Gallardo went into last night's pick with the most hits given up in the majors and an 8.89 ERA ... and takes a no-no into the eighth after I've opposed him
Keep away from short prices in baseball betting - I generally won't consider less than 1.75, but in truth don't like going below 1.9. Betting a whole season is a slog, and low prices will wear you out.
With last night's bitter lesson still fresh, I thought I'd share some material I've noted over the years that should improve your baseball bets.
The short checklist:
Look at pitcher
Look at pitcher vs. line-up
Look at pitcher vs. team
Consider the park
Respect streaks at 3+ (particularly losing streaks, bad teams will find a way to lose)
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
Try not to lay runs
Look at the pitcher again
For more detail ...
Study both starting pitchers' recent starts. Remember, a starting pitcher is only as good as his last 2-3 starts.
Check how the pitchers have done over the course of their career on the field they're playing on. Players often perform well at certain parks for no apparent reason.
Similarly, check to see how a pitcher has done over the course of career vs. the current opponent.
Check the past couple of day's box scores to see how much the manager has worked the bullpen. A manager often has no plan to use certain pitchers in the game, because they've thrown too many innings in the past couple games. You can check these stats on Covers.com
However, it’s not enough to simply know that a team has a good bullpen.
You need to know how that bullpen has been used for the previous three nights.
Will the closer pitch?
Did he go two innings the game before?
Has the middle reliever been getting shelled?
How does he do against the lineup he's facing?
Consider learning to bet on totals; they are much easier to beat.
Check weather reports. Bad weather and/or winds may make for an easy under or over play.
Avoid accas.
Always consider underdogs first.
Study pitcher vs. hitter stats. Some hitters simply own certain pitchers and vice versa.
Learn about WHIP; it's one of the most important handicapping stats in baseball.
But mostly, it begins with starting pitching:
Who has the advantage that night?
How does each team hit this particular guy?
Look at runs scored and runs against over a pitcher's previous 10 games as a gauge instead of won-loss record.
Look at the pitchers who are lesser known and have made a few good starts, because they won't be valued like an elite pitcher yet.
An automatic play is a left-handed pitcher making his debut, or going through the league the first or second time.
Go against favourites who have a pitcher coming off the disabled list.
Moneylines
Every wiseguy worth his bankroll will tell you the first thing he looks for, odds-wise, when putting money on baseball is an underdog whose metrics scream bet me, or a small favourite.
For some that means a price that is no shorter than 1.75. Others go shorter, but almost no one goes shorter than 1.60.
Remember, in baseball, even the poor teams win more than 35 percent of their contests. That's roughly 60 games in which they were an underdog.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.
Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favourites: 69.7%
Road Favourites: 79.1%