Pinza

Have loads of data over 33 yrs on this race
I gave up on it when Homecoming Queen won in 2012.

BASICS
33 races
7 unbeaten winners (last was Attraction 2004) and there's only one qualifier this year (Betimes) but no winner had just the one run (16 have tried).

The best and easiest guides I can give are
Winner FTO and / or LTO
Last run as 2yo September - November (the later the better)

There's loads of more complicated scenario's with track and distance wins but I'll stick with the basics.

So out go...numbers on racecard
1(nr),2,3,4,8,9,13,14,16, That's four of first six in betting gone (as far as the winner is concerned)

I've a problem with Ihtimal because of the 10f win in Meydan. Normally 8f is maximum win distance. I'm not aware of any winner coming from winter racing in Dubai. They tried with Devotee in 2009 and I may have missed another I'm not aware of.

Problem with Sandiva on basis that the three past Nell Gwyn winners managed a win or 2nd placing in Grp 2 or Gp 1 race and Sandiva has only decent Grp 3 runs.

Also Lucky Crystal won the Lowther. The criteria is placed at Gp 1 level and Lucky K has won two Grp 2 races. It's a tight call on this one though.

Lightning Thunder who scores highly so far was placed in Rockfel and that race produced 17 qualifiers who ran in Gns failed to win

Up until last year no 6f winner that ran over 8f had won.
That stat was broken by Sky Thunder but may effect Joyeuse, Lucky Krystale, Princess Noor and Vorda.

So what's left?
MAJEYDA and TAPESTRY

Both O'Brien winners had more than 3 runs and a current outing. Only Virginia Waters was kept to Irish racing. (wishful thinking) But at the prices maybe Tapestry will take it.

There you have it (?)
Ihtmal will make the running for Majeyda

RESULT UPDATE
Miss France won
My two unplaced
The winner was knocked out at first stage - not having won FTO or LTO