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Genuinely frightened for the UK's future

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Replies: 105
By:
Nocash
When: 26 Feb 13 09:50
Dr Crippen     26 Feb 13 09:41 

When has it ever been easy for couples on average income to buy a house in the UK?

OK. Let's use the old basic formulae for affordability, What was it 3 times husbands income and 1 times the wifes.

Let's put average wage at £27,000 therefore basically 4 times £27,000 = £108,000.
What's the average house price, around £170,000?

I agree it was never easy for the average couple, nor was it meant to be. Unfortunately for many it's more a question of being nigh impossible.
By:
boris-the-animal
When: 26 Feb 13 09:54
No Cash

Yes I am really interested if you could tell what problems there will be when incomes are pegged with inflation.

Please don't just bring examples like Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe who had war reparations to pay and trade sanctions against them respectively.

Obama did print money and gave it to citizens with his stimulus even if the sums involved were quite modest.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 10:18
I'd better explain what average means, because one or two people don't seem to know.

The average figure is made up of the highest prices and the lowest prices.

So our house buyers would not be choosing an average priced house.
They would be seeking a below average priced house, of which there has to be many in the UK.

Happy to help.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 10:26
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40222388.html

There you go, a three bedroom house for under £80,000, and there are many cheaper than that.

Our average couple could afford to buy lots of the properties on the market.

And remember our lesson about averages, there are many couple getting far more than the average wage who could afford to pay a deal more.
By:
gas_panic!
When: 26 Feb 13 10:28
House prices have trebled in the past decade- wages have not even doubled- is this a problem or not?
By:
boris-the-animal
When: 26 Feb 13 10:32
Gas Panic

I agree with you house price inflation is something we need to tackle urgently as well.

The thing is this phenomenon is not recent and has been repeating it self for the past 40 years no government has done anyhing about it.

The average home according to the ONS used to cost £5K in 1970 and it quadrupled to £20K in 9 years!!!

It trebled its value again in 11 years when it stood at £60K in 1990. After the crash it only increased modestly to £76K in 97

The prices again trebled in the next 10 years to £223K in 2007.

The state need to make the banks lend more sensibly and reinstitute rents control and perhaps ban interest only mortgages in order to limit the increase the prices of the BTL market as well.
By:
RonnieReagan
When: 26 Feb 13 10:36
never easy for the average couple to buy a house?

so says someone in their 60s with a portfolio.

I remember talking to a guy in the south east, earned 22k in 1999 as a 25 year old, a decent enough wage but standard for the time for the graduate with 5 years experience.  probably be 32k now.  he bought a house in kent for 57k, using a 6k deposit mostly from a bond given to him by granny dieing.  nothing extreme, but on the ladder at 2.4 x average income.

his father worked as a Freight company, mother never worked, they managed to buy a 4 bedroom house in surrey in the 1980s that is now valued $600k and is only bought by arabs today.

The UK is full of people on 30-40k if not higher, cannot even dream of gettting anything in the SE. 

To ignore this terrible bought about to bail out merely 5% of mortgage holders, most of them investors, is insane.  there are more people with mortgages paid off than have outstanding mortgages, the number of overstretched mortgage holders is still minimal.  get rates up to market levels.
By:
Mister E
When: 26 Feb 13 10:45
Agree with Ronnie on most of this.

Interest only mortgages are a time bomb waiting to explode.

So are PFIs.

So are our Pension schemes.

So is Power Supply. Centrica have pulled out of the plan to build new generators, can't agree "terms" with the govt.; the French company EDF are the only players left so much for competition. If they pull out we are struggling.


I remember when North sea Oil was discovered; it was going to set us up, 40 years later we are not only heading for a power crisis , we have spent the income and another trillion on top.
By:
gas_panic!
When: 26 Feb 13 10:50
On IO mortgages:

"Earlier this month Financial Mail revealed that 700,000 borrowers have interest-only mortgages with no means of clearing the debt at the end of the term. A further 400,000 say they have a repayment plan of sorts, but expect it to fall short.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2283315/Weve-driven-brink-ruin--State--Couple-stuck-mortgage-bullied-intimidated-government-agency.html#ixzz2M08GHMkI"


O-oh.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 10:58
I remember when North sea Oil was discovered; it was going to set us up, 40 years later we are not only heading for a power crisis , we have spent the income and another trillion on top.

Yes Mister E, an island with its foundations built on coal and we've got an energy crisis.

You'd think it would take a genius to manipulate us into that situation.

The words of Aneurin Bevan.
By:
Nocash
When: 26 Feb 13 11:47
Dr Crippen     26 Feb 13 10:18 
I'd better explain what average means, because one or two people don't seem to know.

The average figure is made up of the highest prices and the lowest prices.

So our house buyers would not be choosing an average priced house.
They would be seeking a below average priced house, of which there has to be many in the UK.

Happy to help.


If only the real world was this simple.
By:
Nocash
When: 26 Feb 13 11:57
Boris
Printing the money and giving say £100K to each and every citizen to repay the banks for the endebted or spend/invest for those who were prudent seem to me to be the milder pill for everyone to swallow.

Just a few small points I need to clarify, starting with the £100,000. Let's say they buy apartments in Spain, Portugal or France. How does this help our own economy?

What if the immigrants send it back to their families in the country of their birth. How does this help our economy?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 12:58
I agree with you house price inflation is something we need to tackle urgently as well.

Why?
By:
gas_panic!
When: 26 Feb 13 16:00
I would be interested to know why you think that a trebling of house prices in the last 10 years has been a good thing?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 16:15
gas_panic!

You're not trying to put words into my mouth are you?

I haven't said that.......... yet.
By:
northernlad5
When: 26 Feb 13 16:28
RR's very much like Rumpelstiltskin - then he woke up!
By:
manxy
When: 26 Feb 13 16:33
more barney rumble imo.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 17:08
I would be interested to know why you think that a trebling of house prices in the last 10 years has been a good thing?


Trebling of house prices in the last ten years eh?

Did you just invent that figure for your argument hoping that it would pass as fact?
By:
1st time poster
When: 26 Feb 13 17:38
house prices have not trebled in the last decade london apart,i,d guess most houses today are worth roughly what they were worth 10 years ago,hope this helps,try doubled in 20 years and you might be nearer the mark,my hourly rate has also doubled in the same period , but hey carry on spouting shopite if it suits your argument
By:
bazzar
When: 26 Feb 13 20:31
There is NOTHING GENUINE about you REAGAN!!!!!!!
By:
RonnieReagan
When: 26 Feb 13 20:49
i,d guess most houses today are worth roughly what they were worth 10 years ago,hope this helps,try doubled in 20 years and you might be nearer the mark,my hourly rate has also doubled in the same period , but hey carry on spouting shopite if it suits your argument

i wish people would just research.

it is the rate of increase in house prices that is treble that of wages, not that prices have trebled. 

From 2001 to 2011 the price of the average home increased by 94%, while wages rose by just 29%
is the truth.

the most significant issue is that in this timescale houses have pretty much flatlined since 2005, that will tell you the insanity of what has happened, and how manipulating interest rates, pumping in housing benefit, part buy, all the scams to keep the bottom end of the market up is just dragging out the inevitable correction to market norms of average housing being 4 times average earnings. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/aug/17/house-prices-rise-faster-wages
By:
RonnieReagan
When: 26 Feb 13 21:07
and on the day some BofE idiot wants NEGATIVE interest rates, in a nation of interest only mortgage property speculation, to suggest there is no excessive fuelling of a housing bubble is just being a flatearther. 

i wish some of these people would answer honestly that on the wages they would be on today in the roles they had back then, could they afford the same house today they bought on those wages in the 1970s, 80s, 90s. 

if they were working in the south east, starting out now, how would their route to property ownership run.
By:
Shanelee1966
When: 26 Feb 13 21:26
Ten years ago my house was worth 90k (price paid) now selling for 130/140k
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 21:26
Another way to look at the rise in house prices in comparison with wages, is not that property prices have outstripped labour, but that UK labour is now worth far less than it was back then.

I’ll certainly go along with that looking at the dopes that we now produce in comparison to the cheap labour that is flooding in from the EU.
By:
Shanelee1966
When: 26 Feb 13 21:28
In my area houses what was selling in 2008 for 180k are still fetching 160k today.
By:
RonnieReagan
When: 26 Feb 13 21:34
I am presuming the stats are taken from a bigger source than Shanelee's road.

can you give us an idea of what you earnt to afford the 90k, and what you think that same salary would be now?  that is the key question shane.

and look at the comparison with 1998.

2003 things were overheating then, late 90s were the last time a healthy market existed, not driven by investors and the odd buyer fuelled by property porn.  2003 greenspan was at his height of cheap credit, and assume you limeys were in on it as well.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Feb 13 22:08
What is a normal housing market?

There was a spectacular rise in house prices between 1975 and 1985. Even after inflation is taken into account the market more than tripled.
And then went up another 80% before it dropped back in 1989.

So those rises we had up to 2007 aren’t anything new. 
Neither are the drops, it’s all par for the course.
As an estate agent said to me the last time the market was boiling over ‘’I’ve seen it all before.’’

http://www.allagents.co.uk/house-prices-adjusted/
By:
bongo
When: 26 Feb 13 22:54
.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f269df52-251d-11e2-86fb-00144feabdc0.html

I found the above article a bit of an eye-opener, especially the comments.
There is no repayment action on over half of the loans in London and the South.

I disagree with Reagan as to whether interest-only should be barred. If an adult wants to walk along the edge of the cliff we should let them however unwise. Putting down around 25% deposit and effectively paying rent to the bank after that seems a common option. In a free market interest-only should be allowed to exist provided everyone knows the risks and there's no bailouts or subsidies offered. Sadly, there is - it's called London rates of Housing Benefit.

Subsidies bugger everything.
By:
boris-the-animal
When: 27 Feb 13 09:41
No Cash

Just a few small points I need to clarify, starting with the £100,000. Let's say they buy apartments in Spain, Portugal or France. How does this help our own economy?
What if the immigrants send it back to their families in the country of their birth. How does this help our economy?


The money is meant to repay debts first before any spending or investment. Presumably it should be possible for for the state to make credit checks for each taxpayer and have them elect which debts they would have repaid if their debt is higher than the 100K. People on less debt/no debt will have the whole amount in cash and they would be free to invest it the way in the Spanish property bubble.

Immigrants may also be subject to the same rules since they are also taxpayers and Europe will probably not allow us discriminate against them on nationality grounds.

Our economy is helped so far as most people will have most of their debts written off hence they will have higher disposable income and demand will sky rocket since they won't need to service a huge mortgage or credit cards.

So some people will send the money abroad and so what??? There will just be as many foreign investors coming in if we had a booming economy and it is not like we were currently refusing all the Russian or Qatari state money that come to our shores!!!Wink
By:
Nocash
When: 27 Feb 13 11:44
Our economy is helped so far as most people will have most of their debts written off hence they will have higher disposable income and demand will sky rocket since they won't need to service a huge mortgage or credit cards.

Boris

I'm beginning to warm to your idea.

1. I act irresponsibly and amass debts of £100,000.
2. I wait for the Government to come along with a printing press. They print £100,000 to pay off my debt.
3. I act irresponsibly and amass debts of £100,000.
4. I wait for the Government to come along with a printing press. They print £100,000 to pay off my debt.
5. I act irresponsibly and amass debts of £100,000.
6. I wait for the Government to come along with a printing press. They print £100,000 to pay off my debt.
7. I act irresponsibly and amass debts ................................
By:
boris-the-animal
When: 27 Feb 13 14:44
No Cash

The issue you are not considering is the system itself is bust and we simply cannot repay a debt of such magnitude and we are bailing out the system itself not specific individuals.

The thing is there will have to be better regulation of the lenders after this debt jubilee otherwise the same process will need to be repeated 20-50years along the line.

The banks should never be allowed to lend to people without the means to repay again.

The central bank has to ensure that the proportion of total debt to GDP is never above 50% when it is close to 500% presently.

Companies need to issue more equities to finance their ventures and rely less on debt.
By:
Menelaus
When: 27 Feb 13 15:36
boris, if this is a windup, you are failing miserably. If it isn't, it's making you look like a complete fool.

I don't think that there is a single poster on here that hasn't piped up with some sort of example/explanation on how your suggestion is massively naive (if not downright idiotic) yet you keep repeating the same childish idea over and over and over and over again, as if you hadn't even read what others said, and as if by repeating it, it would make it good.

Let me sum it up for you. Your suggestion is stupid. Move on.
By:
Shanelee1966
When: 27 Feb 13 16:17
Salary when house bought for 90k was 25k (me) & 20k (mrs)
House value now 135k fookall (me) would have been around 26k & still 20k (mrs)
By:
RonnieReagan
When: 28 Feb 13 13:00
thank you shane.  honesty from a great man, cutting the bollockios.

so house has increased by 50% and earnings by 2%, or declined if, as seems to be so widespread in the uk males of a certain age seem to have adopted a low paid, subsistence self employment existence.  a third world solution to work as a nation marches towards poverty.

so a house on 2 x joint income (and 4.5 x sole income) has increased to 3 x joint income and more pertinently to me 7 x sole income, and thus unaffordable for the latter.

people on AVERAGE salaries on their OWN could afford average houses in the 1990s and first year or so of the last decade, and it is denying it to say otherwise.  as they should.  who should buy average homes if not those with average earnings?  it is not to be for those speculating on geared investments or lottery winners. 

your example shows this, and the statistics shows this is close to the norm.

it is not DEMAND or WAGES keeping these prices high.  it is a turgid, non moving low transaction market with prices kept high by those that should be struggling bailed out and subsidised by tax credits, housing benefit or low interest rates.
By:
gas_panic!
When: 28 Feb 13 14:34
Why British prosperity is hobbled by a **** land market

http://centreforeuropeanreform.blogspot.nl/2013/02/why-british-prosperity-is-hobbled-by.html


This situation has far-reaching economic and social consequences for the UK. Massive house price inflation has aggravated the UK’s already high levels of inequality by shifting wealth from the young (and property-less) to the old (and propertied). The poor availability of affordable housing undermines labour mobility – people are unable to move to where jobs are available because they cannot afford accommodation. Those on welfare are discouraged from working (as they then lose access to subsidised housing). Congested, expensive infrastructure combined with pricey commercial property pushes up the cost of business, depresses investment and holds back economic growth.

An economy in which speculation is rewarded and wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of those with property risks stagnation. It faces an uphill battle to hold on to its young or attract skilled immigrants. Britain needs to strike a better balance between the interests of existing property-owners and the rest of the country.
By:
Si-K
When: 28 Feb 13 16:14
Forgive me people for politically i am young and naive.. BUT

Considering under 2% of UK land is built on.. why can we not build more houses thus lowering the price + creating jobs in the process?

(I know that the 2% figure isnt reliable i.e lots of land not suitable etc) but still a substantial amount to be built upon.

?
By:
manxy
When: 28 Feb 13 16:26
try see how that 2 percent sits when scotland and wales are off the equation.
By:
Si-K
When: 28 Feb 13 16:30
what does it come too?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Feb 13 16:34
onsidering under 2% of UK land is built on.. why can we not build more houses thus lowering the price + creating jobs in the process?

Because they'll only build houses that they can sell.

And if house prices aren't robust, the lenders won't lend so the builders won't build.

And if the market crashes they won't sell or build any for another ten years.
Everybody will be frightened of getting their fingers burnt.
By:
Si-K
When: 28 Feb 13 16:36
^Gotcha. n1
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