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Boris is now 2/11f and this is before even the first postal votes arrive, they will be sent out on Wednesday.
Surely this is too short, although he looks a winner, there could be oppotunities to make a trading profit here.
Surely this is too short, although he looks a winner, there could be oppotunities to make a trading profit here.
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Ken's tax fiddling has exposed him for what he is. The electorate won't have that.
Boris is the winner barring something from left field coming to light in the next few days.
Boris is the winner barring something from left field coming to light in the next few days.
I wish it was over for both of them.
Both massive egotists; both think they are bigger than the parties they are supposedly representing.
Both massive egotists; both think they are bigger than the parties they are supposedly representing.
funny thing is Mr E, Boris is actually far more popular than the Tory party as a whole
whereas Ken has the opposite problem
whereas Ken has the opposite problem
let's hope this signals the retreat into obscurity that Livingstone so richly deserves
Labour expecting a lot of disenfranchised Liberal voters to vote for Ken. I agree with them.
I’d prefer Ken to win. London has gone to the dogs anyway.
But only so that Boris could get on with the job of getting rid of Cameron, who seems too much of a liability for the Tory party to stomach for much longer.
But only so that Boris could get on with the job of getting rid of Cameron, who seems too much of a liability for the Tory party to stomach for much longer.
The big problem for Boris is the Council elections....
EXPECT a huge swing Lib Dems (defending seats at high water marke 4 years ago) to Labour and a BIGGER swing Conservative to Labour.....(classic mid term protest)....
Its a leap of faith for Boris to expect people to vote Labour in Council/LONDON elections BUT then to vote Boris....in Mayoral election....
KEN WILL WIN BY AROUND 5% on second preference...
Irrespective o what the TORY RAG EVENING STANDARD says!
EXPECT a huge swing Lib Dems (defending seats at high water marke 4 years ago) to Labour and a BIGGER swing Conservative to Labour.....(classic mid term protest)....
Its a leap of faith for Boris to expect people to vote Labour in Council/LONDON elections BUT then to vote Boris....in Mayoral election....
KEN WILL WIN BY AROUND 5% on second preference...
Irrespective o what the TORY RAG EVENING STANDARD says!
It did touch 1.16 briefly, but the price has gone back out to 1.26 now, it looks like Boris has got it in the bag as far as first preferences are concerned.
The only hope that Ken now has is picking up enough second prefs from Lib/Dems, Greens and the independent.
Boris is assured a place in the first two, but remember 2000 when Ken was an independent, the Labour candidate came third, now Ken is the Labour candidate it could happen again.
It's a long shot but if Siobhan Benita just about overtakes Ken then she could get a lot of second Preference votes from Labour as well as the small parties and win.
It's not very likely though and only the second prefrences of the first two are counted, so she would need to overtake Ken.
Boris will win in my opinion barring something really radical happening in the next 17 days.
The only hope that Ken now has is picking up enough second prefs from Lib/Dems, Greens and the independent.
Boris is assured a place in the first two, but remember 2000 when Ken was an independent, the Labour candidate came third, now Ken is the Labour candidate it could happen again.
It's a long shot but if Siobhan Benita just about overtakes Ken then she could get a lot of second Preference votes from Labour as well as the small parties and win.
It's not very likely though and only the second prefrences of the first two are counted, so she would need to overtake Ken.
Boris will win in my opinion barring something really radical happening in the next 17 days.
If the pollsters will spend all of their time in Knighsbridge and Chelsea you know the opinion polls are wrong!
Worcester, the borough council elections are not until 2014 it's only Mayor and Assembly in London this year. The assembly is fixed so that it hardly ever changes only two of the constituances are marginal and if Labour win either of them, they lose a Londonwide top up seat as a counter balance.
This system was set up to ensure that no party ever has overall control of both the mayoralty and the assembly which is supposed to keep the mayor in check.
You are right to say that the Tories will lose council seats in the rest of the country, they have made net gains in council seats almost every year since 1996, the exeption was 2010 when they only lost a net four.
The Tories even made net gains last year on the back of the collapse of the Lib/Dems, but they can't defy gravity for ever and this year they are bound to take losses.
However I've got a feeling that their losses won't be as bad as expected given that the government is in mid term becuase I don't think Ed Milliband is inspiring enough people and a lot will stay at home.
The Lib/Dems will suffer most on the 3rd of May in percentage terms.
This system was set up to ensure that no party ever has overall control of both the mayoralty and the assembly which is supposed to keep the mayor in check.
You are right to say that the Tories will lose council seats in the rest of the country, they have made net gains in council seats almost every year since 1996, the exeption was 2010 when they only lost a net four.
The Tories even made net gains last year on the back of the collapse of the Lib/Dems, but they can't defy gravity for ever and this year they are bound to take losses.
However I've got a feeling that their losses won't be as bad as expected given that the government is in mid term becuase I don't think Ed Milliband is inspiring enough people and a lot will stay at home.
The Lib/Dems will suffer most on the 3rd of May in percentage terms.
Labour expecting a lot of disenfranchised Liberal voters to vote for Ken.
They will be disappointed. Lib Dem voters may well not be ecstatic with the coalition, but they are no less opposed to Labour than they were at the General Election.
They will be disappointed. Lib Dem voters may well not be ecstatic with the coalition, but they are no less opposed to Labour than they were at the General Election.
There stands King Canute Sibaroni with his "free fred west rosette"...
Are you standing in Gloucester Sib>???...
Are you standing in Gloucester Sib>???...
I don't think Ed Milliband is inspiring enough people and a lot will stay at home.
POST OF THE YEAR !!
POST OF THE YEAR !!
OPPOSITION parties DONT WIN elections...
GOVERNMENT LOSE THEM...
Applies equally to MAYORAL and COUNCIL ELECTIONS...
CAMERON is derided as being TOTALLY PATHETIC...
That fact alone will see a massive ANTI TORY VOTE!
Some will go to UKIP
Most will go to Labour since the Dums are closet Tories without the tweed suits!
GOVERNMENT LOSE THEM...
Applies equally to MAYORAL and COUNCIL ELECTIONS...
CAMERON is derided as being TOTALLY PATHETIC...
That fact alone will see a massive ANTI TORY VOTE!
Some will go to UKIP
Most will go to Labour since the Dums are closet Tories without the tweed suits!
ww - I have no doubt the LD's will lose votes. I doubt they will go to Labour significantly though. Ken's gone - his tax affairs effectively killed his campaign dead.
This little posture may well have repercussions throughout politics as the media will be asking all prominent candidates to publish their tax 'honesty '. Let's extend this to the BBC as well shall we, I recall John Birt minimising his tax this way whilst he was DG and guess that half of the big earners are not on PAYE.
I doubt if Ken's tax affairs will make the difference between winning or losing, he lost last time to Boris so why should he win this time?
Boris was regarded as a joke when he won last time, and he's far more credible now.
The disgusting Lib/Dums are all washed up, that's the one thing we're all certain of.
Boris was regarded as a joke when he won last time, and he's far more credible now.
The disgusting Lib/Dums are all washed up, that's the one thing we're all certain of.
Markets are up for first and second choice vote shares, there's no money available yet though.
Boris is certain to top the poll on first preference votes and I reckon that second preference votes will be spread pretty much 50/50 between Boris and Ken this time.
I think Betfair have made a mistake putting up second preference markets for all candidates as only the top two first preference candidates will have their second preferences counted, Boris is a certainty for the final round but it is just possible for Ken to get caught for second place on first prefs in which case HIS second pref votes won't be counted.
Boris is certain to top the poll on first preference votes and I reckon that second preference votes will be spread pretty much 50/50 between Boris and Ken this time.
I think Betfair have made a mistake putting up second preference markets for all candidates as only the top two first preference candidates will have their second preferences counted, Boris is a certainty for the final round but it is just possible for Ken to get caught for second place on first prefs in which case HIS second pref votes won't be counted.
for one of the supposed greatest citys in the world ,the calibre of mayoral canidates is pish poor .
christ i would vote some of the loons in on here before i would vote for these pollutions,
larry you aint bris are you?
christ i would vote some of the loons in on here before i would vote for these pollutions,
larry you aint bris are you?
I think Ken is actually quite good. I think he was good for London and had some good ideas. Keep any tax-raising powers away from him and he's nice and liberal and straight-talking.
I agree there is a trading opportunity here. Even if the polls prove to be dead
accurate it is likely that through standard error you'll get an outlier which
the media will talk up.
I think Boris will win, I'm sad to say. Essentially the problem is one of
interpersonal psychology. Boris smiles a lot, Ken doesn't. Since he lost office
Ken is frequently pictured criticizing and hectoring-people won't vote for you
when you do that. Elections shouldn't turn on this stuff, but these things are
far more important than policy in practice.
There's an additional factor: I suspect a lot of people vote for the most
entertaining rather than the most competent political candidate. Boris is the
best court jester around.
accurate it is likely that through standard error you'll get an outlier which
the media will talk up.
I think Boris will win, I'm sad to say. Essentially the problem is one of
interpersonal psychology. Boris smiles a lot, Ken doesn't. Since he lost office
Ken is frequently pictured criticizing and hectoring-people won't vote for you
when you do that. Elections shouldn't turn on this stuff, but these things are
far more important than policy in practice.
There's an additional factor: I suspect a lot of people vote for the most
entertaining rather than the most competent political candidate. Boris is the
best court jester around.
Cheese - ignore it if you like, but to lose a By-election in Bradford whilst in opposition and then lose the Mayoral election whilst in opposition is utterly catastrophic for Labour. Little Ed is a boy amongst men.
sibaroni...clutching at non-existant straws again..
GALLOWAY is a hard left Labour man masquerading in another name...
BORIS is more popular than his own Party and IF he wins.....I think 90% of commentators will see it as a BIGGER WORRY for beleaguered DOPEY DAVE than EM since Ken is hardly Labour mainstream....
GALLOWAY is a hard left Labour man masquerading in another name...
BORIS is more popular than his own Party and IF he wins.....I think 90% of commentators will see it as a BIGGER WORRY for beleaguered DOPEY DAVE than EM since Ken is hardly Labour mainstream....
But even if you are right, both are very clear cases of people not wanting to vote Labour. Which mid-way through a Gvt term as opposition and an economic crisis, is catastrophic.
Give over sib, you are wasting your time spelling out the obvious to one so blind.
Sib
Of any by-election I have ever seen Bradford is both the most worrying (for anyone interested in democracy)but also the most unique!
It was a as much a wake up call for the Tories - who lost votes and the Dums - who lost votes as any other Party including Labour...
The islamification of parts of Britain is a topic that ALL DEMOCRATIC parties should be very very worried about...
Of any by-election I have ever seen Bradford is both the most worrying (for anyone interested in democracy)but also the most unique!
It was a as much a wake up call for the Tories - who lost votes and the Dums - who lost votes as any other Party including Labour...
The islamification of parts of Britain is a topic that ALL DEMOCRATIC parties should be very very worried about...
by-election I have ever seen Bradford is both the most worrying (for anyone interested in democracy)
more worrying than the glenrothes postal vote shenanigans?
more worrying than the glenrothes postal vote shenanigans?
err, no. The Lib Dems and Tories hardly turned up - they were nowhere and going nowhere.
Islamification? I am afraid if you bomb the living sh*t out of Afghanistan and Iraq, prefaced on a deliberate lie, and send Muslims knowingly to be tortured by despots, you can't really be too shocked to lose the relevant vote.
Islamification? I am afraid if you bomb the living sh*t out of Afghanistan and Iraq, prefaced on a deliberate lie, and send Muslims knowingly to be tortured by despots, you can't really be too shocked to lose the relevant vote.
so now in the world of fred wests adopted son...
9/11 which prefaced Afghanistan was a lie....
weapons of mass destruction SOLD TO SADDAM BY THATCHER were a lie...
deporting and/or transporting murdering vermin via so called rendition to imprisonment and trial is wrong...
You SUPPORT
FRED WEST
ABU HAMZA
BINYAM MOHAMMED
No wonder the LIB DUMS are unelectable!
9/11 which prefaced Afghanistan was a lie....
weapons of mass destruction SOLD TO SADDAM BY THATCHER were a lie...
deporting and/or transporting murdering vermin via so called rendition to imprisonment and trial is wrong...
You SUPPORT
FRED WEST
ABU HAMZA
BINYAM MOHAMMED
No wonder the LIB DUMS are unelectable!
Cheese - ignore it if you like, but to lose a By-election in Bradford whilst in opposition and then lose the Mayoral election whilst in opposition is utterly catastrophic for Labour. Little Ed is a boy amongst men.
Remind me again how many voted for the Lib Dems in Bradford? Oh yes, 1500 people, a negative swing of 8%.
How about Feltham and Heston? Invercylde?
Your party is dieing visibly, quit clutching at straws, it is pathetic.
Remind me again how many voted for the Lib Dems in Bradford? Oh yes, 1500 people, a negative swing of 8%.
How about Feltham and Heston? Invercylde?
Your party is dieing visibly, quit clutching at straws, it is pathetic.
Cheese - are you trying to declare that the by-election and the current state of affairs in the London Mayor race have been good for Milliband and Labour?
I am afraid if you bomb the living sh*t out of Afghanistan and Iraq, prefaced on a deliberate lie, and send Muslims knowingly to be tortured by despots, you can't really be too shocked to lose the relevant vote.
Never fear sib, Yvette Cooper is campaigning for the muslim vote in her constituency by objecting to the deportation of Abu Qatada ! Labour seem to think the muslim community will forget who was in charge when all that happened.
Never fear sib, Yvette Cooper is campaigning for the muslim vote in her constituency by objecting to the deportation of Abu Qatada ! Labour seem to think the muslim community will forget who was in charge when all that happened.
We are mid term in Gvt. What is Labour's excuse?
You are nothing. Your party has been taken over and destroyed
by a small gang of opportunists. Your continued existence is only
to take it up the arse from Cameron and his chums on a daily basis.
You are nothing. Your party has been taken over and destroyed
by a small gang of opportunists. Your continued existence is only
to take it up the arse from Cameron and his chums on a daily basis.
Cheese - are you trying to declare that the by-election and the current state of affairs in the London Mayor race have been good for Milliband and Labour?
I see no need to "declare" what is obvious and every pundit out there is repeating incessantly. You must have heard the reports stating that Livingstone is less popular than this party and Boris is more popular than his. Neither candidate is in fact particulary close to their own leadership. Livingstone it should be remember, left the Labour party for some years. Boris is widely perceived as being Cameron's worst enemy in the Tory ranks.
As for the by-election: what are you implying? Do you think Respect is going to sweep parliament at the next election? Did you not know that Galloway used to be a Labour MP and has publicly declared his support for Labour in the next general election? Do you think that the huge swing against Labour means something but the huge swing against the conservatives and LD's is meaningless? Please explain, I'd love to hear you rationalize this one.
I see no need to "declare" what is obvious and every pundit out there is repeating incessantly. You must have heard the reports stating that Livingstone is less popular than this party and Boris is more popular than his. Neither candidate is in fact particulary close to their own leadership. Livingstone it should be remember, left the Labour party for some years. Boris is widely perceived as being Cameron's worst enemy in the Tory ranks.
As for the by-election: what are you implying? Do you think Respect is going to sweep parliament at the next election? Did you not know that Galloway used to be a Labour MP and has publicly declared his support for Labour in the next general election? Do you think that the huge swing against Labour means something but the huge swing against the conservatives and LD's is meaningless? Please explain, I'd love to hear you rationalize this one.
"As for the by-election: what are you implying?"
I think it's pretty simple what I am implying. That voters don't trust Labour and don't want to vote for them even mid term and with a presiding government in disarray.
But - feel free to continue to trumpet away about your opinion polls.
I think it's pretty simple what I am implying. That voters don't trust Labour and don't want to vote for them even mid term and with a presiding government in disarray.
But - feel free to continue to trumpet away about your opinion polls.
Java 18 Apr 12 09:09
"As for the by-election: what are you implying?"
I think it's pretty simple what I am implying. That voters don't trust Labour and don't want to vote for them even mid term and with a presiding government in disarray.
But - feel free to continue to trumpet away about your opinion polls.
TORY LIAR....
You will live to regret that LIE....when it is rammed down your throat after the COUNCIL ELECTIONS....
TORIES ON THE RUN
LIBDUMS IN DISARRAY
EDS NEW MODEL LABOUR PARTY - A POWERFUL POSITIVE VOICE FOR BRITAIN...
One final point...Respect can have all the islamic nutcases they want....they did in Bradford.....no sensible party wants to eb linked to evil and depravity like islam!
"As for the by-election: what are you implying?"
I think it's pretty simple what I am implying. That voters don't trust Labour and don't want to vote for them even mid term and with a presiding government in disarray.
But - feel free to continue to trumpet away about your opinion polls.
TORY LIAR....
You will live to regret that LIE....when it is rammed down your throat after the COUNCIL ELECTIONS....
TORIES ON THE RUN
LIBDUMS IN DISARRAY
EDS NEW MODEL LABOUR PARTY - A POWERFUL POSITIVE VOICE FOR BRITAIN...
One final point...Respect can have all the islamic nutcases they want....they did in Bradford.....no sensible party wants to eb linked to evil and depravity like islam!
"One final point...Respect can have all the islamic nutcases they want....they did in Bradford.....no sensible party wants to eb linked to evil and depravity like islam! "
You do realise that Labour actively court the muslim voting demographic? And I'd suggest that voters who opted for Galloway were reflecting more the fact that they thought Labour was incompetent and lacked integrity as opposed to them being "evil" and depraved.
You come across as a weirdo if you don't mind me saying.
You do realise that Labour actively court the muslim voting demographic? And I'd suggest that voters who opted for Galloway were reflecting more the fact that they thought Labour was incompetent and lacked integrity as opposed to them being "evil" and depraved.
You come across as a weirdo if you don't mind me saying.
And I'd suggest that voters who opted for Galloway were reflecting more the fact that they thought Labour was incompetent and lacked integrity as opposed to them being "evil" and depraved.
...so they elect a former Labour MP, who started his own party because he was too far to the left of Labour, who will support Labour in parliament and wants a Labour government. Take that Labour Party!
...so they elect a former Labour MP, who started his own party because he was too far to the left of Labour, who will support Labour in parliament and wants a Labour government. Take that Labour Party!
Galloway isn't all that left wing, he's pro-business and has a number of business interests in the middle east, he's agressively pro-Arab and has a number of wealthy Arab chums.
The extent to which the TORIES ARE TERRIFIED of KEN was proven again at PMQ's when all the Tories seem interested in is "knocking Ken"
IT REALLY IS VERY VERY POOR POLITICS and FRANKLY smells of Tory desperation...
FACT IS THIS....
On the hustings, on the doorsteps.....Ken's tax affairs are of NO CONSEQUENCE ...
What is of consequence is
The Granny Tax
The Pasty Tax
Giving to the rich by screwing the poor
Theresa Mays latest ****-up
The destruction of the NHS
Lack of any credible growth
The perception that the Government is rocking from one crisis to another
The view that Cameron is an out of touch Toff....
KEN WILL WIN....quite easily in the end!
IT REALLY IS VERY VERY POOR POLITICS and FRANKLY smells of Tory desperation...
FACT IS THIS....
On the hustings, on the doorsteps.....Ken's tax affairs are of NO CONSEQUENCE ...
What is of consequence is
The Granny Tax
The Pasty Tax
Giving to the rich by screwing the poor
Theresa Mays latest ****-up
The destruction of the NHS
Lack of any credible growth
The perception that the Government is rocking from one crisis to another
The view that Cameron is an out of touch Toff....
KEN WILL WIN....quite easily in the end!
"On the hustings, on the doorsteps.....Ken's tax affairs are of NO CONSEQUENCE"
This is perhaps true in the empty void that exists between your ears, but to the general man in the street the "do as I say, not as I do" approach doesn't play too well.
This is perhaps true in the empty void that exists between your ears, but to the general man in the street the "do as I say, not as I do" approach doesn't play too well.
Ken's tax affairs have lost him the election, it is as simple as that.
Its not that they are wrong per se, but as Java says, they fit badly with his high moral talk about other people's tax affairs.
Its not that they are wrong per se, but as Java says, they fit badly with his high moral talk about other people's tax affairs.
I actually have no particular preference for Boris or Ken, but I am delighted that Ken's writing of a blank cheque for the Olympics bid (with other people's money)hasn't given him the ego trip of a life time as Mayor of London for the Olympics.
SKY news 8.00 tonight are the debates, I dont live in London so it doesn't affect me but it will be great viewing.
Apparently Boris has been warned that any more threats of physical violence and he will be arrested....
Paddick has confirmed there is verbal evidence from the spat in the lift where a very rattled Johnson resorted to violent threats!
Of course the Tory boys are talking b o l l o x...
Boris will be beaten come the election and quite easily as Voters vote anti Cameron and the most inept Government in history!
Paddick has confirmed there is verbal evidence from the spat in the lift where a very rattled Johnson resorted to violent threats!
Of course the Tory boys are talking b o l l o x...
Boris will be beaten come the election and quite easily as Voters vote anti Cameron and the most inept Government in history!
I really do wonder who is more grateful, Milliband for Dave or Dave for ED
I expect Ken to win tonight's debate relatively calmly and sensibly while Boris relies on his "personality" and will rant a bit. It's irrelevant because I can't see Ken saying much that will stop me voting for him.
worcesterwilly
16 Apr 12 11:34 Joined: 25 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 6,533 | Blogger: worcesterwilly's blog
The big problem for Boris is the Council elections....
EXPECT a huge swing Lib Dems (defending seats at high water marke 4 years ago) to Labour and a BIGGER swing Conservative to Labour.....(classic mid term protest)....
Its a leap of faith for Boris to expect people to vote Labour in Council/LONDON elections BUT then to vote Boris....in Mayoral election....
KEN WILL WIN BY AROUND 5% on second preference...
Irrespective o what the TORY RAG EVENING STANDARD says!
16 Apr 12 11:34 Joined: 25 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 6,533 | Blogger: worcesterwilly's blog
The big problem for Boris is the Council elections....
EXPECT a huge swing Lib Dems (defending seats at high water marke 4 years ago) to Labour and a BIGGER swing Conservative to Labour.....(classic mid term protest)....
Its a leap of faith for Boris to expect people to vote Labour in Council/LONDON elections BUT then to vote Boris....in Mayoral election....
KEN WILL WIN BY AROUND 5% on second preference...
Irrespective o what the TORY RAG EVENING STANDARD says!
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