Tom Dascombe has a good record in 3yo+ Maiden Stakes at Wolverhampton.
They become very good when returning after a Long Break (100+ days)
In the winter period October-February they become "excellent"
Having entered all Express Data for top rated W Factor I'm looking forward to utilising the data.
One would think that the top rated would also match the "SPOT" indicated racecard pick but out of 5755 races there were 356 SPOT selected that were not the Top Rated. Those provided 49 winners but overall an insignificant small profit.
Today I am going with CLASSIC CALORI 2.30 NMKT There are a number of reasons to support this one today.
It's latest form at Nmkt when taking lead in final furlong to be headed near finish was in a grade higher than today.
Todays race is over a furlong shorter but that may or may not be a positive, but on soft going it may prove to be.
David O'Meara has had a pretty good year in Class 3 (C) grade hcps (3yo+) this year with a strike rate of 11 wins from 50 runners. Take out the older horses (7yo+ which provides just 1 win from 14 runners) it leaves a healthy 30% win rate.
Now using the Express Top Rated spot data at NMKT in C hcps 3yo+ (which Classic Colori has today) this year's data shows
win - place - unpl - races
ratio of 8 6 7 21
Take out the three older runners, one of which was placed 3rd and it reads 13-18 that were placed (70%).
At around 5/1 it looks a very reasonable each way bet.
RESULT. Wannabe King 1st 33/1; Classic Colori unplaced.
After looking at previous race trends a Distance win usually figured in the past winners C.V. and Classic Colori had not won at the distance of todays race. Need to cover all the angles in future.
Going by 10 year trends
All past 10 winners were PLACED/WON LTO
ALL past 10 winners won in last two runs
There are three qualifiers today
BOOMSHACKERLACKER
HALF A PERSON
TAWHID
A low draw appears to be wanting in this race but with the lowest number of runners in 11 years that may be unwise to rule out Boomshackerlacker
under this bit 7 out of 10 had won over todays distance and Boom has not.
Three previous winners (last 10 yrs) had just two runs and all won latest over the distance - Half A Person qualifier and has been backed 14's to 10
Tawahid would be only the second winner in 11 years to have won with 3 runs and is not a distance winner.
My cash is on HALF A PERSON with savers on other two
TAWHID wins 9/2 Boomshackerlacker 3rd 9/1 & Half A Person 4th 8/1
An interesting race, especially with Havin A Good Time trying to reverse a head defeat with Fama Mac on 7lb better terms.
Daily Express and Mirror both have Fama Mac as top rated. The Express also had it top rated when it won latest race.
Surprisingly the to rated spot horse in Express has a seemingly poor record with 5f sprints in low grade (E and F grade)3yo+ Hcps.
Just 4 winners from 37 races since late August 2012.
The Mirror has 11 wins from the same races
When Mirror and Express both have the same horse as top rated the win ratio is 2 from 7
Looking at Betfair betting a layer has input the following bets "in running"
Micky Mac £400 at 5.00
Made In The Shade £400 at 5.00
Molly Jones £400 at 5.00
Irish Bay £500 at 4.00
Pavers Star £1000 at 2.36
Steel City Boy £500 at 3.7
Greek Islands £1000 at 2.40
Little Suzie £700 at 3.20
Fama Mac £2000 at 1.78
Having a Good Time £3000 at 1.46
I'm not exactly sure it's the same layer but it does seem that way.
Whether it makes a profit will be known on the result of race, but an interesting method of approach to the race.
The same layer could also have input win bets but unable to assess that area.
Getting back to the race both Fama Mac and Having A Good Time have different jockey aboard for first time today.
The 7lb apprentice may not have got the best out of Fama Mac last time and the form figures over 5f read 2212 which makes one wonder why the trainer did seem to think this was it's best distance sooner.
RESULT; A one horse race won by Having A Good Time
Raceform Interactive I normally only subscribe at end of flat season and then input my stuff over winter. That task gets more daunting as the years progress.
Having subscribed to Raceform Interactive this year continually from May I have cut n pasted most of the 10 year race trends.
They are useful occasionally - like the 3yo hcp race that is always won by a current season winner, but again there were 3 selections. Backed them all at varying stakes and fortunately the highest price won.
There is a need to pinpoint the likely winner and then just use the stats as a plus or minus pointer.
Pretty much the same with any system method selection.
Then there are the speed figures and form ratings angles.
The speed figures have been collated and will be input within the year database to see if an edge is there in certain types of races or distance.
Also top spot ratings from Mirror and Express have been incorporated since August.
The latter are proving to be quite interesting but it's early days.
All in all it adds up to Trainer Stats, Race Stats, Speed and Form ratings.
Four years ago I kept a record of "Market Movers" but that was too hit n miss.
I've done the Stoute and other Nmkt trainer maiden races and there is little profit to be made in the long run as the winning prices are often odds on low.
I've done the race stats for the better class race meetings covering 30 years and found that indicated more than one runner. Backing 5 runners in a race doesn't prove profitable, so whilst the stats are sometimes useful they are not the end all.
Studied Michael Stoute methods in detail 2 years ago and following that he has had two disasterious seasons since and no profit there either.
Also did Andrew Balding last year and whilst some success has been made, it's not life changing.
Generally I stick with Nmkt trainers but Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon are others to follow.
The Godolphin set up has taken on other trainers with their 2yo's and Johnston, Hannon, Richard Fahey & Co are probably the ones to concentrate on.
There is no simple way to win by betting on horses. It is hard and time consuming work but enjoyable in parts.
It's all about looking for an edge or obtaining good stable information.
I have followed on from my late Father who was often reading "The Handicap Book" and working out speed figures
Around that time I was avidly following football and the racing results annoucements were a nuisance as they
preceded the football results.
The change came when I was 10 years old and my Mother asked me for a tip.
The "tanner" (6 old pence) went on Mexicali Rose which won at 10/1 and that was the start of my addiction to horse racing.
It wasn't long before I was borrowing my Dads form books and even opened up my own postal racing account with Shermans Bookmakers.
Mu first racecourse bet was when I was 15 at York races, on holiday with my Dad. Joe Sime won the Ebor at 16/1.
When starting work at Shipping Agents Office in Liverpool I would buy a daily newspaper to read on the train.
I become quite an authority on various newspaper horse racing coverage.
Daily Sketch, Herald, Mirror, Mail, Express, Guardian were initial studies but have settled with Mirror and Express as my main racing papers.I also have a high regard for the Mail which I also used in the early years but it's too expensive running three papers.
The early noticeable thing about the Mirror was the number of 2yo Maiden winners over 8 furlongs for John Dunlop when the SF (strongly fancied) was present on the racecard.
My job was to deliver shipping note invoices to the various Shipping Line Offices in Liverpool City. There was often time during the afternoon delivery to pop into the betting offices.
Marraige and children took out a period of time where horse racing was restricited, but my first wife would argue that Form book study was still a priority in those days.
1982 was the start for the basis of keeping data in written format and 1994 started the computerised version.
I now have accumulated a massive amount of racing data under Flat racing trainers and numerous Excel databases.
The information overload is problematic (especially with number of Saturday meetings) to evaluate sometimes and probably too much to keep on top of. That's where the winter months come in handy as less racing on AW allows time for data input. and evaluation.