process?

(I know that the 2% figure isnt reliable i.e lots of land not suitable etc) but still a substantial amount to be built upon.

?
Report manxy February 28, 2013 4:26 PM GMT
try see how that 2 percent sits when scotland and wales are off the equation.
Report Si-K February 28, 2013 4:30 PM GMT
what does it come too?
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 4:34 PM GMT
onsidering under 2% of UK land is built on.. why can we not build more houses thus lowering the price + creating jobs in the process?

Because they'll only build houses that they can sell.

And if house prices aren't robust, the lenders won't lend so the builders won't build.

And if the market crashes they won't sell or build any for another ten years.
Everybody will be frightened of getting their fingers burnt.
Report Si-K February 28, 2013 4:36 PM GMT
^Gotcha. n1
Report manxy February 28, 2013 5:16 PM GMT
b0ll0cks, if the gov pumped money into new biulds, you would see the little thats left of your 'green-belts' disappear quicker than a slum-landlords promise to a pensioner, to fix the boiler in winter, when engineers cost the most.
Report Ski-Wiz February 28, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
Some firmer actions in 2007, to raise interest rates, let the overindebted lose their goddamn houses would have prevented ALL of this.  It is a tragedy.

That one would have helped.......but not 'prevented all of this'.

Other measures should have been done in 2007/08.....no minimum wage, no tax credits, no child benefits, etc.
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 5:44 PM GMT
I prefer a green environment to a concrete tip.
If they hadn't flooded the country with cheap imported labour we wouldn't have a housing shortage.

They labour rats voted for a country packed with immigrants so now they can live with them.
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
there is no housing shortage.  people said the same in Las Vegas and Ireland, all those new workers coming into the "tiger economies", it takes the crash to reveal the ghost towns.  the tide to go out to see those hanging with their shrimps out.

there are a million for sale on rightmove, no one is tripping up over homeless people and you dont have far to drive in the UK to see new build areas with big flags that seem to be up for years and years, empty "marina" living in areas from Yorkshire to Medway, where 100% of flats are on "pay half" deals and still struggle.  because the prices are not set by market demand, but subsidised by distortion and bailout to the benefit of the BTL, interest only cretinous crowd.
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 8:51 PM GMT
if there was a "housing shortage" why would the new build developments not be snapped up?  the figures show it is slower than ever recorded, despite all sorts of part buy gimmicks?

if there was a "housing shortage" why would transactions be at very low levels, with properties staying on for longer than ever before sale?  they would be eagerly snapped up.

if the houses at the moment are not selling, if the housebuilders despite their annual "bragging" are struggling against pre 2008 levels, why an earth would the government want to waste taxpayer money by trying to compete with Mrs Bloggs struggling selling via Rightmove and Wimpey struggling to shift developments?

and building in the unbuilt wilderness with no f"cking jobs.
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 9:08 PM GMT
and of course there are more empty homes than genuine homeless, by a factor of 1,000.
Report manxy February 28, 2013 9:08 PM GMT
ronnies getting animated, crippens ducking for cover, and so the cycle continues.
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 9:19 PM GMT
I'm just waiting for the hillbilly to finish, he seems to have an awful lot to say tonight.

I do hope he's not trying to draw me into an argument simply so that he can insult me.

I wouldn't like to think he's trying to do that.
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 9:20 PM GMT
Hillbilly,

You can fack off before you start.
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 9:29 PM GMT
crappen,

hillbillies sit to the east and south of me, Scotch irish stock living in the Appalachians.  i am a westerner, a Great Plains Republican, of Germanic stock.

it is like me calling you a Glaswegian, you Black Country man.

go put on your Slade albums, you Wolverhampton old man.  you see, i stick with geographical accuracy.
Report moisok February 28, 2013 9:34 PM GMT
You wait till the foreigners have completely taken over then you can worry - except if you say you are worried then, they will lock you up.  With the support of the usa who can't even back us over the faulklands -some fkn ally ha ha!!!!
Report manxy February 28, 2013 9:36 PM GMT
very subtle moisok.
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 9:42 PM GMT
when two shrimps are fighting over a plankton, the great white shark swims on.

but let me tell you about Argentina.  i know brits tend to do orange people and 18 year old t!ts rather than international news in their media, but after doing what they always do when they are about to hit their biannual hyperinflation, fix prices, argentina are now banning advertising, so the slickback population doesnt get too hungry for what they are missing.

it is times like these that whatever moustachioed lady is El Presidente kicks up a fuss.  it aint real, noone is invading, and noone cares what Sean Penn thinks.

read it and GASP.  you think your southern latins are in the mess, you wanna come this side to see real dago mess.

http://www.businessinsider.com/argentinas-government-has-imposed-a-bizarre-ban-on-advertising-2013-2
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 9:51 PM GMT
Yes moisok we were well shut of America when we left them to fend for themselves.

Look at them now, they all be speaking Spanish gobbledegook in a few decades.

Mind you the hillbilly isn't too bad - and I see he he likes Slade.

I was in a pub in Bilston once and Noddy was standing at the bar. So you can see I know what I'm talking about. 
I shouted to him at the top of my voice ''HELLO NODDY HOW YOU GOING MATE.'' He replied at the top of his voice ''CAN YOU SPEAK UP MATE I'M A BIT HARD OF HEARING.''

What a kant eh.
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 9:55 PM GMT
Nice little anecdote hillbilly - very interesting.
Report RonnieReagan February 28, 2013 10:12 PM GMT
is that what they tell you in british schools.  that we didnt win the revolutionary war, you voluntarily let us go?  because yorktown wasnt 5 years after the declaration of independence, and you didnt come over for another beat down 50 years later.

but brits dont teach history right.  told last time they were invaded was 1066, ignoring William of Orange storming to the throne in 1689 and dragging your asses out into enlightened trading.  presumably they think James II wasnt overthrown by an invader.

mind you brits also get taught it was the spanish evil to native americans giving them measles and converting them to Christ (former accidental, second saving their souls) ignoring the Brits just slaughtered redskins.  the last of the mohicans meant just that, wipeout, whilst most of south america is still highly indigenous.

and then they tell you National Socialists in Germany, with their state controlled economy were RIGHT WING. 

stick to the orange people and the tits.
Report moisok February 28, 2013 10:14 PM GMT
quite honestly the majority on here are cowards, appeasers and excuse mongers  ha ha -  they know we are deep in the do do but are too scared to say what they think - a bunch of ****!!!!
It clashes with the english - 'we are too polite to complain'  ha ha!!!
Report moisok February 28, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
have you heard how some of them speak in the black country   - 'bin bay winders'     'baint bay winders'

windows for the unconverted -  you are a foreigner if u are born in caunsell but just live up the road ha ha
Report moisok February 28, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
pu$$ies
Report moisok February 28, 2013 10:20 PM GMT
you yanks were just sneaky - just like the nazis - you hid in the woods and wouldn't come out till it was safe

the nazis - came through the woods and instead of having a fair fight went sneakily around the maginot line  (see Dad's army - mainwearing explanation with sgt wilson about the typical nazi trick) ha ha
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 10:40 PM GMT
have you heard how some of them speak in the black country   - 'bin bay winders'     'baint bay winders'

That's strange moisok, I've never heard anyone speak like that.

It's more like ''dem be bey windhas.''

Bisn't it?
Report moisok February 28, 2013 10:42 PM GMT
no not at all not where i woz  and certainly not emphasising the h  in windows no not at all

bin   meaning  they have been bay window   but are not now bay windows  but guess you know this
Report moisok February 28, 2013 10:43 PM GMT
sounds a bit west indian wot use iz saying!!??  ha ha!!!! and you just might be taking de pizz
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 10:52 PM GMT
Betfair ban on de way.
Report Dr Crippen February 28, 2013 11:02 PM GMT
I had a front door fitted last year, plastic door and frame 100mm euro lock £400 cash in hand - red hot bargain.

The gaffer said to me ''a white man would charge you 650 poonds for that.''

I thought, and the rest.

I love these Black Country folks.
Report moisok February 28, 2013 11:03 PM GMT
if you want to see what is wrong with this country see oona king a professional politician who now sits in the house of lords and bangs on about equality and women's rights etc etc 
HOUSE OF LORDS  ffs!!!!
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