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Ooops ... just posted this on Horse racing by mistake!!
Well the clever bet here is to back Wiggo for the GC (overall). He's somewhere around evens at the moment but he will be 1/2 by the end of the stage. He'll take a minute out of Evans and two or three out of Nibali. Cancellara could nip him for the stage though? Martin and Froome will be top 5 with probably Evans. Remember though, Froome beat Wiggo in a TT at the Vuelta last year (23 secs, Brad recovering from collarbone)
After that, Kessiakoff (?? knackered from today though), Chavanel, Menchov. Zabriskie, Rogers and Millar to make up the top 10.
Well the clever bet here is to back Wiggo for the GC (overall). He's somewhere around evens at the moment but he will be 1/2 by the end of the stage. He'll take a minute out of Evans and two or three out of Nibali. Cancellara could nip him for the stage though? Martin and Froome will be top 5 with probably Evans. Remember though, Froome beat Wiggo in a TT at the Vuelta last year (23 secs, Brad recovering from collarbone)
After that, Kessiakoff (?? knackered from today though), Chavanel, Menchov. Zabriskie, Rogers and Millar to make up the top 10.
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martin 9/1 looks big? is his injury going to affect him that much?
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I have taken the 9/4 with PP about Wiggo. Reckon it's a two horse race and more even than the odds suggest. Just hope the weather isn't a factor.
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Looking back to the prologue and it was Martin who was favourite, and after what happened in the Worlds this wasn't a surprise. What was a surprise is that the favourite would get a puncture, a rare thing over such a short district course. So Spartacus is now short favourite heading into the first ITT on account of winning the prologue and holding yellow, supposedly. I'm not impressed with that market logic, and would suggest that Martin is the best value he'll be for a very long time in a 41.5 km ITT.
41.5 kms is about 6/7ths longer than the prologue and should Martin again catch a flat, I think he'll have the opportunity to get back into it, and still go close. Why shouldn't he win? He is by far the best time-trialist in the peloton going over his preferred distance, even though he'll lose a little bit of his power over the middle section. Is he injured? Well, let's look at the last two stages, one tougher than the ohter but both hilly and uncomfortable terrain for such a rider. He beat home Spartacus by 3 places even thought they came in the same 12'19 bunch in stage 8. And in stage 7, where perhaps he wouldn't be out of place in the "autobus" he came home in 65th place with Gilbert and Westra on either side of his finishing position, and only a bit over 3mins down on Cancellara, who finished in 20th, after showing respect in defence of yellow. Both results suggesting that he wasn't suffering to such an extent that he could hardly go on to the finish. In conclusion; I don't see that Martin is much injured, he may experience some pain and discomfort but that is nothing for these men, nothing for him I don't think in any case, and I therefore don't think it will impact significantly enough to keep Martin off the top step over his pet event. I agree that there may be some trading movement in the market for the GC as expressed by HoD, but given the value of better than 9-1 odds for Martin the only clever move for mine is to take my fill. Cheers, SP |
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SP, you are spot on. WC last year Martin destroyed Fab and Wiggo. Vuelta TT was similar and same story. Taken you advice and jumped aboard at 9-1 (Boils).
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He is injured. He broke his scaphoid (small bone in the hand) in a crash on Stage 1. He rode today for the first time without his splint.
"I am motivated without end," he announced. "The entire week was one problem. But I need this test. It will be the last time trial before the Olympics to see at which position I get along with the injury," said the Omega rider. "No way I'm favorite, I've finally broken a bone," (translated from German) After the TT he is going to decide whether to continue with the tour or not. Cancellara for me. |
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By the way, Martin was not favourite for the Prologue... every single bookie and Betfair had Cancellara as favourite for the prologue.
http://s9.postimage.org/gylapufxb/prologue.jpg |
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Quite correct, Martin was 5/1 for the prologue and third favourite after Cancellara and Wiggins. The reason he is so long for this is because he is riding with a broken hand.
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SP, as you say, the prologue was probably too short for Martin, which was why he wasn't favourite and Spartacus was. If he was for I'd be all over Martin for this, but as it is I don't see how he can win. I'd be extremely keen on Wiggo for this of he wasn't in yellow, but the yellow jersey is a bit of a problem, it is apparently 1-2 seconds slower per km that the Sky skinsuit. So this could cost Wiggo upto a minute here.
So, a modest bet on Wiggo at 9/4 for me, but I couldn't put anyone off backing Cancellara at evens. |
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If he was fit*
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Just seen that Wiggins will be wearing a Sky yellow skinsuit. This is marvellous news. With this I reckon its 50/50 between the top two, which surely makes Wiggins value at 9/4.
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i think youre right marychain but im so big on wiggins GC already that i'll be buzzing enough if he wins the stage.
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My apologies to marychain1 and the forum for my mistake regarding Martin being favourite for the Prologue, I was clearly wrong and agree with marychain1 about his place in the market, then. Doesn't change anything for me though, I'm sticking with Martin - he should smash this even on sub-best form! If I was worried about his injury to such an extent as to look for the next likely rider to feature highly, I would go with Spartacus over Wiggins, and actually believe that Evans will go closer to Wiggins than is being expected by the experts. Evans now has solid race form, and his mountain finish go the other day suggested he will put in a very good effort for this - talk of a minute between him and Wiggins is highly optimistic, in my view.
Cheers, SP |
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I'm expecting about 80 seconds between Wiggo and Evans here
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Evans rode out of his skin to get within 7 secs of win at Grenoble last year. He'll TT well and the gap will be errr... 33 secs IMHO!!
Martin 13s up after 16.5k and 23 up after 41 against some good trialists (Larsson, Sanchez L, Westra, Millar) ... might put up a challenging time. I'd say 9-1 looks big at the moment! |
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Tony Martin going to set the fastest time so far, through the penultimate checkpoint 33 seconds up on Westra
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He'll need 53'40 to give himself a chance against the big three.
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80seconds is ridiculous, cadel is not one of the schleck brothers! I'd take the under on 33secs, it's a good shout imo.
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33sec gap is a good shout i mean
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Spread bet would be interesting. Sky have their own yellow skin suit that allegedly saves a second a km. That is going to tip the balance if it is true!
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Hey, hey ... 53'40!! Must have a crystal ball with me!!!!
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53'40 was a very good shout!
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Tony exactly 53'40"
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That was my cut off ... quicker than that I was going large, slower then lay .... what do I do now?! If forecast rain comes Martin wins for sure!
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forecast rain? I thought it was forecast fine and dry all day?
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why is wiggo now odds on for the GC?
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Put "besancon weather" into Google. Monday: Chance of rain
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Hi Sir Denis: Because he is going to win the TT (if it doesn't rain) and then the GC.
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lol
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A cheeky bet on the Kenyan for me, GL
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Fantastic ride by Martin btw for a guy on one arm. Won't be enough for a top 3 but great under the circumstance
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Hi JWB: TT or GC
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Hey HoD, was referring to the TT today. Shame he was not riding for a another team because he would have given the GC a shake as well even accounting for his bad luck on Stage 3
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no chance for Martin in the big mountains, whether with a broken wrist or not. I cannot see him finishing the tour, he seems to only ride on to keep himself in shape for London ITT, not sure though that it will work.
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reports are that the team doctor asked him to pull out prior to today's stage but he wanted to ride
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Rain is closing into Besancon ... back Martin cos odds ridiculous now!!
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We're about to find out how good Tony Martin's time is - Richie Porte off the start ramp at 12:33 UK Time...
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has anyone got a link to coverage?
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Tony Martin punctured which is why his odds are so high! Still put in the best time for far though!
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Rain would definitely spice things up
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