orioles

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

The Texas offense has stumbled a little of late, and although Anderson traditionally has problems with the Rangers (he has got an ERA of 9.00 at Arlington) I'm going to give him another chance. He's strong on the road and Lewis has struggled at home this season with a 1.69/7.31 WHIP/ERA.

Anderson had better shut Texas down, because Oakland have little to offer at the plate. However, the A's are the value.

Pick: A's @ 2.01

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

24-22 (+3.39pts)

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

The weather's not great, and Beckett has been lights out at home - not that the Twins are hitting anyway. Blackburn has fared well against Boston, who are hitting .269 at home and, with Evens on offer for Unders, that looks like the value here.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

23-22 (+2.39pts)

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Two red hot pitchers on the mound, changeable weather and the wind in from left suggests Unders.

Hamels and Jurrjens have been brutal this year; 0.75, 1.50/1.19, 1.99 WHIP/ERA L3 should see them battling it out in a close game. Both pitchers have been solid against tonight's opponents in the past.

I'll trust the stats.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

23-22 (+2.39pts)

Some Thoughts on Betting Baseball

Gallardo went into last night's pick with the most hits given up in the majors and an 8.89 ERA ... and takes a no-no into the eighth after I've opposed him

Keep away from short prices in baseball betting - I generally won't consider less than 1.75, but in truth don't like going below 1.9. Betting a whole season is a slog, and low prices will wear you out.

With last night's bitter lesson still fresh, I thought I'd share some material I've noted over the years that should improve your baseball bets.

The short checklist:

Look at pitcher
Look at pitcher vs. line-up
Look at pitcher vs. team
Consider the park
Respect streaks at 3+ (particularly losing streaks, bad teams will find a way to lose)
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
Try not to lay runs
Look at the pitcher again

For more detail ...

Study both starting pitchers' recent starts. Remember, a starting pitcher is only as good as his last 2-3 starts.

Check how the pitchers have done over the course of their career on the field they're playing on. Players often perform well at certain parks for no apparent reason.

Similarly, check to see how a pitcher has done over the course of career vs. the current opponent.

Check the past couple of day's box scores to see how much the manager has worked the bullpen. A manager often has no plan to use certain pitchers in the game, because they've thrown too many innings in the past couple games. You can check these stats on Covers.com

However, it’s not enough to simply know that a team has a good bullpen.

You need to know how that bullpen has been used for the previous three nights.
Will the closer pitch?
Did he go two innings the game before?
Has the middle reliever been getting shelled?
How does he do against the lineup he's facing?

Consider learning to bet on totals; they are much easier to beat.

Check weather reports. Bad weather and/or winds may make for an easy under or over play.

Avoid accas.

Always consider underdogs first.

Study pitcher vs. hitter stats. Some hitters simply own certain pitchers and vice versa.

Learn about WHIP; it's one of the most important handicapping stats in baseball.

But mostly, it begins with starting pitching:

Who has the advantage that night?

How does each team hit this particular guy?

Look at runs scored and runs against over a pitcher's previous 10 games as a gauge instead of won-loss record.

Look at the pitchers who are lesser known and have made a few good starts, because they won't be valued like an elite pitcher yet.

An automatic play is a left-handed pitcher making his debut, or going through the league the first or second time.

Go against favourites who have a pitcher coming off the disabled list.

Moneylines

Every wiseguy worth his bankroll will tell you the first thing he looks for, odds-wise, when putting money on baseball is an underdog whose metrics scream bet me, or a small favourite.

For some that means a price that is no shorter than 1.75. Others go shorter, but almost no one goes shorter than 1.60.

Remember, in baseball, even the poor teams win more than 35 percent of their contests. That's roughly 60 games in which they were an underdog.

Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favourites: 69.7%
Road Favourites: 79.1%

Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals

Albert is finally beginning to heat up in a 3,4,5 that is hitting 21 homers, 78 ribbies and sporting a .423 OBP. The Brewers couldn't hit off a tee, managing just .157 during this 7 game nosedive.

Normally, I wouldn't touch 1.77, but in this case, with Gallardo (horrible) up against Lohse (not horrible) even that price may be value. Look for Milwaukee to continue to stink.

Pick: Cardinals @ 1.77

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

23-21 (+3.39pts)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

The Rays are banging after a slow start, whereas my boys are definitely not. Guthrie has particularly suffered from a lack of run support as he hasn't pitched half badly, but is only 1-4.

Hellickson has nice stuff and Tampa are surging, particularly on the road. They're value dogs here.

Pick: Rays @ 1.96

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

22-21 (+2.43pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Volquez is traditionally strong against the Cubs and the Reds are getting healthy and beginning to hit L10. Better than Evens represents the value here.

Pick: Reds @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

21-21 (+1.23pts)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

The Blue Jays can hit lefties (although Price is hardly your ordinary lefty and I wish Jose Bautista was fit) and Drabek got shelled last time out.

I like taking on low totals on get away days in the Florida sunshine

Pick: Over 7 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

21-20 (+2.23pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

Boston has OWNED the Halos this season; going 6-0 and out-scoring them 36-13 in the process. LA is having problems getting people home, hitting just .227 RISP and Josh Beckett may not do them any favours tonight.

Beckett is 0.81/3.00, Santana 1.65/6.35 WHIP/ERA L3. Beckett sports a sub single digit home ERA, so everything points to Boston taking it to 7-0. I can't have the price SU and, while I'm tempted to go Over (if the Angels start finishing, it'll skate Over) someone may get shut out, so I'll play the runline and hope the Red Sox keep rolling behind a stingy Beckett.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.35

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

21-20 (+2.23pts)

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Bottom of the AL in runs scored, slugging, ribbies, average and homers; the Twins are hitting like my nan, and she died in 1974. The White Sox are only marginally better.

With two teams stinking this badly, it's worth looking at Unders, because both Danks and Blackburn have the right stuff on their day. The problem is that these pitchers have started slowly too, and it's possible one of them may get reached for a bagful of runs today.

After Liriano's no-no last night, the force must be with Minnesota, but hitting .229 isn't going to inspire any confidence. The Chisox will be hacking away to erase last night, but Blackburn has fared well against them in the past and I'll be looking for him to rebound from his last start (I've got some interesting stats on rebounding pitchers, which I won't bore my reader with, in case he looks in) so I'll hope all the bats remain cold (the weather is encouraging) and both teams struggle to score.

Pick: Under 8.5 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

20-20 (+1.23pts)