PNicholls

We have had a lot of success with our novices in handicaps down the years - and that fact certainly doesn't seem to have been lost on the handicapper.

Because all I can say is that my three novice chasers - Rebel Du Maquis (official mark of 148), Watamu Bay (147) and Robinson Collonges (148) - appear to have been handicapped on what they may achieve in the future, and not what they have done.

And, surely, you have to give the novices a chance.

But it is the handicapper that has taken no chances with their ratings.

Take Rebel Du Maquis, for example.

He has been given a mark of 148, and I can tell you now that he won't be entered in a handicap off 148, as he may as well start now.

He won well at Cheltenham first time out and then won at odds-on at Taunton, and is clearly open to improvement, but a mark of 148? I don't think so.

And why has he got a mark anyway? I haven't asked for one, or entered it in a handicap.

People may not realise that the answer is, that after two runs, the handicapper gives them a mark so it can be published in the racecards.

Now, as you will know, I am all for giving the public as much information as possible.

But I feel that we are shooting ourselves in the foot here.

At a time when we are struggling for runners in our novice races - and therefore producing competitive fields that will help boost the betting turnover and the resulting levy - we are initiating the opposite by publishing these handicap marks too soon.

If I am a trainer thinking about taking on Rebel Du Maquis in a novice chase, and then see that my horse is rated a whopping 148, then am I more or less likely to take it on and possibly ruin my handicap mark?

Of course, I am less likely.

Even if they are beaten at a respectful distance, their horse could still be raised to an uncompetitive mark. Trainers just don't take the risk.

Of course, this would benefit me in this instance, as I may just have two horses to beat, just as Watamu Bay did at Exeter and Robinson Collonges did at Hereford.

But there is a wider picture to be seen here.

And if 148 is an accurate assessment of Rebel Du Maquis' ability, then from what I have seen, Robinson Collonges - rated on the same mark - has about a stone in hand in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham on December 11.

Which, of course, he hasn't.

And I was expecting a chase mark of around 140 for Watamu Bay, the same as what he was rated over hurdles.

But, no, he has been given 147 after being beaten first time out at Chepstow, then winning twice at Exeter at odds of 8-11 and 1-5. On the latter occasion not impressing everyone in victory, though that run probably came a bit too quick for him.

He will run in the Welsh National off 147, but that is just 1lb lower than Pandorama, a dual Grade 1 winner over fences as a novice. Figure that one out.

You have to give the owners a fair crack of the whip.

It would appear that the handicappers tend to build in extra for potential improvement in their marks on occasion, which I just cannot agree with - and you won't be surprised to learn that I have had a friendly chat to Phil Smith about all of the above.

But to get a second opinion I contacted Timeform to get their view. They use symbols to earmark potential improvers but it was very interesting to see they rate Rebel Du Maquis and Watamu Bay 137p and 137+ respectively, and Robinson Collonges 135p.

Of course, that may underplay their future ability.

But, crucially, on what my three horses have achieved over fences so far, Timeform seem nearer the mark.

On what I have seen not one of those three horses should be rated higher than 140.

But obviously I hope I am wrong.

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