orioles

San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals

Ryan Vogelsong has been pitching beautifully recently, sporting a 1.06/1.77 WHIP/ERA L3 and it makes it difficult to lay off the 2.5+ on offer. The fly in the ointment, the turd in the punchbowl, the rock in the bonbons, is the Giants' lack of offense. They're hitting .227 against righties L10 and Vogelsong has suffered somewhat as a result. Carpenter has gone a disappointing 1.35/5.23 L3, but has pitched well against the Giants in the past.

Sagarin has Vogelsong's Markov NPERA at 2.48 and Carpenter's at 4.63 and as a greedy punter, I'm going to take a small interest in the champs at the price.

Pick: Giants @ 2.51

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

38-35 (+4.86pts)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

The Brewers are rolling: until they get on the road. It's a bizarre split, and shows that they're hitting just .207 on the road against lefties, plating 1.56/9. They're 8-2 L10, a reverse of the Reds' 2-8, but Cincinnati have had a much tougher schedule over that period.

Add to this the fact that Narveson has been reached for 9 runs by the Reds earlier in the season, and Milwaukee's 1-10 record at Great American Ball Park, and you get them as a road dog tonight.

The two pitchers have done OK L3, with Narveson edging the ERA, but he has been putting more on. Neither are lock down pitchers and there's always a temptation to go Over at Great American Ball Park.

On balance, I'm going to take on the Total; I'm nervous about the Brewers' form away from Miller Park, and I don't trust either pitcher.

Pick: Over 9 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

37-35 (+3.95pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

Well, after the humiliation of the Dodgers' pick (in my defence, it can happen in baseball - but I still made a right berk of myself as Nolasco collapsed in a heap!) let's see if we can't go 2/3 tonight.

This matchup sees another two pitchers who are putting up stellar numbers.

In fact, the Totals analysis is worryingly similar to the Dodgers' game: 1.18/2.80 WHIP/ERA L3 for Cueto (in three meetings with the Braves, he has given up seven runs in 18 1/3 innings) and 0.92/1.66 for Jurrjens (10 earned runs in 57 2/3 innings). Similarly, both these pens are breathing heavily, and particularly Jurrjens needs to go deep in this one.

However, there doesn't seem to be a compelling reason to go Over, so I'll take my own advice.

Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.87

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

36-35 (+3.08pts)

Florida Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodger Stadium, two pitchers with very solid numbers, one team struggling to score, the other facing an unquestionable ace. Unders is a solid call.

Top tip - when the number is low, you better have a really good reason to go Over

However, I'm feeling greedy after Boston's disappointing showing*, and I'm going to back the Marlins to take the deciding rubber this afternoon. I'm worried that the Florida pen was used up last night, but Nolasco can go deep.

This promises to be a close, low scoring game, but it looks like the Marlins are for real and I give them the offensive edge that should get them home, just.

Pick: Marlins @ 2.16

*Did I say disappointing? I meant stellar

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

36-34 (+4.08pts)

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

A leftie prospect, first time up against a lineup, is usually worth a serious look, but the Bosox are rolling and hit lefties ok. Buchholz is 0.80/1.69 WHIP/ERA L3.

That'll do for me.

Pick: Red Sox @ 1.92

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

35-34 (+3.16pts)

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Take the Over. The Phils are hitting and Hamels has been reached for a few by the Mets in the past.

Pick: Over 7

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

35-34 (+3.16pts)

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

Sanchez has been strong L3 and has done better against the Brewers of late. It's difficult to predict how Wolf will pitch: he could just as easily get shelled as throw a beauty.

Sanchez has better numbers H/A, and at better than Evens, the Giants are decent value here, having taken the first of the set to make it five in a row at Miller Park, and eight of the last nine in Milwaukee.

Pick: Giants @ 2.3

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

35-33 (+4.16pts)

San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

These two teams are hitting .198/.234 respectively, and aren't making the highlights reel too often. Zimmerman is capable and has decent numbers L3: Stauffer does not and has allowed too many hits. However, he's done ok against the Nats in the past and can perhaps settle in better against this anaemic lineup.

Pick: Under 7 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

34-33 (+3.16pts)

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

Porcello has been mighty impressive recently(0.90/1.35 L3) and he'll need to be, against a Red Sox offense that is hammering the ball. However, they haven't seen much of Porcello, and betting young pitchers going up against lineups early in his career can be a profitable angle.

Wakefield has pitched well but (to continue the theme) some of the Tigers lineup have hit him well enough before, and he may struggle tonight.

I'll put a little Tiger in my tank (damn, that ages me!)

Pick: Tigers @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

34-32 (+4.16pts)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

The D'backs are charging, but Owings's numbers aren't inspiring. Mortensen is fighting hard to stay in the rotation, but is possibly putting too many on (1.34 WHIP/9BB L3) to hold the Arizona offense.

The value has to be the D'backs, who have won 10 of the last 12 and have all of the momentum; Colorado, on the other hand, are headed in the opposite direction, having lost 14 of the last 20.

A classic road dog bet.

Pick: Diamondbacks @ 2.5

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

33-32 (+2.66pts)