Pinza

Having entered all Express Data for top rated W Factor I'm looking forward to utilising the data.
One would think that the top rated would also match the "SPOT" indicated racecard pick but out of 5755 races there were 356 SPOT selected that were not the Top Rated. Those provided 49 winners but overall an insignificant small profit.

Today I am going with CLASSIC CALORI 2.30 NMKT
There are a number of reasons to support this one today.
It's latest form at Nmkt when taking lead in final furlong to be headed near finish was in a grade higher than today.
Todays race is over a furlong shorter but that may or may not be a positive, but on soft going it may prove to be.

David O'Meara has had a pretty good year in Class 3 (C) grade hcps (3yo+) this year with a strike rate of 11 wins from 50 runners. Take out the older horses (7yo+ which provides just 1 win from 14 runners) it leaves a healthy 30% win rate.

Now using the Express Top Rated spot data at NMKT in C hcps 3yo+ (which Classic Colori has today) this year's data shows
           win - place - unpl - races
ratio of    8     6       7       21
Take out the three older runners, one of which was placed 3rd and it reads 13-18 that were placed (70%).

At around 5/1 it looks a very reasonable each way bet.

RESULT. Wannabe King 1st 33/1; Classic Colori unplaced.

After looking at previous race trends a Distance win usually figured in the past winners C.V. and Classic Colori had not won at the distance of todays race. Need to cover all the angles in future.