Boris v Ken - Is the game over?

I wish it was over for both of them.

Both massive egotists; both think they are bigger than the parties they are supposedly representing.

let's hope this signals the retreat into obscurity that Livingstone so richly deserves

I’d prefer Ken to win. London has gone to the dogs anyway.
But only so that Boris could get on with the job of getting rid of  Cameron, who seems too much of a liability for the Tory party to stomach for much longer.

I shall be voting Ken again for the second time.

It did touch 1.16 briefly, but the price has gone back out to 1.26 now, it looks like Boris has got it in the bag as far as first preferences are concerned.

The only hope that Ken now has is picking up enough second prefs from Lib/Dems, Greens and the independent.

Boris is assured a place in the first two, but remember 2000 when Ken was an independent, the Labour candidate came third, now Ken is the Labour candidate it could happen again.

It's a long shot but if Siobhan Benita just about overtakes Ken then she could get a lot of second Preference votes from Labour as well as the small parties and win.

It's not very likely though and only the second prefrences of the first two are counted, so she would need to overtake Ken.

Boris will win in my opinion barring something really radical happening in the next 17 days.

Worcester, the borough council elections are not until 2014 it's only Mayor and Assembly in London this year. The assembly is fixed so that it hardly ever changes only two of the constituances are marginal and if Labour win either of them, they lose a Londonwide top up seat as a counter balance.

This system was set up to ensure that no party ever has overall control of both the mayoralty and the assembly which is supposed to keep the mayor in check.

You are right to say that the Tories will lose council seats in the rest of the country, they have made net gains in council seats almost every year since 1996, the exeption was 2010 when they only lost a net four.

The Tories even made net gains last year on the back of the collapse of the Lib/Dems, but they can't defy gravity for ever and this year they are bound to take losses.

However I've got a feeling that their losses won't be as bad as expected given that the government is in mid term becuase I don't think Ed Milliband is inspiring enough people and a lot will stay at home.

The Lib/Dems will suffer most on the 3rd of May in percentage terms.

There stands King Canute Sibaroni with his "free fred west rosette"...

Are you standing in Gloucester Sib>???...

OPPOSITION parties DONT WIN elections...

GOVERNMENT LOSE THEM...

Applies equally to MAYORAL and COUNCIL ELECTIONS...

CAMERON is derided as being TOTALLY PATHETIC...

That fact alone will see a massive ANTI TORY VOTE!

Some will go to UKIP

Most will go to Labour since the Dums are closet Tories without the tweed suits!

This little posture may well have repercussions throughout politics as the media will be asking all prominent candidates to publish their tax 'honesty '. Let's extend this to the BBC as well shall we, I recall John Birt minimising his tax this way whilst he was DG and guess that half of the big earners are not on PAYE.

Markets are up for first and second choice vote shares, there's no money available yet though.

Boris is certain to top the poll on first preference votes and I reckon that second preference votes will be spread pretty much 50/50 between Boris and Ken this time.

I think Betfair have made a mistake putting up second preference markets for all candidates as only the top two first preference candidates will have their second preferences counted, Boris is a certainty for the final round but it is just possible for Ken to get caught for second place on first prefs in which case HIS second pref votes won't be counted.

I think Ken is actually quite good.  I think he was good for London and had some good ideas.  Keep any tax-raising powers away from him and he's nice and liberal and straight-talking.

Cheese - ignore it if you like, but to lose a By-election in Bradford whilst in opposition and then lose the Mayoral election whilst in opposition is utterly catastrophic for Labour.  Little Ed is a boy amongst men.

But even if you are right, both are very clear cases of people not wanting to vote Labour.  Which mid-way through a Gvt term as opposition and an economic crisis, is catastrophic.

Sib

Of any by-election I have ever seen Bradford is both the most worrying (for anyone interested in democracy)but also the most unique!

It was a as much a wake up call for the Tories - who lost votes and the Dums - who lost votes as any other Party including Labour...

The islamification of parts of Britain is a topic that ALL DEMOCRATIC parties should be very very worried about...

err, no.  The Lib Dems and Tories hardly turned up - they were nowhere and going nowhere. 

Islamification?  I am afraid if you bomb the living sh*t out of Afghanistan and Iraq, prefaced on a deliberate lie, and send Muslims knowingly to be tortured by despots, you can't really be too shocked to lose the relevant vote.

yeah, ever since you left they've been all at sea

We are mid term in Gvt.  What is Labour's excuse?

I am afraid if you bomb the living sh*t out of Afghanistan and Iraq, prefaced on a deliberate lie, and send Muslims knowingly to be tortured by despots, you can't really be too shocked to lose the relevant vote.


Never fear sib, Yvette Cooper is campaigning for the muslim vote in her constituency by objecting to the deportation of Abu Qatada ! Labour seem to think the muslim community will forget who was in charge when all that happened.

Cheese - are you trying to declare that the by-election and the current state of affairs in the London Mayor race have been good for Milliband and Labour?

I see no need to "declare" what is obvious and every pundit out there is repeating incessantly. You must have heard the reports stating that Livingstone is less popular than this party and Boris is more popular than his. Neither candidate is in fact particulary close to their own leadership. Livingstone it should be remember, left the Labour party for some years. Boris is widely perceived as being Cameron's worst enemy in the Tory ranks.

As for the by-election: what are you implying? Do you think Respect is going to sweep parliament at the next election? Did you not know that Galloway used to be a Labour MP and has publicly declared his support for Labour in the next general election? Do you think that the huge swing against Labour means something but the huge swing against the conservatives and LD's is meaningless? Please explain, I'd love to hear you rationalize this one.