Bailey has never done well at Citizen's Bank Park, and Cincinnati have dropped 7 of their last 8, but I like Bailey, and the odds on offer are too attractive to swerve.
Bailey has a 0.90/2.25 WHIP/ERA L3 and while Lee is impressive too, the Phillies are hardly hitting the cover off the ball: the Reds are a live chance at the price.
Pick: Reds @ 2.35
*I take info from wherever I can get it, and so I have to work my way through quite a lot of stuff every night. Trends like this ...
The Reds are 10-0 since 2006 as a road dog of more than 130 when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had more than four hits, but had at least three times as many hits as runs.
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2011 Season (Level Stakes)
33-31 (+3.66pts)