orioles

San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals

Ryan Vogelsong has been pitching beautifully recently, sporting a 1.06/1.77 WHIP/ERA L3 and it makes it difficult to lay off the 2.5+ on offer. The fly in the ointment, the turd in the punchbowl, the rock in the bonbons, is the Giants' lack of offense. They're hitting .227 against righties L10 and Vogelsong has suffered somewhat as a result. Carpenter has gone a disappointing 1.35/5.23 L3, but has pitched well against the Giants in the past.

Sagarin has Vogelsong's Markov NPERA at 2.48 and Carpenter's at 4.63 and as a greedy punter, I'm going to take a small interest in the champs at the price.

Pick: Giants @ 2.51

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

38-35 (+4.86pts)