orioles

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

Bailey has never done well at Citizen's Bank Park, and Cincinnati have dropped 7 of their last 8, but I like Bailey, and the odds on offer are too attractive to swerve.

Bailey has a 0.90/2.25 WHIP/ERA L3 and while Lee is impressive too, the Phillies are hardly hitting the cover off the ball: the Reds are a live chance at the price.

Pick: Reds @ 2.35

*I take info from wherever I can get it, and so I have to work my way through quite a lot of stuff every night. Trends like this ...

The Reds are 10-0 since 2006 as a road dog of more than 130 when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had more than four hits, but had at least three times as many hits as runs.



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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

33-31 (+3.66pts) 

Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers

With the wind in from left at Comerica (which didn't rank in the top ten in hitting categories last year - but is still regarded as a hitters' park) the totals went 1-5 O/U (0-2 at this wind speed).

Now, betting the weather in the totals market isn't without its risks, but the latest update seems to confirm the forecast conditions, and with both these teams hitting .230 L10 it might be worth an interest.

The real risk is Sonnanstine, who since coming out of the bullpen has been variously savaged, and has an ERA above 6.00. Penny has been rather stronger, with a 1.82 ERA at home. The Rays' pen doesn't inspire either, but lets hope Penny and the weather can keep this low enough to collect. I certainly don't like the Tigers at the price.

Pick: Under 9 @ 1.87

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

33-31 (+3.66pts) 

St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

San Diego cannot hit and Lohse is suddenly pitching like a man possessed by an ace! That combination (and the fact that the Cards are the road team)is going to make me get greedy here.

Moseley has been horrible L3 - 2.02/8.16 WHIP/ERA with a .405 OBP, so it's unlikely that he's going to stun the surging Cards at the plate.

The 1.8 SU on offer for St. Louis is decent enough value, but I'm swinging for the fences: Lohse can close down the Padres and St Louis can tickle up Moseley.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.38

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

32-31 (+2.28pts) 

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

Both teams are hitting the ball. Boston are hitting .302 against lefties L10 and the Cubs .290 against lefties.

This does not bode well for the spot starters that both teams are sending to the mound tonight: and the numbers are ugly. Russell has 1.57/6.26 WHIP/ERA and Wakefield 1.37/5.40. Their numbers L3 are even uglier.

The result of these numbers is that Boston are less than 1.5 to win and the Totals line is out to 10.

Half the Cubs lineup haven't faced a knuckleballer before and Russell pitched three innings of scoreless relief against the Redsox - the only problem is, it was just two days ago and it could get very messy if the Red Sox get to him early.

One interesting note: knuckleballers do not like the wind gusting at their back (the knuckleball won't break) so look to see what the conditions are like come gametime, because the Cubs might be worth a small interest at the price if the wind shifts just a little.

As it is however, I'm interested in the general weather conditions, 'Mostly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 mph' suggests a miserable night and with Russell showing signs of life and Wakefield a new experience for much of the Chicago lineup, I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 10 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

31-31 (+1.37pts) 

Texas Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Lee is facing his old club and he's strong at home. Lewis is pitching nicely with a 0.83 WHIP L3. Neither of these teams is hitting that well at the moment .191/.237 L/R Texas/Phils.

Phils should take it, but they're mighty short. I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 1.91 (Betfred)

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

30-31 (+0.46pts) 

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles

The Nats humiliated the Birds last night, suddenly lighting it up at the plate.

Tonight's pitchers have struggled L3, with Lannan walking way too many and sporting an OBP of .424. Guthrie has been stronger at home, but I don't like the look of the losing streak and 1.6+ to back Baltimore is way too short for my taste.

That said, the Orioles will be looking for some payback tonight in a local derby at home, and Lannan can oblige. Check the weather just before the off, but I'll bet on runs tonight.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

29-31 (-0.54pts) 

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

I'm not a fan of interleague play, but this sort of matchup does make me get a little more excited. To any of you who enjoy the whole history of the game, the weft and weave of baseball, then this stirs the soul.

However, we're more interested in trying to remain ahead here after a tough week. I read an article asking if Doug Davis was the Cubs' saviour? Well, I doubt this journeyman with a repaired arm is, but he has enough stuff to make the price on offer tonight attractive.

Boston are on a tear, but Lester has rocked a little lately, issuing too many walks and given up too many homers, and I still have doubts about the back of the Boston pen. Davis is only having his second start, but he was solid against Giants and Boston are hitting .255 against lefties L10.

The Redsox have a few players who've faced Davis before, and only Varitek and Cameron have prospered against him. The Cubs have far less experience of Lester, although it should be noted that Pena has hit him hard.

This will be a great night ...

Friday will mark one of the biggest games on the MLB schedule in 2011 when the Cubs travel to Fenway Park to visit the Red Sox for the first time since the two sides squared off in the 1918 World Series. As you all remember quite vividly, Carl Mays defeated Lefty Tyler, 2-1, in Game 6 to give the Sox the 4-2 Series victory.

... and a little interest in the Cubbies might make it even greater. Enjoy!

Pick: Cubs @ 3.3

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

29-30 (+0.46pts) 

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Two pitchers who have been lights out L3. Bumgarner 1.00/1.89 WHIP/ERA; Billingsley 0.86/1.64. However, a closer look shows that Billingsley has the edge statistically in terms of the home/away breakdown, and this is reflected in his record against the Giants at Dodger Stadium - 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career outings. Sagarin also rates Billingsley well ahead of Bumgarner.

With those stats, I'd go Under, but with the line at 6/6.5 at 1.8+, I'm not keen on the price.

The Giants have the edge in the pen, but Wilson pitched last night and seemed to twist his ankle (although he carried on) so it may be that he's not available tonight. That said, the Dodgers late innings' position is even more confused, and Billingsley will need to pitch deep into this game.

A little more pop at the plate would be nice, and the price is skinny, but I'll take the home favourites. Just.

Pick: Dodgers @ 1.84

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

29-29 (+1.46pts)

Houston Astros @ St Louis Cardinals

Houston are really struggling to hit at the moment.

With some key injuries in the Card's powerhouse (Holliday and Berkman are out) the Unders looks attractive. Happ has been solid recently, but he's unlikely to get much run support and with poor weather around, I'll look for a low scoring game in a traditionally pitcher friendly park.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

28-29 (+0.51pts)

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland As

Oakland still aren't hitting and Gonzalez was lucky to get rained out after having a horrible last outing, giving up seven runs, six hits and five walks in 2 2-3 innings.

If Chatwood can keep people off base (he walks too many to live) the Angels are the value. He's on borrowed time, and I wouldn't like to see the Halos go to their pen, but I'll back them at the price.

Pick: Angels @ 2.38

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

28-28 (+1.51pts)